power and developments Flashcards
define power
ability to influence the behaviour of others to get the outcomes one wants
ways of determining power
- capability- strength that a state possessed in terms of population, territory, resources, economic and military strength
- relationships- alliances, involvement in international organisations
- structural- shaping defoe regime and economic development, influencing beliefs
define hard power
coercive power wielded through threats like military intervention or economic sanctions
define soft power
ability of a state to persuade others to do what it wants without force or coercion through attractiveness of one’s culture and values
features of hard power and examples
- military power is the capacity of a state to commit an aggressive act against another state- US spends more in its military than the next 10 countries combined ($611 billion)
- economic power involves incentives or sanctions for a state to act according to the wishes of another state- EU and other countries has imposed sanctions against Russia in attempts to stop its conflict with Ukraine (€24.9 billion of assets frozen in EU and €91.2 billion banned imports from Russia)
- joseph nye used the analogy of military “sticks” and economic “carrots”
how is hard power effective
- effective response to terrorise like ISIS
- realist would agree states should use military force for their own survival
- economic globalisation has meant states compete through trade
how is hard power not effective
- military power can damage states’ reputation like US after Afghanistan and Iraq
- military conflict by stronger states is harder to combat
- economic sanctions only work in smaller countries
examples of soft power
UK- through imperialism, previous and current leading roles in international al organisations like UN security council helped to make it influential on a world stage
EU- single market is desirable for countries, strong voice
how is soft power effective
- goals are better achieved through cooperation
- freer flow of information means people are increasingly informed about foreign cultures
- spread of democracy
how is soft power not effective
- hard power can undermine soft power
- some goals, like stopping NK with nuclear weapons, can only be achieved through hard power
define smart power and give example
combination of hard and soft power
- Nye argues smart power was needed with Taliban governments, who required both force to remove the regime and mutual understanding when developing a relationship
- obama had both soft power (cairo speech promoting cooperation) and hard power (no tolerance to extremist threats)
define super power
state with a dominant position in the international systems which has the ability to influence events and its own interest and project power
define hegemonic stability theory
hegemony needed to ensure stability and prosperity
how is the US a super power
- population of 300 million
- high literacy rate and education
- key player in international organisation like UN- neo colonialism with Washington Consensus, help set up NATO
-worlds largest economy- 26% of worlds economy, $3363 billion revenue - second largest nuclear arsenal- 5,044 nuclear warheads
- influential american culture
- 1/3 of global military spending - 4.5 million firearms
- 17% of vote in IMF which can prevent 85% majority required for decisions
- Walmart is biggest TNC with $482 billion revenue
define great power
nation or state that has the ability to exert its influence on a. global scale, through its population, resources, economy, military strength and political stability
define emerging power
states that are emerging as powerful modern economies
why is US not a superpower
- suffered humiliating military defeats like 9/11
- rise of BRICs has limited USA’s structural power and limited its power in taking over Crimea or Syria
- deindustrialisation- decline of car manufacturing in detroit and rise in foreign competition
reasons for China potentially becoming a superpower
- rapid economic progress (annual growth rate of 8-10%)
- 2nd largest economy in the world
- labour force 800 million
- population of 1.4 billion
- 2nd largest military and has nuclear powers
- more international presence- member of G20, strong links with Australia and Central Africa
- shadow banking makes up 40-60% of GDP
- 17% of world GDP
- investment into Africa- Belt and road initiative
- increasing importance of their TNCs like Huawei- UK reversed decision to allow them to provide new 5g network due to concerns
- established asian infrastructure investment bank- provide loans without conditions like world bank
- forefront of military technology- cyber technology, hypersonic missiles
reasons for China not potentially becoming a superpower
- potential for political upheaval with communist regime
- does not have global reach
- lack of consumption and spending only 1/3 of China’s economy
- lack of welfare or pensions
- economy is unbalanced and unstable
- shadow banking crisis due to property prices rising
- average income per person under $4,000
define unipolarity and the different types
nature of international system at any given time in terms of how power is distributed
predatory hegemony- dominant power acts aggressively
benign hegemony- dominant power acts with good intentions
different views on unipolarity
- realists see unipolarity and hegemony as a natural consequence of states seeking power and security in anarchic system
- can act as worlds “police officer” by intervening in conflicts
- liberals argue unipolarity doesn’t lead to a benign force, and states are always desiring power
define bipolarity
international system that revolves around two poles, who are balanced in power
different views on bipolarity
- realists believe bipolarity is natural tendency, which leads to leave and stability
- liberals believe that one state will still aim to be the dominant power, which leads to tension and insecurity
- NATI vs Warsaw pact during Cold War
define multi polarity
international system where there are three or more powers
different views of multi polarity
- neorealists argue this is unstable as with more actors involved, this increases number of conflicts
- intensifies security dilemma
- liberals believe this is needed for world peace as it allows for greater cooperation and integration
world order during cold war
- bipolarity
- NATO vs warsaw pact
- matched military with armed forces of similar strengths and same number of nuclear warheads
- however, russia could never reach the same economic strength as US
world order with current US and Russia
- NATO expanded to incorporate former Warsaw Pact countries like Kosovo
- full of communism in russia
- russia is an energy superpower
world order with US being hegemon
- unipolarity
- largest economy and military
- “worlds police officer”
- some started to be anti american after war in terror ( malign hegemon- source of chaos and injustice)
- states by Krauthammer and Nye
world order being multipolar
- EU
- brazil- rich in natural resources and large population, however low literacy rates
- india- biggest population , world leader in computer software, Bollywood
- growth of china and US becoming too dominant
- strengthening of UN to keep world peace
- more non state actors like TNCs
world order being limited unipolar
- one power dominated but extent of that control is restrained
- US is interdependence on other countries, for example on resources or when getting involved in conflict
world order with weakening western orientation
- colonial empires collapse
- non western countries start to develop more
define cycle theories
- power changes over a period of a few decades to a century through “great power or systematic” wars
- political earthquakes that affects the status of declining powers and elevating rising powers
define chaos theory
evolution of power in the system in variable patterns
factors for change in a country’s power
- source of power- nuclear weapons capability means you have more relative power
- conditions within major actors- whether the people are willing to the the leader
- balance of power- alliances and avoidance of dominance as seen as France, China and Russia etc opposed US vs Iraq as they tried to resist the lead to hegemonic power
how has the US taken a more realist stance
- adopt more nationalist stance, “make america great again”, recognise Jerusalem as capital of Israel without consulting other countries
- putting own interests first- owes $200 million to WHO, criticised other states for using veto in UNSC when they use it themselves
reasons for russias power
- economic boom through expansion of oil and gas
- energy superpower- oil crisis after Ukraine war, supplied 40% of EU oil
- assertive- crimea, georgia, ukraine
- spend $86 billion on military
- largest nuclear arsenal- 5,889
- signed mutual defence treaty with NK
- despite not being in NATO, still has friendly relations with countries like Turkey
- links to other countries- exports weapons to India, fertiliser to Brazil- reluctant to condemn russias violence
reasons for russia lacking power
- economy lacks diversity- relies on energy exports, not renewable
- economy only ranks 9th globally
- sanctions impact from conflict
- reputation is damaged due to cyberwarfare so they lack soft power
reasons for brazil emerging power
- 9th largest economy
- rich in natural resources like iron and timber
- population of over 200 million
reasons for lack of brazil power
- social inequalities
- high public debt of 75% of GDP
- subject to organised crime
reasons for india power
- 5th largest economy
- biggest population- youthful and big middle class
- bollywood- 1 billion more viewers than hollywood
- 3rd largest military
reasons for lack of india power
- social inequalities, especially with women
- 10% of population live in poverty
- air pollution problems
reasons for iran’s power
- youthful population
- US intelligence fearful of ability to develop nuclear weapons
- support for hamas- attacked israel in 2024
