Risk Flashcards
Monitor Risks Key Inputs
Work Performance data
Work Performance Reports
What is Risk Mgmt
Conducting risk mgmt
Planning
Identification
Analysis
Response Planning
Response Implementation
Monitoring riskWhat are the processes of Risk Mgmt
- Plan Risk Mgmt
- Identify Risks
- Perform QUALITATIVE risk Analysis
- Perform QUANTITATIVE Risk Analysis
- Plan Risk Responses
- Implement risk responses
- Monitor Risks
What is plan risk Mgmt
How to conduct risk mgmt activities
What is Identify Risks
Identifying Individual and overall project risks
What is Perform QUALITATIVE Risk Analysis
Prioritizing INDIVIDUAL risks
probability of impact
What QUANTITATIVE Risk Analysis
Numerically analysis
Combined effect of INDIVIDUAL risks
What is “Plan Risk Responses”
Options Strategies Agreeing Overall risk exposure Treat INDIVIDUAL Risks
What is “Monitor Risks”
Agreed upon risk response plans
tracking identifies risks
Analyzing new risks
Evaluating risk process efficacy
Individual Project risk
Uncertain event or condition
+/- effect on project objectives
Overall Project Risk
Uncertainty of whole project
From All sources of uncertainty and Individual Risks
Exposure of Stakeholders
When is risk first addressed
During project planning
Shapes project strategy
Risk Thresholds
Measured
Reflect Stakeholder appetite
What are Non-event risks
Risks not considered
Variability Risk
Uncertainty about some key characteristic
Ambiguity Risk
Uncertainty about some future event
Monte Carlo
Project Resilience
Unknowable-Unknowns
Can only be recognized after they occur
Need budget and schedule contingency
Need Flexible project processes
Integrated Risk Mgmt
Risks should be owned by program or portfolio as required
Plan Risk Mgmt Tools and Techniques
MED
Meetings
Expert Judgement
Data Analysis
When is Risk Mgmt Plan written
Plan Risk Mgmt
Components of Risk Mgmt Plan
Risk Strategy Methodology Roles and Responsibilities Funding (inc. Funding and Mgmt Reserve) Timing Risk Categories
Risk Breakdown structure
Hierarchical representation of sources of risk
Major Categories; e.g. Technical, External
Considers full range of sources
How should stakeholder appetites be reflected
Measurable risk thresholds
Definitions of levels of risk probability and impacts
Number of levels reflect degree of detail
e.g. Scale (very high-Nil) Probability (>70% - < 1%) Time Cost Quality
Probability and Impact Matrix
Probability versus Impact chart
“Identify Risks” Tools and Techniques
P(R)IMED2 Prompt Lists Interpersonal Skills Meetings Expert Judgement Data Gathering Data Analysis (e.g. SWOT)
Prompt Lists
Does “Identify Risks” consider both individual and overall project risk
Yes
Requirements Mgmt Plan
Component of PMP
Describes how rqmts will be treated
Key Inputs to “Identify Risks”
ABCS-PLAID -R2 Assumption Log Baselines Cost estimates Stakeholder register Procurement Documentation Lesson Learned Register Agreements (External Procurement of resources) Issue Log Duration estimates Rqmts Mgmt Plan Resource Rqmts
Risk Report
Sources of OVERALL project risk
Summary information on individual project risks
“Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis”
Process of prioritizing INDIVIDUAL project risks
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Tools and Techniques
DIMER-D2 Data Analysis Interpersonal skills Meetings Expert Judgement Risk Categorization Data Gathering Data Representation
Risk Categorization
Priority of INDIVIDUAL project risks
Probability
Impact
Assessments are subjective
What are the components of “QUALITATIVE” data analysis
Risk Data Quality Assessment
Risk Probability and Impact assessment
Assessment of other risk parameters
Urgency
Period of time to implement risk response
Proximity
When will the risk have an impact
Dormancy
How long after risk occurred will we know about it
Manageability
How well risk owner can manage the TIME of a risk occurring and/or its impact
Controllability
How well risk owner can control risk OUTCOME
Detectability
How easily can we detect risk beginning to occur
Connectivity
How is risk related to other INDIVIDUAL risks
Strategic Impact
Can risk affect organization’s strategic goals
Propinquity
How much a risk matters to more than one stakeholder
Propinquity is high if risk is very significant
Probability and impact matrix
Grid for mapping probability of each occurrence and its outcome on X-Y graph
Hierarchical Charts
e.g. Bubble charts for showing 3 dimensions of data
Documents: Assumption Log
For QUALITATIVE risk analysis
Documents: Risk Register
Updated with information for QUALITATIVE risk analysis
Documents: Risk Report
Most important individual risks
Prioritized list of all identified risks and summary conclusion
QUANTITATIVE risk analysis
Numerically analyzing combined effect of identified INDIVIDUAL risks and other sources of uncertainty
QUANTITATIVE Tools and Techniques
D-DIRE Data Analysis Simulation Sensitivity Analysis Decision Tree Analysis Influence Diagrams Data Gathering Interpersonal Skills Representations of Uncertainty Expert Judgement
How are outputs of QUANTITATIVE risk analysis used
As inputs to “Plan Risk Responses”
Project Documents
Basis of Estimates Cost Estimates Cost Forecasts Duration estimates Milestone list
Why is Basis of estimates used
For variability model during a QUANTITATIVE risk analysis
Why are cost forecasts used
EAC, ETC, BAC and TCPI may be compared to results of QUANTITATIVE risk analysis
Why are Duration Estimates used
They provide the starting point from which schedule variability is evaluated
What are Representations of Uncertainty
If Duration, Cost, or Resource rqmt is uncertain, use range of possible values modeled ads probability distribution
How is probability distributions of Representations of Uncertainty represented?
Triangular Normal Lognormal Beta, Uniform Discrete
How is sensitivity analysis used
What individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty could have the most impact
Tornado Diagram
Bar chart
Shows correlation for each element of quantitative risk analysis model
Decision Tree
Uses nodes and branches (e.g. Decision Node, Chance Node)
Shows net path value for each path
Influence Diagrams
Shows decision making under uncertainty
Represent project risks as ranges of uncertainty
Monte Carlo Analysis
QUANTITATIVE Outputs
Assessment of OVERALL risk exposure Probabilistic Analysis Prioritized risks Trends Recommended risk responses
What is Risk Data Quality Assessment
Is risk data accurate and reliable?
Risk Probability and Impact assessment
Assessment of other risk parameters
What are the components of data analysis for QUALITATIVE risk analysis
Simulation
Sensitivity Analysis
Decision Tree Analysis
Influence Diagrams
