Re-Examining Technology S-Curves

Question 1

Main argument

Answer 1

Understanding the rate of substitution entails a joint consideration of the evolution of old and new technologies

Question 2

S-curve

Answer 2

Recognised representation of the technology life cycle and the competition between old and new technologies

Question 3

Rogers five attributes that determine pace of adoption

Answer 3

Relative advantage
Compatibility
Complexity
Trial ability
Observability

Question 4

Two distinct effects on performance of system

Answer 4

1. Performance can be hindered by technical bottlenecks

2. Performance can be increased when improvements in the ecosystem elements offset maturity in focal tech

Question 5

Ecosystem emergence challenge - extension opportunity S curve

Answer 5

If emergence challenge is high and there are high extension opportunities, the rate of substitution is low

Question 6

Three modes that affect rate of substitution

Answer 6

1. Pace slowed by last effort to prolong life of old tech
2. R&D aimed to resolve the emergence challenges
3. Participants all engaged in last resort practices as were collectively unable to overcome emergence challenge