Poverty and Violent Conflict - Justino 2009 Flashcards
Paola's Slides
direct impact of violence
- household breakdown
- change in assets in livelihoods
- displacement
indirect impact of violence
- on local markets
- on community relations
- on political institutions
- on economic growth and distribution
direct effects of household breakdown
- loss of earnings, assets, livelihoods
- loss of human capital: education and health
indirect effects of household breakdown
- loss or disability of prime age workers (replaced by women and children) -> children removed from school
- social burden imposed on remaining household members to care for the injured and disabled
effects of change of assets
- assets get lost or destroyed through heavy fighting and looting
- houses, land, labor, utensils, cattle, livestock
- households left without means of earning a living or providing food and shelter for their members
effects of change of livelihoods agri
- armed conflict affects the rural sector; only rarely do armies and armed groups fight in cities
- agriculture sector and agriculture-based livelihoods recover very slowly in the post conflict period
channels of impact of conflict on rural livelihoods
- destruction due to fighting: loss of fields, crops, landmines
- expropriation of land
- displacement of people
- destruction of trade markets or limited access to them
effects of change of livelihood economic
- losses impact on ability to recover economic and social position in post-conflict settings
- net effects (some people gain): looting, redistribution of assets, privileged access to market and political institutions for those that win the conflict or support winning factions during the conflict
displacement
- armed conflict associated with large population movements
- forces families to leave behind assets and have to start anew (often times they can’t)
civilian populations targets for armies and rebel groups
- territorial expansion
- weaken population support
- increase support base
- add to resources through looting and appropriation of valuable assets and sites
cycle of displacement and deprivation
- refugees and displaced populations living under most difficult forms of socio-economic exclusion and deprivation
- healthcare stretched in camps; lack of food, nutrients and medicine
- spread of infectious diseases
breakdown of families and social networks
- disrupts risk sharing mechanisms amongst affected communities
- disrupts formal and informal social protection mechanisms, such as loans from relatives and acquaintances
- disrupts health
indirect impact of violence on exchange markets
exchange markets -> changes in prices (staple goods tend to increase; cattle decreases) -> food insecurity
indirect impact of violence on employment markets
employment markets-> changes in wages -> may affect soldiering choices
indirect impact of violence on insurance and credit markets
insurance and credit markets -> changes in savings -> rely on costly coping strategies with adverse health effects (child labor)
net impact of violence on local markets
- initial conditions (wealth and health endowments)
- ability to adapt
- idiosyncratic shock (selective violence)
- covariant shock (indiscriminate violence)
indirect impact of violence on community relations
- destruction of networks and community relations due to: death, abductions, displacement, loss of trust
- networks and community relations are crucial elements of the capital of the poor
impact of changes on household poverty will depend on
- initial characteristics and alliances of households at the start of the conflict
- extent of the breakdown of social cohesion during the conflict
- strength and types of new networks and alliances formed during and after the conflict
indirect impact of violence on political institutions
- structure of political institutions
- relations between populations, political institutions, security forces, economic political elites and the legal-judiciary system
- war results from and leads to forms of state and governance failure and the weakness of state institutions
armed conflict is likely to impact those in conflict areas
- changes in provision of public goods, physical security, and protection of property rights
- effects worse for
- households on welfare
- households whose members are more likely to be targets of violence due to inherent characteristics
t/f strong rebel governance tends to increase the duration of irregular wars, and create strong social interactions and alliances between rebels and community members
true
- government often persists during violence, usually by institutional changes rather than anarchy
indirect impact of violence on economic growth
- damage to infrastructure, markets, and social cohesion
- decrease in public and private investments (health)
- increases in military budgets at the expense of social expenditure
- deaths, injuries, loss of assets, displacement, and migration result in destruction of valuable human and physical capital
- armed conflict affects capacity of responding to other shocks
indirect impact of violence on inequality
- little evidence on impact of conflict on inequality, but violence likely to lead to profound social transformations
- improved inequalities after the conflict (the wealthy are often targets)
participation is a function of two interdependent variables
- the first is initial household characteristics, which determine the extent of the household’s vulnerability to poverty
- the second is the extent of the exposure of the household to violence during conflict or, in other words, its vulnerability to violence
H1 for Justino
the poorer the household is at the start of the conflict, the higher is the probability of the household participating and supporting an armed group
H2 for Justino
the higher the risk of violence, the higher is the probability of the household participating and supporting an armed group
