A Closer Look at Diamonds, Oil, and Civil War Flashcards
three research questions for ross
- how do different types natural resource wealth affect the onset of civil war
- what causal mechanisms link mineral wealth to civil war onset
- how does resource wealth affect the duration of civil wars
what is contraband
any resource under the control of a rebel group
- fearon definition: includes narcotics, gemstones and other illicit substances
H1 Ross
Resource Wealth Increases the Value of the State as a Target
H2 Ross
Resource Wealth Increases the Value of Sovereignty in Mineral Rich Regions
H3 Ross
Resource Wealth Helps Fund Rebel Organizations
H4 Ross
Resource Wealth Causes Conflict by Weakening the State
H5 Ross
Resource Wealth Leads to Conflict Through Trade Shocks
H6 Ross
Resource and Mineral Wealth May Increase the Duration of War
Fuel onshore findings
robust positive correlation between onshore fuel production and the likelihood of civil war
Fuel offshore findings
Associated with an increased risk of national and nonethnic conflicts but a reduced risk of smaller conflicts
what is the reason for the difference between offshore and onshore fuel
oil wealth concentrated on land may be more accessible to rebel groups, but offshore is harder to capture
findings for primary diamonds
associated with onset in eight out of nine models
findings for secondary diamonds
associated with civil war in separatist conflicts
findings for trade shocks H5
they do play a role, with negative shocks linked to separatist conflicts and positive shocks linked to national conflicts
findings for sovereignty H2
- resource wealth can motivate separatist movements by increasing the benefits or reducing the costs of sovereignty
- fuel rents onshore and non fuel rents onshore correlate with separatist conflict onset but fuel offshore does not
findings for duration against the resource variables
no statistically significant relationship between duration and resources
what had a robust impact on duration
the presence of contraband
- even when controlling for regional differences and testing against multiple models
- cannot establish reason or the direction of causality
