Does Warfare Matter? Flashcards
Balcells and Kalyvas
what are the research questions of this B and K
What causes certain technologies of rebellion to prevail
- how do these technologies impact civil wars?
over-aggregating has not
always helped civil war studies
aim of the B and K paper
disaggregate civil wars by virtue of their technology of rebellion
what is technology of rebellion
compares the respective military capacities of states and rebels and their interactions
what are the four categories in B and K
- duration
- severity
- civilian victimization
- civil war outcomes
high military capacity of state and rebels =
conventional civil wars
high military capacity of state but low for rebels =
irregular civil wars (insurgencies)
low military capacity of state high for rebels =
military coups (we dont care tho)
low military capacity of state low for rebels =
symmetric nonconventional wars (SNC)
duration hypothesis for B and K
irregular conflicts will last the longest, followed by SNC conflicts and conventional conflicts will last for the shortest amount of time
battle-related deaths (severity) hypothesis for B and K
conventional conflicts are more lethal than irregular or SNC conflicts
civilian victimization hypothesis for B and K
civilian victimization is likely to be highest with an irregular conflict
civil war outcomes hypothesis for B and K
Rebel victories are likely to occur more often with conventional or SNC conflicts than with irregular conflicts
findings for duration for B and K
- irregular conflicts last longer than SNC or conventional ones
- No support that SNC conflicts last longer than conventional
- irregular wars last than more than twice as long as conventional and SNC wars
findings for severity for B and K
- conventional conflicts result in the highest number of battle related deaths
- democracy, ethnic fractionalization, and support for the government reduce the number of battle related deaths
- support for rebels increases severity
findings for civilian victimization for B and K
- irregular wars are more harmful for civilians than the other types
- highest civilian victimization variables: oil exporter countries, poorer countries, countries with rough terrains
- post cold war civil wars are less harmful for civilians as compared to their predecessors
findings for civil war outcomes for B and K
- for incumbent wins, conventional wars are significantly less likely to result in a government victory because they are protracted
- for draw, SNC wars have a positive value, meaning they are more likely to end in a settlement compared to irregular wars
- for rebel wins, conventional wars provide rebels with a better chance of victory compared to other war types
