Lecture 4

Question 1

what do fearon and laitin consider to be robust predictors of civil war

Answer 1

• state institutional capacity and strength, and most importantly per capita income are robust
• ethnic and cultural diversity have little predictive power

Question 2

what do collier and hoeffler consider to be robust predictors of civil war

Answer 2

economic opportunities - maybe greed-motivated - as well as military and financial feasibility most strongly predict whether civil war occurs, while grievance does not

Question 3

why are there different conclusions of studies adopt the same empirical strategy (5 things)

Answer 3

• different interpretations to key variables like per capita income, opportunity cost for potential rebels v. correlation with state capacity
• different coding for civil wars onset
• estimates are sensitive to the explanatory variables employed
• inconsistency lies in the somewhat ad hoc empirical models
• the country level of analysis has inherent limitations

Question 4

three main challenges with conflict research

Answer 4

• search for exogeneity: income and conflict suffer from reversal causality - econometric method
• more detailed and theoretically motivated measurement for natural resources in particular
• integration with case studies / going beyond the nation state

Question 5

conceptualization of the causes and triggers of conflict based on

Answer 5

• macro causes of conflict
• micro-level evidence on the causes of conflict

Question 6

examples of macro causes of conflict

Answer 6

• low national incomes are almost always associated with the occurrence of civil wars
• factors that facilitate insurgencies: mountains and forests
• natural resources (mixed evidence)
• empirical cross-sectional literature finds no empirical evidence for grievances

Question 7

examples of micro causes of conflict

Answer 7

• the roots of individual participation in armed groups
• the role of internal geography in influencing where and when civil conflicts are fought
• the organization and conduct of conflict

Question 8

traits of lasting wars

Answer 8

• involve guerilla movements
• conflicts over land or natural resources by ethnic groups
• rebels financed through opium, diamonds or coca
• a few large ethnic groups (polarization)
• large forest cover
• presence of weak state institutions
• mixed evidence on external intervention

Question 9

the resource curse

Answer 9

states that are rich in natural resources tend to show higher levels of conflict

Question 10

climate change and conflict

Answer 10

• some research has shown that higher temperatures and decreased rainfall tend to increase violence in subsequent years
• weather shocks can also lead to growth in GDP for countries that rely on rain fed agri
• there is a relationship but dispute remains about its magnitude