LEC6: Postmodern War Osinga Flashcards
What is the Warden’s Five Rings model?
- Leadership: Targeting the enemy’s leadership to disrupt command and control.
- Organic/System Essentials/Key Production: Attacking the enemy’s essential systems and key production capabilities.
- Infrastructure: Damaging the infrastructure necessary for the enemy’s operations.
- Population: Affecting the population to reduce the enemy’s morale and support.
- Fielded Military Forces: Directly engaging the enemy’s military capabilities.
Each level or “ring” is seen as a critical point that, when attacked, can lead to the paralysis of the enemy’s forces. The central idea is to cause physical paralysis by attacking as many rings as possible, with special emphasis on taking out the center ring, the enemy’s leadership1. This strategic approach is designed to optimize strike attacks and achieve total system failure in the enemy’s operations. The model has been applied to various contexts, including understanding and attacking terrorist organizations2.
What is Parallel Warfare (Deptula)
The simultaneous attack of key nodes to cause a cascading deterioration of the enemy’s ability to function as a system.
Simultaneous intime, in distance, and through all levels
What are the Benefits of Western Military Superiority OSINGA
*Theater-wide air superiority
*Unhindered surveillance
*Strategic strike options
*Coercive diplomacy enhancement
*High intensity/high tempo campaign
*Destroys opponent’s C2 and ground assets
*Reduces risk for own troops
*Reduces political risks
*Allows low risk commitment
*Offers rapid & precise force protection capabilities in Peace Operations
*Asymmetric edge in COIN
*Counter-terrorism options
What is Europe’s Strategic Culture 1990-2000 (Osinga)
*Post modern/multilateralism
*Cooperation & Soft power
*Universal appeal of liberalism
*Democratic peace thesis
*War is weakness
*Crisis management
*Risk prevention
*Normative/legitimizing function of Int’l orgs
*11/9/89 Berlin Wall defining moment
*Humanitarian values & human security
*Wars of choice & Casualty aversion
What is War Amongst the People Osinga?
- The ends for which we fight are changing from the hard objectives that decide a political outcome to those of establishing conditions in which the outcome may be decided
- We fight amongst the people, not on the battlefield
- Our conflicts tend to be timeless, even unending
- We fight so as to proeserve the force rather than risking all to gain the objective
- The sides are mostly non-state, comprising some form of multinational grouping against some non-state party or parties.
What are the elements to creating effective coercive diplomacy strategy (Osinga)
1.Credible implementation of the ideal policy comprising:
✓A threat of force to defeat the opponent or deny him his objectives quickly with little costs, backed by the necessary capability
✓A deadline for compliance
✓An assurance to the adversary against future demands
✓An offer of carrots for compliance
2.Opponent prefers to comply rather than to lose a war
3.Opponent acts rationally and does not miscalculate or suffer from misperceptions
What are Counter-Coercion methods?
- Threaten casualties thus increasing cost for coercer
- Threaten coalition break-up
- Stall, deceive
- Threaten acceleration of atrocities
- Induce and exploit civilian casualties.
What are symptons of low commitment?
*Limited mandate
*Dual key arrangement
*StrictROE
*AdditionalSPINS fortactics& bombload
*Political involvement/top level scrutinyin tacticaltarget selection
*No groundtroops
*Pull back aftersmall losses
*Pin-prickstrikes
What is the Political perspective on war OSINGA?
Clausewitz
Instrumental/rational perspective
Legitimate instrument of state policy
Balancing act: people, forces, gov
What is the Eschatological view on war (OSINGA)?
Teleological view of history
Grand design: materialist, metaphysical
Messianic or global
Inevitable
AQ, communism, fascism
What is Spectator Sport Warfare/Virtuos wars? OSINGA
- Sanctions of war
- Wars are localized in geographically distant areas and not tied to a global level confrontation
- The enemy is defined largely in terms of a leader/regime of the target state, rather than its people or even its military forces
- There is a desire to minimize civilian casualties
- Wars are fought mainly by highly skilled professionals
- Desire to minimize casualities among these forces
What are Putin’s targets?
1.Destabilization of transatlantic area
2.Conventional advantage over neighbours
3.Missile advantage over Europe
4.Nuclear advantage over al
What are Osinga’s identified trends since the 90’s?
1990-2000
- Emergence of post-modern war: impact of information revolution, precision weapons, emerging societal norms, increasing legalistic perspective
- Failure of 1st gen peacekeeping, evolution, towards 3th and 4th gen warfare
- Rediscovery of coercive diplomacy
- Wars of choice/limited aims/huminatarian impulse in ‘total’ civil wars
- Emergence of human security and R2p
2001-2010
- Rediscovery of irregular warfare/counter-insurgency
- Relevance of high tech in IW/CT
- Proliferation of unmanned systems
- Aspirations & Illusions of liberal statebuilding
- Dillema’s of asymmetric Warfare & Lawfare
- Increasing impact of Web 2.0 virtual war
2010-now
- Rediscovery of deterrence & large scale conventional warfare
- The rise of cyberwar/Hybrid threats
- Emergence of Autonomous weapon systems
- Increasing use of proxy warfare
