LEC5: Nuclear Deterrence Flashcards
What is Orwell’s “You and the Atomic Bomb” about?
8 Elements:
1.Discussion –“Considering how likely we all are to be blown to pieces by it within the next five years, the atomic bomb has not roused so much discussion as might have been expected
2.Proliferation –“manufacture demands an enormous industrial effort, such as only three or four countries in the world are capable of making i
3.Bipolarity in the Cold War -“So we have before us the prospect of two or three monstrous super-states, each possessed of a weapon by which millions of people can be wiped out in a few seconds, dividing the world between the
4.Mutual Deterrence –“But suppose –and really this the likeliest development –that the surviving great nations make a tacit agreement never to use the atomic bomb against one another?”
5. Proxy wars between the two blocks –“So we have before us the prospect of two or three monstrous super-states […] power is concentrated in still fewer hands and […] the outlook for subject peoples and oppressed classes is still more hopeless
6. MAD –“man is in danger of destroying himself with his own weapons”
7. Impact on domestic social structures -“in a state which was at once unconquerable and in a permanent state of ‘cold war’ with its neighbors.”
8. Impact on warfare. -“[If it remains] “a rare and costly object as difficult to produce as a battleship, it is likelier to put an end to large-scale wars at the cost of prolonging indefinitely a ‘peace that is no peace
What is Fission and Fusion?
Fission – splittingatoms - AtomicBomb/A-Bomb
Fusion - combiningatoms -Hydrogen / Hbomb - Thermonuclearweapon
What is an Nuclear Weapon?
Nuclear weapons are explosive devices that derive their destructive force from fission or fusion, or a combination of these.
What are the Direct and Indirect effects of nuclear weapons?
Direct
1. Blast
2. Thermal
Indirect
1. Electromagnetic pulse
2. Radar blackout
3. Ionizing radiation
What is the Nuclear Triad?
The nuclear triad is a three-pronged military force structure that a country uses for its nuclear arsenal¹. It consists of:
- Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs): These are missiles that can be launched from land to reach targets across continents¹.
- Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs): These are missiles that are launched from submarines¹.
- Strategic bombers: These are aircraft equipped with nuclear bombs and missiles¹.
The purpose of having this triad is to prevent an enemy from destroying all of a nation’s nuclear forces in a first-strike attack¹. This ensures that the nation can still retaliate with a second strike, thereby increasing its nuclear deterrence¹. Currently, only four countries are known to have a nuclear triad: the United States, Russia, India, and China¹.
What is the legality of nuclear weapons? (ICJ 1996)
The International Court of Justice gave an advisory opinion stating that there is no source of law, customary or treaty, that explicitly prohibits the possession or even use of nuclear weapons. The only requirement being that their use must be in conformity with the law on self-defence and principles of international humanitarian law
What is NPT?
The NPT, or the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, is an international treaty with three main objectives²³:
- Non-Proliferation: To prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology²³.
- Disarmament: To promote nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament²³.
- Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy: To promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy²³.
The treaty was opened for signature in 1968 and entered into force in 1970²³. As of now, 191 states have joined the treaty²³. It represents the only binding commitment in a multilateral treaty to the goal of disarmament by the nuclear-weapon States³. The treaty is regarded as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime³.
What was the impact of the end of WWII on the world order?
Resolved the ‘German issue’, created a ‘Soviet issue’
Destroyed the balance of power in Europe and Asia.
Led to a confrontation between two ideologies claiming global authority. Shaped truly global geo-politics and geo-strategy.
Ended European domination of world politics
Promoted the United States to the rank of first-class superpower
Entangled the United States in European security affairs
Also:
*United Europe.
*Accelerated decolonization *Established the United Nations and the IMF and World Bank
*Led to international war crimes trials *Accelerated social change everywhere
*Accelerated progress in both theoretical and experimental nuclear physics –leading to nuclear weapons
*changed the conduct and goals of foreign polic
Sketch a general Cold War Timeline
Explain bipolarity in the cold war
1.Each superpower was, globally, the sole major threat to the other;
2.They were deadly ideological rivals; 3.Their political differences, especially with respect to Central Europe, were non-negotiable.
Overview:
- The conflict was about both ideology and geopolitics. Both factors are equally important to understand the confli
- Soviet and US interests were incompatible ideologically and geopolitically
- Neither side wanted war. But both genuinely believed they had good reason to fear attack
- By the mid-1950 both sides were a military threat to the opponent
- The Cold War was a duel on a larger scale –but based on escalation
- Despite the fact that neither party desired war, the Cold War was extraordinarily dangerous.
What is Mutual Deterrence /Nuclear Strategy
- Nuclear weapons seem to be to be too powerful and too destructive, if used, to serve any political ends.
- If nuclear weapons are held by both sides in a war, decisive military victory becomes impossible.
- A nuclear-armed state can defeat an enemy without first defeating its armed forces,
- Nuclear weapons raise the threshold for the resort to force.
- nuclear weapons have the effect of freezing conditions of political confrontation.
What is Deterrence?
*The essence of deterrence is that the force that would be used in response to an attack is thought to be so destructive that the price is too high to attack.
*The side that has to think the price is too high is the side that decides on whether to attack first. You may have the best weapon in the world to respond to an attack, but for it to work your opponent has to think you have those weapons too.
*For mutual deterrence to work, both sides have to think that of the other side, so both sides have to have a second strike capability –or at least make their opponent believe they do
What is Orwell’s opinion on proxy wars?
Unable to conquer one another, they are likely to continue ruling the world between them” (Orwell)
What is the current situation regarding nuclear war?
Current Situation
*27 February 2023-Putin (publicly) put Russian nuclear forces on high alert
*19 March 2023 -RF claims use of Hypersonic Missile Kinzhal
*14 April 2023-RF warns of nuclear weapons in Baltic if Sweden and Finland join NATO
*Feb 2024 –Medvedev threatens the use of nuclear weapons
