LEC13: The future of war Flashcards
Can we predict the future of warfare?
*rarely have even the most brilliant analysts accurately predicted what the character of the next war will look like (see Freedman 2017 for an overview)
*The future cannot be predicted in any useful detail; uncertainty does rule. (Gray 2008)
How can we identify trends in war?
when forecasting the future operational environment, analysts should start by charting how broad trends condition the choices available to actors engaged in strategic competition, confrontation, and conflict. (Norwood 2016
Explain the trend of Power Transition:
POWER TRANSITION 1: THE END OF U.S. HEGEMONY?
The Rise of China - Thucydides Trap?Return of high-intensity warfare? (Ukraine 2022 / Taiwan …? Ukraine as an Example?)
POWER TRANSITION 2: THE FRACTURING OF STATES?
From Hierarchy to Heterarchy?Growing fracturing of states (Scottish independence?)
Rise of cities / return of city states?New actors – violent non—state groups
*Influential individuals - Musk
Is there a return to Urban Warfare?
Non-state actors like terrorists, organised criminals or insurgents, who are trying to replace or weaken the nation state, mostly thrive in cities. Cities, and especially megacities, will be the focal point of future conflicts. In 2030, 60 % of the global population will live in cities.
What is Four Floor War?
We are going to be on the top floor of a skyscraper… evacuating civilians and helping people. The middle floor, we might be detaining really bad people that we’ve caught. On the first floor we will be down there killing them. …At the same time they will be getting away through the subway or subterrain. How do we train to fight that? Because it is coming, that fight right there is coming I do believe with all my heart. (U.S. Brigadier General Alford 2015
What is the effect of the return of urban warfare on how wars are fought?
*In such settings, air power will be less effective and ground forces vulnerable. *States will need to invest in (AI supported) intelligence and targeting networks, using all available sensors to their advantage. They are likely to develop evermore precise weaponry, and reinforce their soldiers with mini-drones and vehicles, non-lethal weaponry, facial recognition, biometric and biochemical sensing systems, counter-sniper, counter-IED, and counter-drone technologies.
*They will also need to develop new organisational structures – using smaller, more modular but better protected units surrounded by a perimeter of electronic eyes and ea
What is the role of climate change in changing warfare?
- Northern Sea Route viable option.
- Resource wars
What do the revolutions in technology for warfare entail?
RMA = radical change in military doctrines, strategies, tactics, and methods of warfare under the influence of new military technologies
*Key Revolutions
*New Domains
*Cyber
*Space
*Cognitive Domain
*New Actors
*Robotics and AI
What does the new dimension cyber entail?
Cyberspace a New Domain of Warfare
Cyber war “denotes military conflict using information technology.”
Cyber war is thus the virtual use of military power to achieve a political goal, as with the use of conventional armed forces. It is debatable whether cyber warfare requires a direct kinetic effect in the physical world. So far, however, the classic characteristics of war, such as physical violence or ongoing conflicts, can hardly be identified in events previously referred to as cyber wars.
Cyber-espionage, terrorism, criminality (Rid 2012)
What does the space dimension of war entail?
5th dimension of war.
space has been militarised since the beginning of the space age, with both the US and erstwhile Soviet Union using satellites for gathering ISR data, satellite communications, and for strategic functions including nuclear command, communications, and control, and missile early warning service.
Why it becomes more contested: falling launch cost AND reusable launch technologies
For warfighting, new technologies opens the potential for dramatically different ways to employ space power, by projecting military effect from earth into space, through space, and from space against the earth, in a manner much more rapidly than would be possible with traditional expendable multistage rockets
What are the capabilities of Space weapons
FIGHTING IN SPACE“
*Modern counterspace weapons, are broadly based on three types of capability .
*The first is direct-ascent weapons that uses kinetic kill to physically destroy a target. This type of weapon was demonstrated by China in 2007, the US in 2008, India in 2019, and, most recently, by Russia in 2021
*The second type is a co-orbital weapon that could either use kinetic kill or ‘soft kill’ methods, such as directed energy, electronic or cyber warfare or physical interference, to disable or damage a satellite, without creating a space debris field that are associated with kinetic kill systems.
*The third type are ground-based counterspace systems such as uplink and downlink jamming, laser dazzling and cyberattack, including spoofing, to disable or deny access to satellites or to attack ground stations. (Davis 202
Why is distance less important in modern warfare?
The importance of geography, particularly geographical distance from potential opponents, is changing. While warfare in the past involved, first and foremost, soldiers on the front lines, warfare can now be waged over long distances, affecting both military and civilian targets. Technological progress in the cybersphere and in space undermines the relevance of geography and adds new critical security frontier
What is Cognitive and Neuro-war?
Cognitive warfare, where the human mind is the battlefield .
The aim of this new warfare is to bring about change in what people think, and how they think and act.
It shapes beliefs and group behaviour and has the potential to fracture and break up an entire society in such a way that its leaders and masses do not have the collective will to resist the offensive intentions of the aggressor.
The whole aim of war can be achieved without the application of violent force or terror. Surprisingly, the groups that are more susceptible to this type of warfare are politically connected and the averagely well-informed and educate
What are Cognitive and Neuro-war weapons?
*weapons for this kind of war will be big data, individual profiling, psychological toolkits, AI, and the media for communications,
*Power has generally been defined in military and economic terms. Geopolitical theories have been based on the heartland, rim land, sea power, etc. It is now time for a geostrategist to present a theory that is based on the acquisition of power through the control of minds. The new hierarchy of hegemony will be defined by information domination, which will be characterised by the exploitation of big data and AI to attain reflexive control over the enemy
What is the meaning of war in the Grey-Zone?
WAR IN THE GREY-ZONE
not physically violent — but it’s culturally, socially, and economically violent
This warfare is primarily executed through non-kinetic military action, such as social engineering, misinformation, and cyberattacks using emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and fully autonomous systems.
Violence, like Twitter, is a means of communication [and] future wars will be determined by ‘whose story wins
What are the direct and indirect impact of climate change on war?
What is the relationship between climate change and armed conflict?
