LEC10: Putin's War, A European Tragedy

Question 2

What does the Russo-Ukrainian conflict show and what marks the future of warfare?

Answer 2

The war shows
- The end of armored warfare
- The end of aviation
- The end of air mobile operations
- The end of amphibious operations
- The end of the Western way of war
- Deep attacks are innefective

The future of war is marked by:
- Mass & Attrition
- The dominancy of armor
- The dominancy of artillery
- The dominancy of land power
- The dominancy of drones
- The dominancy of defence.

*We don’t know much yet & context matters
*This war was shaped by many Russian failures
*Russia’s failure to win the air war ranks high among those
*Mutual air denial has been a key factor
This attritional war was not the planThere is much continuity
*The future does not just happen, and this war is probably not it
*We determine in no small measure what the future of war looks like
*Avoiding attritional warfare is possible
*Done it before
*Restoring & exploiting Western asymmetrical edge is key to ensure effective NATO deterrence

Question 3

Why shouldnt the russian invasion of ukraine come as a suprise?

Answer 3

This should not have come as a surprise
*2014 paradigm shift
*Era of great power competition
*Transparent geopolitical agenda of Putin
*RuskyMir
*Russian military modernization
Multiple hybrid activitiesProblematic Western deterrence
*Strategic inertia

Question 4

What is Putinism?

Answer 4

• Anti Western/Anti liberal
• West is enemy
• Narrative of Fabricated myhtological identity
• Return of buffer zone
• Restore prestige
• Power & fear as currency

Question 5

What is Putin’s ideology?

Answer 5

Dugin,“The Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia,” (1997)

NOT DENAZIFICATION
NOT FEAR OF NATO EXPANSION

1. Foment racial, religious and sectional divisions within the US
2. Promote the US isolationalist factions
3. In Great Britain: Exacerbate historic rifts with continental Europe and sepertist movements in Scotland, Wales and Ireland
4. Western Europe should be drawn in Russia;s direction by the lure of natural resources: oil, gas and food
5. Collapse nato from within
6. Aim: gradual dividing of europe into zones of german and russian influence, with russia very much in charge thanks to its eventual stranglehold over germany’s resouce needs
7. the empire of Eurasia will ultimately stretch from Dublin to Vladivostok

Question 6

What are the Strategic Errors of the west according to Osinga?

Answer 6

Bad assessment of mind set of authoritarian regimes

Excluding military support made Putin’s strategic considerations easier

Deep divisions among European states

Economics trumped security considerations
Putin deterred the West, or was it self-deterrence

Question 7

What was the initial ukraine strategy of russia?

Answer 7

*10 day war plan: focus = Kyiv
*Speed of maneuver
*Too fast for timely western response
*Secrecy, deception & surprise
*Decapitate pol & mil leadership
*Defeat Ukrmilitary

Question 8

What where Putin’s strategic errors?

Answer 8

Putin’s Strategic Errors
*Underestimated speed of Western coordinated multidimensional response
*Results in almost complete unprecedented sanctions regime & economic, cultural and military isolation
*Gambled on early Blitzkrieg style coup of Kiev
*Overestimated own military capabilities
*Underestimated Ukrainian military and societal resistance
*No preparations for long war
*Opted for 4-front war, no unified command
*Very low troop density

Question 9

What are the possibilites to end wars Osinga?

Answer 9

*21% had a decisive outcome in which one party ended up as the victor and the other as the loser (i.e., total victory/defeat).
*37% of the negotiated peace agreements between 1975 and 2018 broke down following a reignitionof the war between the same parties.
*76% of the peace agreements that broke down did so within two years,
*12% lasted for two to five years,
*12% lasted for more than five years but eventually broke down.

Wars that end in a tie as opposed to a decisive victory, where both sides share an acrimonious history, and where one side’s existence is threatened, are significantly more likely to be repeated

Question 10

What are concerns for the RU-UKR conflict in the future? Osinga

Answer 10

• Donbas: attrition & fixed ukrainian troops
• Air war
  Vulnerable infrastructure
  Contest for air defence capabilites
  Russian Air Force: Still massive potential
• Mobilization: Another 500.000 RU soldiers
• Offensive from Belarus
• Timing of counter-offensive
  Wait till western assets are in & troops trained
  Risk of losing window of opportunity
  Expedite & risk running out of steam
• Depth & scope of western support

Question 11

What is the Geo-political outlook on the UKR-RU conflict?

Answer 11

*Long term: complete shock to European security architecture
*Dramatic reset in Western security & defencepolicies
*New Cold War but much more unstable
*NATO & West new lease of life
*Urgent need to boost Western deterrence capabilities
*Strategic autonomy for West urgent for EU & NATO
*Forward defenceon the table
*Democracy versus authoritarianism
*War against the West
*System-war
*War for the future of Europe
*China is watching