Judgement, decisions and reasoning Flashcards
people are rational and make decisions that max out outcomes
expected utility theory
science assumes
determinism: events have causes
Discoverability: the causes can be found
science makes
systematic observations
science produces
public knowledge and tentative data based conclusions
Reasoning in which a conclusion follows from a consideration of evidence. This conclusion is stated as being probably true rather than definitely true
Inductive reasoning
Conjunction rule
the probability of a conjunction of two events cannot be higher than the probability of either single event
Linda the bank teller
The larger the number of individuals that are randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population.
Law of large numbers
(more boys born in large or small hospital?)
syllogism
A syllogism in which the premises and conclusion describe the relationship between two categories by using statements that begin with All, No, or Some.
Categorical syllogisms
Major premise+ minor premise=
conclusion
a syllogism can be valid and still be
incorrect
All strawberries are red
This apple is red
This apple is strawberry
is an example of
a syllogistic fallacy
the two premises are factual
but the conclusion doesn’t follow logic
to analyze a syllogism you can
outline the major and minor premises and conclusion and also replace the nouns
endency to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable or that it is invalid if the conclusion is not believable.
belief bias
Syllogism with two premises and a conclusion, like a categorical syllogism, but whose first premise is an “If … then” statement.
Conditional syllogisms
