judgement and reasoning pt 2

Question 1

what is inductive reasoning?

Answer 1

premises are based on observation

we generalize from these cases to conclusions with varying degree of certainty

the conclusions are probably true, not definitely true

Question 2

in inductive reasoning the conclusion can be more what?

Answer 2

general or specific

Question 3

strength of inductive argument depends on what?

Answer 3

representativeness of observations

number of observations

quality of observations

Question 4

what is inductive reasoning used for?

Answer 4

used to make scientific discoveries

and in everyday life to make predictions

Question 5

How do people perform inductive reasoning?

Answer 5

Heuristics

• rule of thumb
• typically provide the correct answer but can fail
• heuristics are generally fast and efficient

Question 6

What are availability heuristic?

Answer 6

events more easily remebered are judged as being more probable than those less easily remembered

Question 7

What is a representativeness heuristic?

Answer 7

the probability that A comes from B can be determined by how well A resembles properties of B

Question 8

What is the problem with representativeness heuristic?

Answer 8

violations of the conjunction rule

- prob of both events together cannot be higher than the prob of either event alone

Question 9

What is base rate negelect?

Answer 9

ignores the fact that there are vastly more lawyers than pro BBallers