heuristics and biases Flashcards
heuristic definition
simplifying strategy in making a decision
bias definition
partiality that prevents objective consideration of an issue or situation
representative heuristic
tendency to assess the likelihood of an event occurring based on similarity of that occurrence to our stereotypes of similar occurrences
problem when information is insufficient and better information exists on which to make an accurate judgement. can cause inaccurate estimations of probabilities
organizational (or other life) examples:
- the last person we hired from UT was good, so lets hire another
availability heuristic
tendency to base decisions on information readily available in memory
- vivid, recent events recalled more readily - given more weight
organizational (or other life) examples:
-performance appraisals
framing
how one looks at or “frames” a situation can have a significant impact on their strategy and how they engage with the other side
gain - risk averse
loss - risk seeking
bias: anchoring and adjustment
people make estimates by starting from an initial value that is adjusted. adjustments are typically insufficient. that is different starting points yield different estimates.
e.g. low-balling in negotiations
confirmation bias
“if a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side”
- look for evidence consistent with a proposition, but
-fail to look for disconfirming evidence
overconfidence bias
- people tend to overestimate their performance
-unskilled and unaware
-planning fallacy - people think of the things that will go right, but fail to consider all the things that can (and inevitably do) go wrong
preventing decision “failures”
training and awareness, applying lessons to other situations (this session) can help
dont react on first impulse - changing reference point can change decision!
i.e. if decision is risky, encourage considering same decision from perspective of losses. if decision is conservative, encourage considering same decision from perspective of gains
symptoms of groupthink
illusion of invulnerability
collective rationalization
unquestioned belief in morality
stereotyped views of out-groups
direct pressure on arguers
self censorship
illusions of unanimity
self-appointed mind-guards
avoiding groupthink
groups:
discuss the symptoms of groupthink and how to avoid them
assign a rotating devil’s advocate
individuals:
monitor personal behavior
check for self-censorship
group leaders:
create an anonymous feedback channel
set a tone of encouraging critical evaluations
