Deductive Reasoning Decision Making (chpt.12) Flashcards
Deductive Reasoning
specif premises that are true and you need to judge whether those premises allow you to draw a particular conclusion based on the principles of logic
Conditioning reasoning task or propositional task
describes the relationship between condition
Syllogism
consists of two statements that we must assume to be true, plus a conclusion
Propositional calculus
which is a system for categorizing the four kinds of reasoning used in analyzing propositions or statements
Antecedent
refers to the first proposition or statement the antecedent is contained in the “if part of the sentence
Consequent
refers to the proposition that comes second it is the consequence
Affirming the antecedent
means that you say that the “if” part of the sentence is true
Affirming the consequent
means that you say that the “then” part of the sentence is true
Denying the antecedent
means that you say that the “if” part of the sentence is false
Denying the consequent
means that you say that the “then” part of the sentence is false
Heuristic
a general strategy that usually works well rules of thumb that are usually successful and comparatively quick
Type 1 processing
is fast and automatic it requires little conscious attention we use type 1 processing during depth perception, recognition of facial expression, and automatic stereotyping
Type 2 processing
is relatively slow and controlled. It requires focused attention and it is typically more accurate
Belief-bias effect
occurs in reasoning when people make judgement based on prior beliefs and general knowledge rather than on the rules of logic
when real world beliefs impair the use of logic. We rely too heavily on our established beliefs
ex.if a teddy bear it is not a lion
teddy bears are not dangerous
therefore lions are dangerous
Confirmation Bias
they would rather try to conform or support a hypothesis than try to disprove. We prefer to confirm a current hypothesis rather than to reject it
people try to confirm a hypothesis and stop once they have a single confirming case tested by the watson selection task
Decision making
you must assess available information and choose among two or more alternatives
Psychological interest in decision making grew out of studies of decisions about gains and losses gamblers fallacy a chance outcome becomes more probable over time
Representative
A sample looks representative if it is similar in important characteristics to the population from which it was selected
Small sample fallacy
because they assume that a small sample will be representative of the population from which it is selected
Base rate
or how often the item occurs in the population
Base rate fallacy
paying too little attention to important information about base rate
Conjunction rule
the probability of the conjunction of two events cannot be larger than the probability of either of its constituent events
Conjuction fallacy Linda is single, outspoken, bright, and was concerned wit social justice and an antinuclear activist n college
Availability heuristic
when you estimate frequency or probability in terms of how easy it is to think of relevant examples of something
Using ease of thought to decide what facts are true
Recognition Heuristic
Typically operates when you must compare teh raltive frequency of two categories ; if you recognize one category, but not the other, you conclude that the recognized category has the higher frequency
Illusory Correlation
occurs when people believe that two variables are statistically related, even through there is no actual evidence for this relationship. We rely strongly on well known cell in a 2x2 data matrix and we fail to seek information about the other three cells
Social Cognition Approach
stereotypes can be traced to our normal cognitive processes.
Creativity
is a kind of problem solving finding solutions that are unusual and useful intelligence and creativity
Divergent production
how many words can you make with the letters “stramer” in a minute, only small correlations between different measures of divergent production
Remote associate test
small correlations with rated creativity
ex. “ice”- cream, skate, water
Influences on creativity
Intrinsic vs. Extrinsic motivation people are more creative if intrinsically motivated show less creativity if extrinsically motivated offered reward competing
Induction
is less sure but more like real life
Conditional reasoning
condition=situation condition X, what can we expect? this is a deductive method
if p then q
if it rains well get wet
Why do people think inference 3 and 4 are valid
difficulties in abstractions valid or not accuracy with these is better if diagrams are used
Watson Task Situated Cognition
The watson task is much easier to solve with socially relevant situations
if a person is drinking beer he or she must be at least 19 choices person drinking beer, person drinking coke person who is 16,person whois 22 73% correctly chose the beer drinker and the 16 year old this shows situated cognition
Anchoring and adjustment heurtistic
also known as the anchoring effect we begin with a first approximation which serves as an anchor then we make adjustments to that number based on additional information
Confidence Interval
is the range within which we expect a number to fall a certain percentage of the time
Default Hueristic
if there us a standard option which happens if people do nothing then people will choose it
Framing effect
demonstrates that the outcome of your decision can be influenced by two factors
1) the background context of the choice and
2) the way in which a question is worded or framed
Overconfidence
means that your confidence judgements are higher than they should be, based on your actual performance on to the task
Planning Fallacy
people typically underestimate the amount of time or money required to complete a project they also estimate that the task will be relatively easy to complete
My side bias
describes the overconfidence that your own view is correct in a confrontational situation
Hindsight
refers to our judgements about events that already happened in the past
Hindsight Bias
occurs when an event has happened and we say that the event had been inevitable we had actually known it all along
Once something occurs people often think they kew it all along the reason’t that contribute to overconfidence
Maximizers
are people who have a maximizing decision making style they tend to examine as man options as possible
Sacrificers
are people who have a satisfying decision making style they tend to settle for something that is satisfactory
Adjustment and Anchoring Heuristic
anchor something with a number between two numbers adjustment away from one number