D.4 - Future Resillience And Adaptation Flashcards
What are geophysical hazard trends
• Some fluctuations but there is an overall upwards trend in number of hazards per ear
• Increasing danger to humans caused by EQs and volcanic eruptions
• Especially as many EQ-prone regions are becoming more densely populated
• Activity levels seem to be rising at several supervolcanoes with eruptions of VEI 7-8
• E.g. several Icelandic volcanoes are showing signs of inflation, indicating pressure from magma upwellings beneath the surface building upwards
• The longer between hazard events, the larger the next will be
• This is as forces build up within a rock mass, building up stress through their resistance, eventually released as they violently snap into new positions
What are 2 reasons why frequency of hazards may change over time
- orbit fluctuation
- climate change
Why can orbit fluctuation change the frequency of hazards over time
Earth’s orbit around the sun can fluctuate Its rotation wobbles slightly as the location of its magnetic poles migrate
This may affect the strength of its magnetic attraction with the sun and moon
Could alter the circulation of liquid rock in the mantle and its pressure, increasing the frequency of EQs volcanic eruptions
Why can climate change affect the frequency of hazards of time
Isostatic readjustment occurs as land rises, due to the melting of ice caps that previously weighed it down from thousands of years ago
Could place stress on the earth’s crust
Similar effect with contemporary climate change
As ice caps shed ice mass, the release of weight allows crust to bend and rise upwards
Allows changes in currents within mantle to occur, which might make it easier for magma to rise to the surface
What are 4 indicators of imminent eruptions and earthquakes
- seismometers
- tilt meters
- laser beams
- animal behaviour
What is a seismometer
Measure earth movements and tremors
What’s a tiltmeter
Measures ground deformation and earth swelling
What’s a laser beams
Provide accurate data on tiny earth movements along fault lines due to underground pressures
How can animal behaviour suggest hazards
Animals can behave strangely before a hazard event occurs
e.g. snakes don’t go in holes, swans don’t go near water, pandas scream
What are 3 indicators of a volcanic eruption
- ash/cinder deposit is on volcano slopes
- technology
- GPS monitoring
How does ash/cinder deposit on volcanic slopes suggest imminent eruptions
Can indicate frequency of eruptions for an individual volcano and predict the likelihood of an imminent eruption
Composite cone volcanoes are harder to predict than cinder cones, due to the complexity of their eruptions
how can technology suggest a eruption
An array of sensitive instruments on volcanoes can monitor its activity after initial signs of activity, like earth tremors and inflation
With precise data, the timing and magnitude of imminent eruptions can be accurately predicted
How can gps monitoring suggest a eruption
Looking at data from receivers placed around a volcano over a period of time can suggest whether it has moved or changed
What are 4 indicators of a earthquake
- changes in ground water
- increasing electricity concudctivity of rocks
- release of random gas from ground into atmosphere
- general
How does changes in ground water suggest a earthquake
Groundwater can flow into newly opened up underground cracks
How does increasing electrical conductivity of rocks suggest a earthquake
Can suggest increasing moisture content of the rocks
How does release of random gad from ground into atmosphere suggest a earthquake
Escapes from faults as rocks under pressure begin to crack
How can vernal things suggest a earthquake
Usually include combination of indicators including ground inflation, land tilting, or clusters of tremors
what is a the only indicator of mass movement
Weather forecast
Can help predict landslides
e.g. increased rainfall, monsoons, looking at ground saturation
What are 6 ways to adapt to hazard
- electronic warning systems
- technology - shakealertIA
- insurance policy
- preparing homes to withstand events
- land use zoning
- hazard maps
Why can electronic warning system help adaptation to hazards
Motion detectors can give residents prior warning before an EQ hits
Allows evacuation of people from significant danger points
e.g. in Japan, signals are automatically sent to braking systems on bullet trains to slow them down whenever shaking starts
Why can technology help adaption to hazard
Uses network of seismic sensors to detect EQs and dispatch warnings to smartphones
Forewarns of impending EQs to allow people to act in a safe way to protect themselves
Estimates both location and magnitude
However, not completely accurate, and there is a notification threshold - only informs of EQs over a certain magnitude, not all possible shaking
Why can insurance policies help adaption to hazards
Cover for an amount of risk or liability
Helps consumers recover financially from unexpected events
Increases resilience by improving financial security and providing compensation
Lower cost in low-risk areas
Can cover living expenses elsewhere while homes are repaired
Can have psychological benefits by providing peace of mind and avoiding anxiety
However, can be costly in high-risk areas
Not everyone can afford
Not offered in all areas
Can be denied if the risk is too great
Still costs a high deductible which might outweigh the potential costs of damages
Why can preparing homes to withstand hazard event help adaption to hazards
Maintaining emergency food/battery supplies
Having electrical generators on hand
How can land use zoning help adaption top hazards
Can attempt to separate people from known hazards
Imposes restrictions in high-risk locations
Can prohibit residences schools hospitals on vulnerable land
Can restrict construction in such areas, requiring structural strengthening, firefighting services, and certain access/exit designs
How can using hazard maps help adaption to hazards
Considers proximity to plate boundaries/faults, seismic history, geology (e.g. bedrock is more stable than alluvial deposits), gradient, and possible secondary hazards (e.g. tsunamis near coast, landslides near hills)
Once possible hazards are known, adjustments can be made:
Prohibiting building where too dangerous
Create zones where only low value uses are permitted, like farming
Protect, evacuate, or rebuild vulnerable areas to new building standards
Allows govt’s to prepare for hazards and enforce zoning/planning regulations
However, can cause loss of value of certain properties and prevent them from getting insurance
Signs and instructions put up in warning zones can also cause loss in aesthetic value and put off tourists
What are 7 pre vent management strategies for mass movement
- artificial structures
- vegetation
- diverting streams
- installing pipes
- excavations
- landslide hazard maps
- subsidence management
How is installing artificial structures a stratagie for facing mass movement
Can be built to prevent major landslides
Rocks can be bolted together to make rockfalls less likely
Specially designed poles can be built into slopes to secure them
How can cegitiation prevent mass movement
Can be planted to bind the soil
How can diverting streams prevent mass movement
Surface streams flowing across a slope lubricate and erode the surface
Can be diverted to flow across more stable lands
How can installing pipes prevent mass movement
Can drain saturated soil and ease pressure from groundwater
How can excavations prevent mass movement
Can change the shape of a slope, making it less steep and less vulnerable to sliding
How can landslide hazard maps prevent landslides
Identify areas prone to slope failures by examining historical record of the area e.g. considering slope stability, the scale and speed of a potential slide, potential economic losses, the affected population, and property damage
Typically categorise slopes according to hazard risk
Permanent avoidance - settlement is forbidden
Temporary avoidance - only seasonal use
Qualified use - land-use is restricted to low value activities, may need special building standards
Unrestricted use - stable, no risk of instability
How can subsidence management prevent mass movement
Regulating and restricting mining
Ensuring underground mines are properly constructed, with reinforced structures
Tracking flow of underground streams and seepage
Constructing flexible buildings to withstand ground movements
What are 3 pre event management strategies for earthquakes
- building on suitable ground
- using the right building material
- constructing solid buildings
How does building on suitable grounds prevent the effects from earthquakes
e.g. building on hard rock foundations
Best to avoid building on sand and silt as they become jelly-like and cause buildings to sink when the ground is shaken
How some using the right building materials prevent effects from earthquakes
Rigid materials will not disintegrate under pressure (e.g. reinforced concrete, steel)
Flexible materials will bend but not break during an EQ (e.g. timber)
e.g. bricks are less capable of withstanding shocks, so if used, they need additional support with vertical beams
How does constructing solid buildings prevent effects felt from earthquakes
Should have strong foundations, load-bearing walls, strongly attached roofs, and reinforced walls (e.g. steel rods in concrete walls, wise mesh cemented into brick walls)
how have japan built buildings to prevent effects from earthquakes
Build skvscrapers to earn more revenue from limited space
Japanese engineers ensure these tall buildings are resistant to damage from EQs
Widened bases - encourages stability
Foundations of fluid/rubber/springs - enables movement during EQs without being brittle
Counter-weights - employed at top of buildings to offset shocks from EQs
What are 4 pre event management strategies for tsunamis
- tsunami walls
- buoy networks
- warning stations
- high ground eviction areas
How does tsunami walls prevent the effects of a tsunami
Reflect wave energy back to sea, or absorb it However, block natural view of oceans and block view of any potential tsunamis
How does buoy network help prevent the effects of a tsunami
Establishing network of buoys in ocean can track movement of tsunamis to give advance warning of tsunamis approaching
How does warning stations help prevent the effects from a tsunami
Can be set up on land with sirens to notify residents of the need to evacuate
How does high ground evacuation areas help prevent the effects Ron a tsunami
People can assemble there safely, with clearly marked access routes
What are 4 pre event management strategies for a volcanic eruption
- hazard maps and disaster plans
- construction
- diverting lava flow
- warning visitors
How can hazard maps and disaster plans help reduce the effects of a volcano
Can be developed and distributed to residents in threatened areas
Include instructions about potential hazards and actions to take in the event of eruption
How can construction help reduce the effect of a volcano
Buildings should have strong, steep roofs to withstand the weight of volcanic ash and minimise the quantities that accumulate
How can diverting lava flow reduce the effects of a volcano
Walls and troughs can be built along the anticipated paths of lava flows to divert them away from property
However, difficult to implement effectively as it is difficult to predict lava flows accurately
Some areas of active volcanic activity
How can warning visitors reduce the effects of a volcano
Some areas of active volcanic activity become tourist attractions
Visitors can be warned of dangers and encouraged to remain in areas considered to be safe
What is hazard response
• Reponses to hazards are often based on partial and selective knowledge and understandings
• Responses to hazards fall into three phases
What is pre hazard response
• Identifying and analysing the potential of hazards
• Providing warning of the developing threat
• Ascertaining the vulnerability of the community
• Prevention and mitigation involve preventing or minimising the impact of threats
o E.g. land-use zoning
• Preparation includes alerting and raising awareness of the threat, allocating responsibilities, and stockpiling essential food/equipment
What are types of hazard response
• Occurs during or immediately after a hazard event (Relief —> Rehabilitation stage)
• Ranges from panic and psychological paralysis to implementation of coordinated emergency measures
• Initial response may include:
o Migration or evacuation
• Disease outbreaks and medical problems
• Addressing the cause and impact of the hazard
• Assisting affected people
• Minimising the impact of repeated events
• Responses can fall into two categories
• Biomedical responses include death and injuries
• Psychosocial responses include the ways people react to the hazard event, such as:
o Worry and anxiety
Grieving or blaming
• Losing community cohesion
• Rushing in to offer aid and assistance to the needy
• Psychosocial management strategies can be performed by gov’t and aid agencies, like:
- Providing emergency food supplies
- Erecting temporary shelter/accommodation
- Locating survivors
- Working to re-establish basic services
How can drone be used for hazard response
• Can locate survivors and assess damage
• Can find survivors by detecting wi-fi signals from smartphones or using sound/motion detectors
• Creates a 3D map to find entry points and secure lifelines
• Primary goal is to deliver food/water/supplies
• Can provide aerial views to show the extent of damage
• Shows which areas need the most help, blocked roads, and collapsed buildings
• Saves time and allows for accuracy
What is post hazard response
• Comprises the medium or long-term actions taken to repair major damage and minimise suffering from possible repeat events (Rehabilitation —> Reconstruction stage)
• Recovery includes cleaning up and repairing damage, ongoing medical treatment, counselling victims, financial and legal support, revision of hazard analyses, and evaluation of prevention and mitigation measures
• Responses can still be classified as biomedical and psychosocial when considering the longer-term aftermath
• Biomedical responses - deaths and injuries may continue after the initial hazard event, as poor hygiene allows disease to spread, and crude medical facilities struggle to cope with the scale of injuries sustained
• Psychosocial management strategies are designed to restore or improve QoL, and stabilise the environment to mitigate the impact of a similar future hazard event, including:
• Building permanent structures
• Restoring infrastructure facilities like piped water and reliable electricity
• Stabilising unstable slopes that were disrupted
What are the 3 stages of the post event life cycle
- Relief - Starts immediately
Efforts made to provide food, water, clothing, shelter, and medical care to the affected Stop the continued loss/disruption directly related to event
e.g. collapse of damaged buildings, spread of fire and disease - Rehabilitation - Requires accurate assessment of needs and carefully coordinated resource planning
Aims to restore physical and community structures to at least a temporary return to normality
e.g. replacing mass shelter with temporary housing, transferring injured from field hospitals to regular ones, making - Reconstruction - Permanent changes made to restore QoL and economic stability
Depends on the need to reduce vulnerability, the desire to increase self-reliance, and the overriding goal of restoring normality ASAP
Speed and efficiency of recovery can vary according to type/magnitude of hazard event and availability of contingency planning for disasters
Can be helped by int’| relief agencies like Oxfam and Red Cross
How is it difficult to reconstruct Haiti
Following the earthquake (see page 188), plans were discussed for the rescue, rehabilitation and reconstruction of Haiti. Reconstructing Haiti is a challenge to the international community, which has failed over decades to lift the island state out of poverty, corruption and violence. Between 2000 and 2010, more than $4 billion has been spent to rebuild communities and infrastructure devastated by hurricanes, floods and landslides, but mismanagement, lack of coordination and attempts by global institutions to use Haiti as an economic tested are believed to have frustrated all efforts. A foreign debt of $1.5 billion has weighed down the economy.
What was stage one of Haiti reconstruction
Stage 1: Rescue, 1-10 weeks
The first step was emergency teams working with government and communities to rescue trapped people, clear rubble, and restore water and sanitation to prevent disease. Haiti has a number of self-help groups, NGOs, unions, faith groups, and youth brigades that helped mobilize the emergency effort.
What was stage 2 of the reconstruction of Haiti
Stage 2: Assessment, 6-10 weeks
The UN, government donors, the World Bank and charities needed to know what capability remained. Ports, hospitals, houses, schools and roads were in a dreadful state, and there was little piped water or electricity beyond the business area in the capital. Pumps and pipes had been severely damaged, government records had been lost, and teachers, doctors, engineers and professionals had been injured or killed.
The extent of devastation needed to be fully understood in order for recovery to begin. There needed to be a pause, since planning was needed rather than reaction.
Attention was on the capital, Port-au-Prince, but cities like Carrefour and Jamel were also damaged, as well as hundreds of rural communities.
What is stage 3 of the reconstruction of Haiti
Stage 3: Coordination, 1-10 weeks
The lesson of the 2004 tsunami and other disasters was that there was a real risk of wasting aid in the race to help. Coordination was needed at national and NGO level. The danger was that institutions could rush in, impose their own ideas, and duplicate efforts. The key, even at this emergency stage, was to think long term.
Expectations also needed to be managed: people living in slums sometimes expect to get palaces after a hazard event has destroyed their home.
When they do not, this can lead to problems.
What is stage 4 of the reconstruction of Haiti
Stage 4: Rehabilitation, 1-52 weeks
If, as the Red Cross suggested, 3 million people needed to be rehoused, the infrastructure of the country had to be rebuilt. Haiti’s record of handling money is poor, and it is one of the world’s most aid-dependent states. Hampering its recovery have been deep corruption, a poor civil service, and mistrust between the donor community and the government. Aid agencies have increasingly bypassed government, adding to administrative chaos.
What is stage 5 of the reconstruction of Haiti
Stage 5: Reconstruction, 1-40 years
Many countries and aid groups already have major reconstruction programmes in Haiti.
Realistically, it will take decades to rebuild the country. It is likely that the international community will now follow the example of Aceh, where a government agency was set up exclusively to manage the reconstruction; it set up a multi-donor fund to coordinate aid efforts.
Responses are affected by a number of factors.
These include:
• the magnitude of the hazard - the greater the event, the greater the reaction
• the predictability of the event - hurricanes are annual events, whereas earthquakes are more random in time
• the level of wealth - how much the individual household, national government and international organizations can raise
• the perceived level of risk - whether a volcano is likely to erupt or not, and its level on the VEI (volcanic explosivity index)
• the level of information provided in the media - probability of event, size of event, measures to be taken
• the degree of hazard event preparation - building codes, land-use zoning, drills
• personal factors - awareness of alternatives, ability to afford such alternatives, and so on.
