Class 3: Heuristics and biases Flashcards
Extraordinary Claims: Uncut conversation with Tom Gilovich and Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.
1
Q
Which of the following is an example of the confirmation bias? a) Reading articles from both sides of a political debate to gain a balanced perspective b) Only reading articles that support your political views and ignoring articles that contradict them c) Reading articles that are neutral on a political issue and ignoring articles that take a stance d) Only reading articles that are easy to find and ignoring articles that are difficult to find
A
b) Only reading articles that support your political views and ignoring articles that contradict them
2
Q
Why does hindsight and the curse of knowledge make it difficult for teachers to explain concepts?
A
It is difficult to put themselves into student’s shoes, as if they have no knowledge of the concept or know the outcome. The teacher must attempt change their perspective, and predict of the likelihood of themselves understanding the concept without the knowledge they currently have.
3
Q
True or False: people tend to overestimate the validity of information when it is considered highly representative or consistent.
A
TRUE
4
Q
Describe what an illusory correlation is and provide one example of a scenario where this bias may occur.
A
It is a bias in the judgment of the frequency with which two events co-occur. It involves perceiving an associative bond between two variables, when no such bond exists. E.g. A football fan always wears a specific jersey when watching his favorite team’s games. On a few occasions when he forgot to wear the jersey, his team lost. So, he believes him wearing the jersey leads to the team winning. This is an illusory correlation because his choice of clothing does not have any effect on the team’s performance.
5
Q
Describe three heuristics that are used in making judgements under uncertainty
A
(I) Representativeness: is used when people are trying to evaluate the probability to which A resembles B. (II) Availability: is used when people try to assess the frequency of a class or a probability of an event by the ease to which these occurrences can be brought to mind. (III) Adjustment and Anchoring: is used when people try to make estimates, in which different starting points would lead to different estimates, with people tending to bias towards initial values.
6
Q
What are the concerns with heuristics described in Tversky & Kahneman (1974) article?
A
This could point to systematic and predictable errors.
7
Q
What is the importance of looking for evidence against a belief?
A
It is important to look for evidence against a belief in order to get a more balanced and accurate understanding of the situation.
8
Q
How is the hindsight bias related/similar to the curse of knowledge?
A
in both instances once you have acquired key information its hard to take that knowledge away and then perceive the world as it was previously (whether it be falsely claiming to predict an outcome or no longer being able to explain a concept at a novice foundation).
9
Q
What is confirmation bias?
A
If we want something to be true, we seek out evidence that is consistent with it and not against it
10
Q
Choose the right option to fill in the blank : When someone evaluates the overall likeliness to - receive sufficient funding for a project - and have enough time to finish it - and gather sufficient knowledge about how to get it done as high because each of these events are very likely to happen individually, this person is ________ [underestimating/ overestimating] the probability of __________ [conjunctive/ disjunctive] events
A
Overestimating ; conjunctive
11
Q
True or False: We tend to look for information in favour of an idea rather than against it, even if we don’t have a strong stake in an argument.
A
TRUE
12
Q
True or False: People are generally sensitive to prior probability outcomes (base-rates) when using the representativeness heuristic.
A
FALSE
13
Q
The gambler’s fallacy is the belief that…
A
the outcomes of an independent/random event are influenced by previous outcomes, suggesting that if an event has not happen for a while, it is bound/due to occur soon.
14
Q
What is the confirmation bias mentioned in the article? a) The tendency to seek out information that supports our existing beliefs and ignore information that contradicts them b) The tendency to seek out information that contradicts our existing beliefs and ignore information that supports them c) The tendency to seek out information that is neutral and ignore both supportive and contradictory information d) The tendency to seek out information only when it is readily available and easy to find
A
a) The tendency to seek out information that supports our existing beliefs and ignore information that contradicts them
15
Q
How does the belief in the “law of small numbers” impact scientists’ ability to conduct and draw conclusions from research?
A
Belief in the “law of small numbers” results in researchers selecting inadequate sample sizes and overinterpreting their findings.
16
Q
True or False: Misconceptions of chance are limited to naive individuals. People who have been trained on statistics would not be affected by such bias.
A
False. In a study, a group of experienced psychology researchers (presumably familiar with the concept of misconception of chance) were also affected by the “Law of small numbers”.
17
Q
What is the key difference between the availability heuristic (AH) and the representativeness heuristic (RH)?
A
AH = making judgements/decisions based on the availability & ease of accessing information. E.g., fear of flying after a plane crash. RH = making judgements/decisions based on how well an event, object or person matches a stereotype or category. E.g., assuming someone wearing glasses is intelligent.
18
Q
TRUE/FALSE: Studies of choice among gamblers and of judgments of probability indicate that people tend to overestimate the probability of disjunctive events.
A
FALSE, they tend to underestimate the probability of disjunctive events, which is a result of anchoring. The probability of conjunctive events tend to be overestimated, not disjunctive.
19
Q
What is the False Consensus Effect?
A
It is part of the phenomenon that we see more consensus for our beliefs than is the actual case. This can be due to our biases or different judgement & definitions of them.
20
Q
Predictions made based off of representativeness, such as predicting the future stock worth of a company based of the companies description is called?
A
Insensitivity to predictability.
21
Q
What are the three heuristics mentioned in the Tversky & Kahneman paper?
A
representativeness, availability, and adjustment from an anchor
22
Q
True or False? Sometimes heuristics lead to errors in judgment.
A
True. Explanation: Heuristics are mental shortcuts that people use to make decisions and judgments quickly and efficiently. They can be very useful in many situations, but they can also lead to biases and errors in judgment. For example, the representativeness heuristic, which involves judging the probability of an event based on how similar it is to other events, can lead to errors if the person does not take into account the base rate of the event or other relevant factors. Therefore, it’s important to be aware of these biases and to use critical thinking and analysis when making decisions.
23
Q
In relation to the H-T-H-T-T-H coin toss, what is a consequence of the belief in local representativeness?
A
The Gambler’s Fallacy
24
Q
When is the heuristic ‘availability of instances or scenarios’ employed?
A
Availability of instances or scenarios is often employed when individuals are asked to evaluate the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development.
25
In Tom Gilovich's conversation about extraordinary claims, what does he argue about the importance of evidence when evaluating such claims?
In Tom Gilovich's conversation about extraordinary claims, he argues that when evaluating extraordinary claims, it's important to have sufficient and reliable evidence to support them. He explains that people often have a tendency to accept extraordinary claims based on anecdotal evidence or personal experiences, rather than demanding scientific evidence and rigorous testing. Gilovich suggests that we should be more skeptical and critical of extraordinary claims and demand stronger evidence before accepting them as true.
26
TRUE OR FALSE: Based on the representativeness heuristic, when A is highly representative of B, the probability that A originates from B will be judged to be low.
FALSE - it will be judged to be high
27
True or False: Tom Gilovich suggests that we develop certain unfounded beliefs (for example, believing that natural disasters occur in sets of threes) due to the basic human instinct to find patterns in the world around us.
TRUE
28
Are participants more/less likely to consider the prior probability of a population when determining a subject's job based on an unrelated personality description, and also what type of heuristics decision-making is potentially involved?
Less and Representativeness
29
How can a better understanding of heuristics and biases help us make more informed and effective decisions in uncertain situations?
A better understanding of heuristics and biases can help people make more informed and effective decisions in uncertain situations by providing them with tools to recognize and counteract their biases. For example, people can use deliberate strategies to avoid relying on heuristics when making important decisions.
30
What is the availability heuristic, and how does it impact our decision-making?
The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut where people make judgments based on how easily they can bring examples to mind. This can impact decision-making because people may overestimate the likelihood of events or scenarios that they have seen or heard about recently, while underestimating the likelihood of less salient events.
31
True or false? Kahnemann and Gilovich disagree about the fact that psychologists, being highly knowledgeable about biases and the scientific literature about it, are not as likely to be subject to biases in their practice.
FALSE : both recognize that despite advanced knowledge about biases, psychologists and scientists are still exposed to formulate some biased conclusions.
32
When is the adjusting and anchoring heuristic used?
This is usually used for decisions where a numerical decision is required based on the presence of a numerical value.
33
According to Tversky and Kahneman's 1974 study ________ bias is a cognitive bias that occurs when people believe they are more likely to experience positive events and less likely to experience negative events compared to others.
Optimism.
34
David, a mature-age student, is convinced that the upcoming election will be a landslide in favour of the One Nation party, given the stress that his extended friends and family have experienced over the COVID-19 lockdowns and growing issues with immigration and refugees in a tight Australian job market. David is then shocked when the election result is a landslide in favour of the Greens, who directly oppose many of the One Nation policies. Which bias may David have succumbed to in this situation?
False consensus effect. David believes that most other Australians believe what he believes and will subsequently vote for One Nation as a result. This false belief is then challenged by the election’s actual outcome, where most individuals had voted for the Greens instead.
35
How can the representativeness heuristic lead to errors in decision-making?
This heuristic can influence judgement by leading people to ignore base rate information and focus on the similarity of the event to the prototype. The limitations of this heuristic are that it can lead to neglecting important information and overemphasising surface similarity, which can lead to errors in decision-making. m
36
True/False The representativeness heuristic leads to accurate judgments of probability.
False. The representativeness heuristic, in which probabilities are evaluated by the degree to which an object or event resembles a stereotype, often leads to errors in judgment because it does not take into account prior probabilities or other relevant factors.
37
True or false, for the concept of confirmation bias, normally, if a person believes in something, he will look for evidence to prove it, and at the same time, he will also look for evidence against it.
FALSE
38
What is the difference between the conformation bias and the hindsight bias?
Confirmation bias is based on the belief-alignment process (selected information that agrees with what we already think) while the hindsight bias is based on the belief-updating process (updated past thoughts because of new information).
39
Dan loves to to run and enjoys a good, tough competition. He has a muscular build, and loves using his small whiteboard to draw out game plays. From a list of sports (Rugby, Chess, Horse riding, or swimming), what sport is most likely to be associated with Dan? and what heuristic is commonly used to make this judgement?
'- Rugby - Representative heuristic - Dan is a guy, likes to run, enjoys competition, is muscular, and likes making game plays. However, none of those rule out that he can be a chess player. But using the representative heuristic, we are likely to go with rugby player as it is most similar to what we stereotype as representative of a rugby player.
40
Explain how judgments are all based on data of limited validity, which are processed according to heuristic rules.
The subjective assessment of probability resembles the subjective assessment of physical quantities such as distance or size.
41
Why would someone be more scared of sharks, than of driving in their car?
The availability heuristic! Shark attacks tend to receive greater emphasis in the media & elicit stronger emotional responses, whereas driving a car is a routine task that typically receives less attention in the media when accidents occur. Sharks are scarier, even though driving is actually more dangerous.
42
What is the Rational Reflective System? A) The mental process by which we identify patterns in the environment. B) The mental process by which we make decisions based on intuitive or "gut" feelings. C) The mental process by which we register associations that happen to go together in time or space as connected. D) The mental process by which we evaluate and correct our intuitive or automatic responses.
Answer: D
43
What is the Gambler's Fallacy?
The idea that previous random events should predict future events, i.e.," roulette wheel spun black 5 times, it has to be red next"
44
Identify and describe the two systems involved in thinking according to Tom Gilovich?
Intuitive System makes a bunch of associations about things that go together in space and time, causing us to think of those things as connected. Whereas the Rational reflective system allows you to inspect the information and question if it is true and what inferences can be drawn from it.
45
How does bias affect personality assessments?
There can be a tendency to answer questions in a socially or culturally desirable way
46
(T or F) Only laymen have a reliance on heuristics. Expert researchers are not prone to the same biases due to their years of experience, and can stop themselves from using any mental shortcuts.
F
47
What predictions is the adjustment and anchoring heuristic present in?
Numerical predictions where there is a relevant initial value present.
48
Fill in the blank. The tendency to think that other people believe what we believe is called the ‘ ‘ Consenus Effect. a) Confirmation b) Bias c) False d) True
c
49
Which phenomenon describes the tendency for people to rely too heavily on the first piece of information they receive when they are making a decisions.
Anchoring
50
Is the following statement true or false? Heuristics are often useful because they allow people to make quick decisions in complex situations. Heuristics can also lead to errors or biases in judgment, particularly in situations where they do not apply or when they are misapplied.
True
51
What is the availability heuristic?
The tendency to judge the probability of an event by how easily examples of the event come to mind.
52
What is the sunk cost fallacy?
The tendency to continue investing in a project or decision because of the resources already invested, even if those resources are now lost or unrecoverable.
53
Explain Base Rate Frequencies and in which heuristic are they often misunderstood/misrepresented?
Misrepresented in the Representativeness Heuristic. Base rate frequency refers to how often an event occurs in the general population, which has a higher impact on probability than the representativeness of such an event.
54
Define erroneous beliefs
An unfounded belief people create that often has little grounding or supporting evidence (if I swap from my slow line to a fast line at the grocery store, that line will begin to slow down making my decision pointless)
55
What is an example of a heuristic rule that people use to estimate distance?
An example of a heuristic rule that people use to estimate distance is the clarity of an object. The more sharply an object is seen, the closer it appears to be.
56
True or False: An individual will purposely seek out evidence to support their own beliefs, but if they have never considered a particular idea before and have no vested interest in it, they will seek out both evidence for and against the idea to compare if the new idea is true given the information.
False, an individual similar to their own beliefs will continue to only seek out evidence to support this new idea that they have been presented even if they have no vested interest rather than looking for evidence to disprove the new idea to avoid going against a belief and potentially experiencing cognitive dissonance.
57
What issues in judgment occur due to the adjustment and anchoring heuristic?
1. Insufficient adjustment 2. Biases from anchoring, when evaluating conjunctive and distinctive occurrences, such as individuals overestimating the probability of conjunctive events, and underestimating how often disjunctive events occurred. 3. Anchoring judgment of subjective probability distributions beyond justified certainty, where one's best estimate can not be an anchor. 3.
58
What is insensitivity to sample size?
A cognitive bias that happens where we disregard sample size when forming judgement and decision making in science. This occurs when the sample size isn't in comparison to population being sampled.
59
If someone is attacked by a police officer and then attributives all police officers as violent is what form of bias?
Illusory correlation
60
True or False: Anchoring can be used in all kinds of situations.
False. The anchoring effect refers to when people evaluate a certain quantity, they are influenced by the information or figures obtained before, resulting in deviation.
61
Provide an example of an erroneous belief
'- a common belief that things happen in 3s (e.g. natural disasters)
62
True/False
FALSE
63
What is meant by "The subjective assessment of probability resembles the subjective assessment of physical quantities such as distance or size." A. Probability is the exact same as measures like distance or size B. The way people estimate the likelihood of something happening (probability) is similar to how we estimate things like how far or big something is. C. Determining how big or how far something is, helps us when measuring the probability of something happening
B
64
T/F: If an individual selects from both X distribution and Y distribution (both are of same distribution), and the X score was k units away from the mean and it was not an extreme score, the Y score could be less than k units.
True. Regression towards the mean asserts that the second score would be random. The score could be less since the first score was not an extreme score, and thus there is a chance that the second score be less than k units.
65
What is the availability heuristic?
The availability heuristic is the tendency to judge the likelihood of an event based on how easily examples come to mind.
66
When people believe they have more control over situations than they actually do, leading to overconfidence in their judgments and decisions, what is this called
Illusionary thinking
67
Question: What is confirmation bias?
If we want to believe something, we will go and seek out evidence for it and we won't eek out evidence against it
68
False consensus effect / consensus bias is
To see our own behaviour and jugdement as common and appropriet to existing circumstances.
69
The belief that pilots who receive verbal punishment increases flight landing success/learning is due to a failure to recognise and understand A gamblers fallacy, B regression to the mean, C post hoc ergo proper hoc, D illusions of validity
B regression to the mean
70
What is confirmation bias?
→ Confirmation bias is a cognitive process where individuals tend to seek out evidence that confirms their pre-existing beliefs, while ignoring or minimising evidence that is contradictory. New, ambiguous evidence is also often interpreted to align with one's beliefs due to the process of confirmation bias.
71
What does the term "Curse of Knowledge" refer to?
The difficulty after learning something to see the world as it was before you learnt it
72
Is chance a self-correcting process?
No, despite being commonly viewed as a self-correcting process, the deviations are merely diluted as the process continues and hence appears as if it is self-correcting.
73
Define the belief of "law of numbers" ?
According to "law of numbers" even smaller samples are highly representative of the populations from which they are drawn.
74
Given the scenario below, which heuristic is being employed? Imagine that you are planning a trip to a foreign country and are trying to decide whether to purchase travel insurance. As you think about whether it's worth the expense, you begin to recall stories you've heard from friends and family about their experiences traveling abroad. Some have had their luggage lost or stolen, others have become ill and needed medical attention, and a few have even been in accidents. As you consider these stories, you start to feel increasingly worried about the risks of traveling without insurance.
Availability Heuristic The availability heuristic causes you to rely on the most readily available information (in this case, the stories you've heard) to make judgments and decisions, rather than seeking out more comprehensive and accurate information about the risks of traveling. In this scenario, the availability heuristic may lead you to make the decision to purchase travel insurance based on a potentially exaggerated sense of risk, even if the actual risk of negative events happening is relatively low.
75
According to Tom Gilovich, ____ is the one of the most powerful cognitive mechanisms operating when we have our own beliefs or opinions.
Confirmation Bias
76
In Representativeness,why does assess the degree to which one person is representative of,or similar to the stereotype of a job will make serious errors.
Similarity or called representativeness, is not influenced by several factors that should affect judgments of probability.By another words,there are more factors than these two for people to judge the degree of representativeness but they have been ignored.
77
Why are psychics so successful in society?
Psychics predict many occurrences, which are often times very broad and up for interpretation by the subject. Even if, by chance, a prediction is confirmed, it often consumes the attention, and all of the predictions that did not come true are ignored. Confirmation bias is also in play here, where if the subject wants a prediction to be true, they will search for evidence that confirms it. This also happens in reverse, where if a prediction is not inline with their desires/beliefs, they will look for evidence to falsify it. It only takes a small amount of evidence for a person to confirm or deny a prediction in their head.
78
True or False: Researchers (especially psychologists) are not subject to bias.
False. Researchers might have more awareness about biases, but certainly also have „blind spots“.
79
Which of the following is not an example of regression to the mean? a) Nick goes to the doctor to have his blood pressure measured and it is high. The next week, he goes to the doctor to have his blood pressured measured, and it is now within normal range. b) Nick goes to the doctor to have his blood pressure measured and it is high. The doctor writes him a prescription for medication to reduce his blood pressure. Nick does not get the chance to fill his prescription the next week, and yet when he returns to the doctor, his measurements show is blood pressure is now within normal range. c) Nick has been feeling faint and his blood pressure is low. His doctor tells him to wear a blood pressure cuff for 24 hours to monitor his blood pressure over the course of the day. The results show that his average blood pressure over the 24 hours is much lower than is healthy. d) Nick is a good student, and got 5/5 for his first Judgment and Decision-Making quiz. The next week he also studies hard for the quiz, but only gets a 3 out of 5.
c
80
What is the False Consensus Effect?
The tendency to think other people have the same beliefs and opinions that we have.
81
If your employees produce terrible work one day, you yell at them, and then the next day they do better. Is it likely that you're just excellent at motivating people?
No, regression to the mean suggests that after a deviation from the norm one day (i.e., terrible work) their performance is likely to be less extreme the second day due to statistical probability, and not because you yelled at them. You jerk.
82
TRUE OR FALSE? The false concensus effect is when we search for, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.
False. This is confirmation bias.
83
What is the representative heuristic?
It is when we estimate the probability of event A occurring based on its similarity to event B. In other words, it is when we use well know situations or stereotypes to make predictions about something that can be compared to the situation/stereotype.
84
What is the representativeness heuristic?
The representativeness heuristic is a cognitive bias that occurs when people judge the likelihood of an event based on how well it matches a particular prototype or stereotype.
85
Why are people often more compelled by (potentially false) examples of cause and effect, rather than solid data/evidence?
Humans are storytellers, and will often prefer receiving information through means of a relatable story, compared to data/evidence. To make data/evidence more compelling, it can be embedded into stories that people relate to.
86
Why do humans believe in superstitions with little to no evidence to support the idea?
Human brains are designed to find patterns and trends in the world, even when the occurrence is completely random, for example; mnm's randomly poured in a bowl, the human brain will identify groups of colours
87
The ______ ______ is the erroneous belief that past independent events influence the likelihood of future events. It assumes that the probability of a specific outcome is affected by the outcome of previous events, despite the fact that each event is independent of the other.
Gambler’s fallacy
88
How does insensitivity to the prior probability of outcomes affect our decision-making ability?
If we are insensitive to the prior probability of outcomes, we ignore factors that don't affect repressiveness but significantly affect the probability of an outcome.
89
What is Tom Gilovich's reasoning behind the question "Why do we believe things in the absence of data or evidence to the contrary?"
Part of the job of the brain is to identify patterns, as it creates a feeling of security in knowing what to expect in order to avoid feelings of confusion or "the unknown." He states, "It's hard to get that job accomplished perfectly, so people look out there for patterns and they're often going to see things that really aren't there."
90
When people believe that they can predict a sequence of outcomes based on laws of probability, such as predicting the results of of flipping a coin ten times leads to?
Misconceptions of Chance
91
What are the six mistakes that people often make in judgements of representativeness?
1. Insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes 2. Insensitivity to sample size 3. Misconceptions of chance 4. Insensitivity to predictability 5. Illusion of validity 6. Misconceptions of regression
92
What are the differences between Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and Recurrent neural networks (RNNs)?
While CNNs are a type of deep learning algorithm that are commonly used for image recognition tasks, RNNs are a type of deep learning algorithm that are commonly used for natural language processing tasks.
93
Fill in the missing word: The hindsight bias is a cognitive bias in which individuals overestimate their ability to have predicted an event _________ it has occurred.
after
94
What happens when people fail to recognise the effect of regression?
People overestimate the effectiveness of punishment and underestimate the effectiveness of reward.
95
Considering the framing effect, would people be more likely to choose a surgery with a high survival rate, if it was described as having a: 90% chance of success; or a 10% chance of failure.
People would be more likely to choose the surgery if it was described as having a 90% chance of success, even though both descriptions convey the same statistical information.
96
Describe confirmation bias
If we're familiar with the idea of something, we will seek out evidence which justifies our preconceived idea and we won't look for ideas that are not in line with the idea
97
What is anchoring?
Anchoring is a phenomenon in which estimates are biased toward the initial values, or starting points, from which they are adjusted.
98
George is scared to go to the beach after watching a horror movie about a shark harming people around beaches. Although, the likelihood of this occurring is extremely low. What type of bias is this an example of?
Availability Bias
99
True or False: People tend to overestimate the chance of success and underestimate the level of risk
True. Due to the anchoring heuristic, we tend to overestimate the likelihood of multiple events occurring in succession (i.e., conjunctive events, which is often necessary for something to be successful), while underestimating the likelihood of a single event occurring (i.e., disjunctive events, which is usually the case when evaluating the risk of something complex failing or an adverse situation from happening).
100
Do intuitive judgments affect sample size?
No. Intuitive judgments are not affected by the sample size, they are dominated by the sample proportion.
101
True or False: In making judgements under uncertainty, people employed representativeness when they are trying to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to B
TRUE
102
You reward yourself for doing well on a quiz by getting a drink that you like and afterwards do worse the next time you take a quiz of equal difficulty. You notice a pattern and conclude that drinks you like make you do worse at your quizzes. If your judgement is wrong, what phenomenon could explain this instead?
Regression to the mean
103
Two teachers at a school are discussing their students' exam performance. They noted that when students were praised highly for their performance, their performance on the following exam declined. Conversely, when students were harshly criticised, their following exam performance seemed to improve. The teachers erroneously concluded that positive feedback hindered exam performance and harsh feedback improved exam performance. The teachers may have reached this incorrect conclusion due to a lack of understanding of which phenomenon?
Regression towards the mean. This is a statistical phenomenon that occurs when repeated measurements are made on the same sample. It outlines that in any series with complex phenomena that are dependent on many variables, where chance is involved, extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more moderate ones. If a sample performed well on a task on occasion 1, when tested again, average performance will most likely be found to have decreased, while the opposite is found for a poorer-performing group. Thus, in this situation, the failure to understand the effect of regression lead the teachers to overestimate the effectiveness of punishment and to underestimate the effectiveness of reward.
104
True/False Experts are often required to express their beliefs about a quantity in the form of a probability distribution in decision analysis
TRUE
105
What is Bayes' rule?
A formula used to calculate the probability of an event based on prior knowledge or information.
106
In the words of Danny Kahnemen, what were the two systems we had to combat the mechanisms that are operating when dealing and evaluating claims dealing with issues such as psychic claims?
We have an intuitive system that registers associations and an a rational reflective system to inspect and evaluate the accuracy of those claims.
107
True or False? In regards to adjustment and anchoring bias, the chain-like structure of conjunctions leads to underestimation and the funnel-like structure of disjunctions leads to overestimation.
False. (The chain-like structure of conjunctions leads to OVERESTIMATION and the funnel-like structure of disjunctions leads to UNDERESTIMATION)
108
Fill in the blank: The ____ heuristic involves making decisions based on the frequency or likelihood of an event.
Frequency or probability
109
Describe illusory correlations
The tendency for people to perceive a relationship between two variables that are not actually related (or the frequency in which two events co-occur); or to overestimate the relationship between two variables/events. This often occurs when people have pre-existing beliefs/stereotypes about people/events and then selectively attending to that information that confirms those beliefs (linked to confirmation bias).
110
What is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
The anchoring and adjustment heuristic is a cognitive bias that occurs when people make estimates or judgments by starting from an initial value (the anchor) and adjusting it based on additional information.
111
A former student of Tom Gilovich's, Scott Lillienfeld calls what concept the mother of all biases?
Confirmation Bias - the idea that we have tendencies to find information to support our beliefs to evidently be true and not evidence to also go against it.
112
What bias causes us to struggle to explain the underlying workings of a phenomena to someone who has no knowledge of the topic.
The curse knowledge is a bias that blocks our ability to clearly explain a topic to someone who doesn't have the same level of understanding. Because our understand of a topic has been transformed through specific pieces of information, or experiences, we struggle to clearly explain our knowledge as we cannot mentally regress to a point in which we didn't have our current understanding.
113
True or false? We tend to believe other people have the same opinions as we do
TRUE
114
What is the name of the following misconception: people expect randomly generated events to resemble the already-existent process, even when the sequence is short
Misconception of chance!
115
_____ refers to the tendency for extreme values in a dataset to be followed by with less extreme scores in subsequent measures.
Regression to the mean
116
Define the “False Consensus Effect”
The tendency of people to see more consensus for their beliefs than the actuality, that is the real consensus that was proven by statistics or other sorts of data.
117
Sally rewards herself with ice-cream every time she plays an excellent game of golf. However, every time she eats ice-cream, she doesn’t play as well the next day. Should Sally stop rewarding herself with ice-cream? :(
No! The ice-cream is likely NOT the reason for her poorer performance the next day. She is simply displaying ‘regression toward the mean’. If she plays an amazing game of golf, she is statistically more likely to play a “not-so-good” game next time.
118
What is the Gambler's Fallacy an example of?
The Gambler's Fallacy is an example of the misconceptions of chance that occur in the Representativeness Heuristic e.g., it is thought that a sequence of reds in roulette is 'due' for a black because that would make it more representative of 'randomness'
119
How is the Curse of Knowledge and Hindsight Bias related?
Both involve an individual overestimating a person's knowledge and failing to take the perspective of an individual who lacks that knowledge.
120
True or False? Chance is commonly viewed as a self-correcting process in which a deviation in one direction induces a deviation in the opposite direction to restore the equilibrium.
TRUE
121
Explain Illusion of validity ?
The unwarranted confidence which is produced by a good fit between the predicted outcome and the input information can be called the illusion of validity
122
What is the availability heuristic?
The availability heuristic is a cognitive bias that occurs when people judge the likelihood of an event based on how easily it comes to mind.
123
True/False The reliance on clarity as an indication of distance leads to common biases in the estimation of distance.
True. The article provides an example of how the reliance on clarity as an indication of distance can lead to biases in the estimation of distance, specifically overestimating distances when visibility is poor and underestimating distances when visibility is good.
124
In the red marble experiment conducted by Bar-Hillel, which type of event did subjects prefer to bet on?
The conjunctive event (e.g., drawing a red marble seven times in succession from a bag containing 90% red and 10% white marbles)
125
What is the bias when people choose to believe what they want to believe?
Confirmation Bias.
126
Sally is invited to Europe to see her friend who recently moved there. She checks how long she has to travel and realises she'll need to take a 13 hour flight. She calls her friend back and tells her that she can't make it, and they'd have to meet halfway because she had recently read an article that said that longer flights are more risky than shorter ones, and last night on the news there was a story that a plane had crashed going from Australia to Europe. Which heuristic did Sally rely on to make this decision?
The availability heuristic.
127
Artificial inflation of the base price of an item that is now ON SALE is an example of what?
Anchoring: the discount itself is given extra credibility by the higher base price, despite the value of the item remaining unchanged.
128
True/False The process of constructing a subjective probability distribution involves asking the expert to select values at different percentiles of their subjective probability distribution, which allows for a range of possible outcomes to be established.
TRUE
129
Why can heuristics sometimes be problematic?
heuristics can lead to biases such as overconfidence, confirmation bias, and neglect of base rates
130
John is conducting a job interview, with two potential candidates for his law firm (Alex and Bob). He has not met the candidates, but knows that one candidate is a highly experienced solicitor, and the other is a recent university graduate with minimal experience. Alex is dressed smartly and carries a briefcase. Bob has a full-sleeve tattoo. John takes one look at the candidates and assumes Alex is the solicitor, hiring him on the spot. In fact, Bob is the experienced solicitor. What heuristic is John exemplifying here in his evaluation of the candidates?
Representativeness heuristic - John evaluates Alex as more likely to be the solicitor as he better resembles the stereotype of one.
131
True/False Many decisions are based on beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events
Tru. The article clearly states that beliefs about the likelihood of uncertain events, expressed as statements or numerical values, are often used in decision-making.
132
What is the representativeness heuristic?
The representativeness heuristic is a heuristic principle that people use to evaluate probabilities based on the degree to which one thing is representative or similar to another thing.
133
Judgment of probability is often not influenced by which representative factors effectively?
1. Prior probability or base-rate frequency 2. Sample size 3. Chance deviations being diluted. 4. Sensitivity to predictability, based on evidence reliability. 5. Warranted confidence or validity from inputs. 6. Role of regression.
134
Steven is a huge Donald Trump fan. Accordingly, he tends to only seek out news articles that align with his positive beliefs about Trump. What bias is exemplified here by Steven?
Confirmation bias. As stated in the video, this is the idea that, if we want to believe something, we will exclusively look for evidence for it and be 'hostile' or averse to evidence against it.
135
What is the Availability Heuristic?
The Availability Heuristic is when people judge the frequency of an event by the ease with which instances of the event come to mind
136
Why are heuristics useful?
People rely on making heuristics as it allows them to simplify complex situations and arrive at a decision more quickly in situations where time and resources are limited or when there are a lot of uncertainties.
137
Describe the fallacy associated with Regression to the Mean.
Attributing some intervention as the cause of a regression to the mean, instead of a natural return to what typically happens.
138
What is the False Consensus Effect?
The False Consensus Effect is the phenomenon where we overestimate the degree to which other people share our beliefs and opinions(we believe and what we think other people believe).
139
The article mentions several heuristics, which of the following is NOT one of them? a) Availability b) Confirmation c) Anchoring and adjustment d) Correspondence
d) Correspondence
140
What does 'insensitivity to prior probabilities of outcomes' imply?
We give probabilities to the likelihood of events without considering prior probabilities e.g., when we are given the characteristics of a person and have to give the probabilities that they are a nurse or a school principal, we don't consider that nurses are much more abundant in the population, but instead, only consider the characterises of the individuals.
141
There is not a relationship between personality and healthy marriage.This statement is true or wrong?
Wrong
142
What is the term "false consensus effect" based on?
The assumption that their personal qualities, beliefs, actions and characteristics are relatively widespread throughout the general population.
143
Describe the representative heuristic and give an example
When the likelihood of something is evaluated by how similar it is to something else (how much 'A' is representative of 'B'). Eg. The likelihood that Steve is a librarian and not a farmer will be judged by how similar he is to the stereotype of a librarian.
144
Tom Gilovich describes hindsight bias as one part of the broader "The curse of knowledge". Explain what this bias is.
Hindsight bias occurs when you've learned something and you can no longer view the world as you did before knowing it. This can introduce bias as you view past events as more easily predicted than they were.
145
What is the bias that makes us immediately believe what comes to mind?
Availability Bias.
146
How does the availability heuristic affect judgments and decisions?
The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut where people judge the likelihood of an event based on how easily they can recall or imagine examples of it. This can lead to biases in judgments and decisions, such as overestimating the likelihood of rare events.
147
What is the definition of a heuristic, according to Tversky and Kahneman's 1974 study on judgment under uncertainty?
According to Tversky and Kahneman's 1974 study on judgment under uncertainty, a heuristic is a mental shortcut or rule of thumb that people use to simplify decision-making and problem-solving in situations where the information available is incomplete or ambiguous. Heuristics can be useful in many cases, but they can also lead to biases and errors in judgment.
148
True or False: Tom Gilovich explains that our very limited perspective on the world introduces to us all sorts of bias and misconception because we are only seeing a portion of the world, and we are only fed information by that small portion that we see.
TRUE
149
The base rate fallacy was indirectly discussed and described in this article in relation to representativeness. True or false: The base rate fallacy is where people rely too heavily on base rate information (statistical information about the frequency or probability of an event occurring in a given population), instead of relying on more specific/individual information to make decisions.
False. The base rate fallacy is the opposite - people relying too heavily on specific/individual information rather than the broader statistics provided by the base rate information that can provide a more accurate assessment of the situation. It was described in the article as "insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes".
150
What is the bias often associated with the broader phenomenon "The Curse of Knowledge"?
Hindsight Bias.
151
How can relying on heuristic principles be detrimental?
Since these heuristics reduce the complexities of assessing probabilities and predicting values into simpler judgmental operations, they can lead to systematic errors.
152
What does the Tom Gilovich state in the interview about how we can learn to think better or more effectively?
Accepting that we know far less than we think we might, and ridding ourselves of overconfidence. He also emphasises recognising the nuance and shades of grey that make up the world, that very few things are black or white in reality.
153
How can being aware of heuristics and biases improve decision-making processes?
Being aware of heuristics and biases can improve decision-making processes by helping people recognise when they are using mental shortcuts that may lead to errors. By being aware of heuristics and biases, people can also take steps to avoid them such as seeking out additional information or taking a more systematic approach to decision-making.
154
True OR False: The intuitive everyday scientist uses a radically different logical framework to that of a "professional" scientist.
FALSE! The intuitive scientist, and those that practice science for a living, both see phenomena in the wider world and decide to ask question to try and understand their inner workings. We both identify an issue or occurrence, and ask questions or run tests (albeit to different extents) to understand better the world around us.
155
How can the rational reflective system help us make better judgements?
The rational reflective system works to balance and in some cases override our intuitive thoughts about a phenomena or situation. Through critical thinking training the rational part inside can ask, "is there another way we can think about this?"
156
Regreisson Towards The Mean (RTM) was first documented in the late 19th century by
Sir Francis Galton
157
What are biases, and how do they relate to heuristics?
Biases are systematic deviations from rational judgment or decision-making, and they often result from the use of heuristics. For example, the availability heuristic can lead to biases if people overestimate the likelihood of events that are more memorable.
158
The heuristic, availability, used to assess probability and predict values, leads to which predictable biases?
1. Biases due to the retrievability of instances. 2. Biases from the effectiveness of a search set. 3. Biases of imaginability.
159
What is the availability heuristic?
It is the tendency for people to judge the probability of an event based on how easy it is for them to recall prior occurrences of it.
160
What further emphasises the illusion of validity, how is this contradictory to statistical theory?
If a high internal consistent pattern exists, one is even more confident of their prediction. However, highly consistent patterns are in fact redundant and correlated and thus reducing the accuracy of predicability
161
Define representativeness heuristic
It is a cognitive bias that involves making assumptions about the likelihood of an event based on how well one believes they are associated. Often this mental shortcut can perpetuate stereotypes
162
What are the pros and cons of the three heuristics discussed in the reading?
PROS: highly economical and usually effective CONS: lead to systematic and predictable errors, bias
163
Availability heuristic's rely on
information that comes to mind quickly or is most available to us.
164
"Law of small numbers" are a belief regarding
that small samples are highly representative of the populations from which they are drawn.
165
(T or F) Whether or not a description is favourable does not affect accuracy of predictions.
FALSE
166
Define the availability heuristic.
The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that people use to assess the frequency or probability of an event by the ease with which instances or occurrences can be brought to mind.
167
What is the definition of "Unsupervised Learning" according to the video?
It is a type of machine learning where the algorithm is trained on unlabeled data, which means there is no output data provided during training.
168
People would typically rely on ____ when judging the degree to which A is representative of B, or to which A resembles B.
Representativeness
169
Define "anchoring" with regards to heuristics and biases
A phenomenon in which an individual's decision is influenced by a particular (and often arbitrary) reference point or "anchor" whereby subsequent judgments or decisions are made with relation to said anchor.
170
When does 'anchoring' occur?
Anchoring occurs when the subject's starting point is provided, and they base their estimate on the result of some incomplete computation.
171
Define the term 'anchoring.'
Anchoring is a cognitive bias that occurs when a person relies heavily on an early piece of information they were given, even if evidence presented later contradicts it.
172
List 3 issues with using the representativeness heuristic
Any 3 of: Insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes Insensitivity to sample size Misconceptions of chance Insensitivity to predictability The illusion of validity Misconceptions of regression
173
You have adopted a brand new puppy and have been told that it enjoys playing tug of war and is quite talkative. Afterwards you decide to test that claim by taking notes of how long it's quiet or playing fetch. Is this an example of confirmation bias?
No. However, it would be if you were to take notes about how talkative the puppy is and how much it likes tug of war
174
Fill in the blank: In addition to ____, there are other factors, such as salience, which affect the retrievability of instances.
familiarity
175
The three heuristics that are employed to assess probabilities and to predict values in the article :Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases are 1,____ 2,____ 3,____
1,Representativeness 2,Availability 3, Adjustment and Anchoring
176
True or false: A pronounced bias is when something happens right after something, we assume there is a causal relationship.
True
177
True or False? Heuristics are unbiased
FALSE
178
___________ is a bias in judgment that occurs when people judge the likelihood of an event based on how well it matches their preconceptions or stereotypes, rather than considering statistical probabilities or base rates.
Representativeness bias
179
___heuristic involves judging the likelihood of an event based on how easily examples of that event come to mind.
Availability
180
When is the representativeness heuristic used?
The representativeness heuristic is usually used for decisions that surround probability of events.
181
Kevin is a tall, muscular man. He refers to the gym as his second home and both of his arms are covered in tattoos. What is most likely to be Kevin's occupation? 1. Biker 2. Athlete 3. Registered Nurse 4. Tattoo Artist
Kevin is most likely to be a registered nurse as statistically it is one of the largest employed careers in Australia.
182
Peter dislikes the president of his country. To see if he is right he only talks to his friends and family who similarly dislike the president. Peter then concludes that most people living in his country dislike the president. What did Peter just fall victim to?
Peter fell victim to the false consensus effect.
183
List and explain the 3 heuristics discussed in the Tversky and Kahneman article.
Availability heuristic - how easily examples or instances come to mind Representativeness heuristic - how well a particular case fits a stereotypical or representative prototype Anchoring and adjustment heuristic - how people rely too heavily on the first piece of information they receive when making a decision
184
When does anchoring occur?
Anchoring occurs when a starting point is provided and when a subject establishes their estimate on the results of incomplete computation
185
As a result of the Adjustment and Anchoring heuristic, are people more likely to view conjunctive or disjunctive events as holding a higher probability of occurring?
This introduces a bias that views conjunctive events as more probable. This is a result of anchoring, as conjunctive events are usually a series of higher-probability events, rather than one lower-probability event.
186
(Fill in the blank) The failure to understand the effect of _______ leads to overestimate the effectiveness of punishment and to underestimate the effectiveness of reward?
Regression
187
How does the base rate fallacy relate to the use of heuristics in decision-making?
This fallacy relates to the use of heuristics in decision-making because heuristics often involve ignoring base rate information in favour of more easily accessible or salient information.
188
Define confirmation bias
Confirmation bias is the tendency to look for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's pre-existing beliefs.
189
How does more information lead to less bias
When there is a lack of information, biases are introduced due to the retrievability of instances.
190
Zoe is a cheerful and vibrant young woman. She loves sports and watches her favourite teams religiously. She also loves dancing and has had dancing lessons since being a very small child. She is fit and flexible. Keeping in mind the base rates of employment types in the population, would you guess Zoe’s profession is teaching, or cheerleading?
Teaching
191
The problem of regression towards the mean can be found in which type of heuristic?
a. Availability; b. Anchoring; c. Representativeness; d. Adjustment
192
Flight training instructors noted that praise for a smooth landing is typically followed by a poorer landing on the next try, while harsh criticism after a rough landing is usually followed by an improvement on the next try. The instructors concluded that verbal rewards are detrimental to learning, while verbal punishments are beneficial. What statistical phenomenon are they failing to consider?
Regression to the mean
193
Fred believes that the Earth is flat and regularly engages with media that also share this opinion. He does not seek out information that disagrees with his opinion and dismisses others when they argue the Earth is round. What is this an example of?
This is an example of Confirmation Bias as Fred is only seeking evidence that is consistent with his belief and is hostile towards information that is inconsistent.
194
What is the Hindsight Bias?
Hindsight Bias is where you overestimate the predictability of an event after that event has already occurred because you are aware of more information than you were previously.
195
What is the representativeness heuristic, and how does it impact decision-making?
The representativeness heuristic is a mental shortcut where people judge the likelihood of an event based on how closely it resembles a typical example or prototype. This can impact decision-making by leading people to overlook base rates or other relevant information.
196
What is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
The anchoring and adjustment heuristic is the tendency to be influenced by an initial estimate or starting point, even if it is irrelevant to the decision at hand.
197
Jane has arthritis, and a friend tells her there is a wonderful new homoeopathic remedy for arthritis. Jane is in a lot of pain and wants to believe this will help her, so she begins researching, specifically googling questions like "how homotopy will irradicate arthritis", "best homoeopathic remedy for arthritis", and "how homoeopathy cured my arthritis". What kind of bias is Jane subject to?
Confirmation bias
198
(True or False)Based on the Bar-Hillel study, people tend to overestimate the probability of conjunctive events.
True. People tend to overestimate the probability of conjunctive events
199
Representativeness is: a. Usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. b. Usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process. c. Often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development.
b. Usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process.
200
Name one (1) example of bias mentioned in the Tversky and Kahneman paper that the availability heuristic falls victim to.
Any of the following are examples of appropriate answers: - Biases due to the retrievability of instsnces. - Biases due to the effectiveness of a search set. - Biases of imaginability. - Illusory correlation.
201
True or false: People are more likely to be swayed by a compelling narrative than by data and statistics.
True. Humans tend to relate more to narratives than to data, which is why storytelling is an effective way to convey complex ideas and research findings.
202
Why is the anchoring and adjustment heuristic insufficient?
Research has shown that people do not adjust their estimates enough from the initial anchor, leading to biases in their judgements. It is suggested that people are too influenced by the first piece of information they receive and this inhibits their ability to adjust correctly with new information.
203
What is one limitation of employing the heuristics discussed in this article (representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios & adjustment from an anchor)?
Heuristics often lead to systematic and predictable errors.
204
The article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgments under uncertainty. List the three heuristics described.
1. Representativeness 2. Availability 3. Adjustment from an anchor
205
What is Confirmation Bias
The tendency to seek, interpret or recall information that supports our claims and refute other information that does not support our claims.
206
Why do people tend to rely on intuition rather than probability studies when confronted with a question on representativeness?
This typically occurs when the person who is questioned has been provided with some information that can be used to judge against stereotypes. When no information is given, prior probability information is properly utilised.
207
Define the term "Representativeness Heuristic" and provide an example.
Representativeness Heuristic - estimating the likelihood of a sample result based on existing category prototype. example - providing a photo of a guy wearing a suit with a briefcase then asking participants what job they believe the man has, applying representativeness heuristic, the participants could say businessman as the man is dressed like the stereotype of a businessman.
208
what are the 3 heuristics employed in making judgments under uncertainty discussed in this article
1. representativeness 2. availability of instances or scenarios 3. adjustment from an anchor
209
Why is the representative heuristic problematic?
The approach to judgment of probability leads to errors, because of the representativeness, or similarity is not influenced by several factors that should affect judgment of probability.
210
In the video, “Extraordinary Claims: Uncut conversation with Tom Gilovich”, what is Tom referring to when he mentions “the mother of all biases”? Define this term in your own words.
Confirmation Bias – i.e., the tendency to confirm our own preconceptions and look for evidence that supports our existing beliefs and previous experience, rather than looking for evidence that opposes them.
211
What is the framing effect?
The influence of the way a problem or choice is presented on people's judgments and decisions.
212
Fill in the blank: The confirmation bias refers to our tendency to seek out and interpret information that confirms our existing beliefs, while ___________ information that contradicts them.
Ignoring or discounting
213
True or False: Events which are more retrievable or salient to the individual can contribute to biased decisions.
True. People overestimate the probabilities of events if their memories or knowledge about those events are highly retrievable or salient.
214
Fill in the blanks: One reason folk-tale beliefs, such as thing's happening in _, occur when there is a lack of _, is because the human brain is extraordinarily good at detecting _.
One reason folk-tale beliefs, such as thing's happening in three's, occur when there is a lack of evidence, is because the human brain is extraordinarily good at detecting patterns. The human mind will subconsciously find patterns in the natural world (although not always perfectly), leading us to believe in such phenomena as things happening in three's, even if we don't consciously have any scientific evidence to base these claims; such as the occurrence of natural disasters, homicides, or deaths of celebrities.
215
Fill in the blank: The ___ heuristic instructs that individuals will assess the probability of an event by reference to their ability to bring instances of said event to mind.
'Availability'.
216
What are heuristics?
Heuristics are principles that allow individuals to simplify complex tasks that require assessing probabilities and predicting values to make decisions faster
217
What is the availability heuristic?
The availability heuristic is a judgmental heuristic used to assess the frequency or probability of an event by the ease with which instances or occurrences can be brought to mind.
218
What kind of processing can be used to extract information from electronic health records (EHRs) and improve documentation accuracy?
Natural language processing (NLP)
219
Sarah is afraid to go into the ocean. She remembers a story from the news last week of a shark attack and she believes it is highly likely she will be attacked by a shark! What heuristic is Sarah relying on to inform her beliefs?
The Availability Heuristic
220
What does this scenario (discussed in the interview) demonstrate: You felt unwell for a while, but today you feel even worse which makes you decide to see a doctor. Following the treatment you start to feel better again. Surely the treatment must be very effective! A) Hindsight Bias B) Base rate fallacy C) Regression to the mean
C) as you went to seek treatment at the peak of your unwell-being, you would naturally feel better/ go back to a normal level just because of time passing. Thus, nothing can be said about the effectiveness of the treatment.
221
What is regression towards the mean? Provide an example.
Regression towards the mean refers to the tendency for extreme or unusual scores on a random variable to become less extreme or return to the mean on a subsequent measurement. For example, consider a study that measures the academic performance of a group of students over time. If some students perform exceptionally well on an exam, they are likely to score somewhat lower on the next exam.
222
A politician uses evidence to support his claim that vaping should banned, although ignores any evidence refuting his claim. What type of bias is this an example of?
Confirmation Bias
223
Explain the two ways in which someone using the representativeness heuristic would be insensitive to sample size.
1. Evaluating the likelihood of a sample result by the similarity of it to the population parameters regardless of the size of the sample. In reality, smaller samples are more likely to be less representative of population parameters than larger samples. 2. Underestimating the effect of posterior odds/ estimates are unaffected by the size of the sample. In reality, there are larger posterior odds in the larger sample than the smaller sample.
224
explain the intuitive scientist metaphor
it draws a parallel between what scientists do (professionally understand the world) and regular people trying to figure out the world around us. There are lots of similarities between what we do as people and what scientists do.
225
How did Tversky and Kahneman's research on heuristics and biases challenge traditional models of rational decision-making
Tversky and Kahneman's research challenged the assumption of rational decision-making in economics and other fields, showing that people often rely on heuristics and fall prey to cognitive biases when making judgments under uncertainty.
226
What does the acronymn OCEAN stand for?
Open to experience, Conscientiousness, Extroversion, Agreeableness, Neurotic
227
True or False: The Law of Small Numbers outlines that small sample sizes can be representative of whole populations when extrapolated
False, a common error researchers make occurs when small samples are used to predict trends across a large population. This results in a lack of replicability and an overestimation of research significance.
228
Find the fitting bias that best explains the following situation : Due to _____________, people are likely to attribute a better performance from a person on task directly following an extremely bad one to the criticism the first attempt provoked towards the person performing the task
misconception of regression towards the mean
229
What are a few reasons we often overestimate the extent to which others hold the same beliefs as we do?
People generally have beliefs and opinions that are grounded in what they believe to be reality and that they have gathered compelling evidence for. They would therefore naturally assume that other people would have the same evidence and perception of reality.
230
Define the term “Availability Bias”.
Availability Bias - a bias in judgment that occurs when people rely too heavily on information that is readily available in their memory, rather than considering all available information.
231
Describe why we believe in erroneous beliefs?
Confirmation bias, where if we want to believe something, we seek evidence to support the belief but not against it. When our belief is seen/supported by something, we take note and if it is not supported, we do not consider it as evidence against the belief.
232
If a person decides not to go swimming in the ocean after hearing a recent news report of a shark attack, even though the likelihood of another shark attack is extremely low, what heuristic are they using to make this decision?
Availability heuristic
233
True or False: Heuristics are always accurate and reliable.
Answer: False.
234
True or False: Three heuristics are often applied when making decisions during uncertainty: (i) representativeness, (ii) availability of instances, and (iii) adjustment from an anchor. Although sometimes economical and effective, they could cause systematic and predictable errors.
TRUE
235
True or False: Many decisions are based on beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events such as the outcome of an election, the guilt of a defendant, or the future value of the dollar.
TRUE
236
True or False: Biases in judgment can result from cognitive limitations and heuristics.
TRUE
237
A person may overestimate the likelihood of a shark attack as they have seen several news stories about shark attacks in the previous few weeks, despite shark attacks being relatively rare. What type of heuristic is this?
The Availability Heuristic
238
The article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgments under uncertainty. Name the 3 heuristics.
1. representativeness, 2. availability, 3. adjustment from an anchor
239
Why do we tend to see patterns where there may not be any?
Our brains are wired to identify patterns and make connections, but this can lead us to perceive patterns that do not actually exist.
240
The ________ theory is a conceptualisation of the sampling process that underlies the drawing of samples that accurately reflect the population from which the sample is drawn and from which inferences could be made.
Sampling
241
True of False: Human beliefs and concepts based on little to no evidence are usually social constructs, not based on the brains tendencies.
FALSE: These sorts of beliefs in the face of uncertainty can often be attributed to the brain's highly tuned pattern recognition abilities.
242
When is the availability heuristic used?
The availability heuristic is usually used for decisions regarding how often or plausible something is.
243
How does anchoring differ from confirmation bias?
Anchoring is a bias related to inappropriate attachment to the first information received, while confirmation bias is a bias where people seek out and interpret information in a way that confirms their existing beliefs or hypotheses.
244
True or False: Representative heuristic is a cognitive bias. When people make judgments or decisions, they rely too much on the similarity between an event or object and the image of the event or object in their minds, while ignoring other possible information or evidence.
TRUE
245
The 3 heuristics that Tversky and Kahneman identified are...
Representativeness, Availability, and Anchoring & Adjustment
246
What is the conjunction fallacy?
The conjunction fallacy is the mistaken belief that the probability that the probability of two events occuring together is greater than the probability of either event occurring alone, despite statistical evidence to the contrary.
247
Explain what base rates are and how they relate to the gambler's fallacy.
A base rate is the base probability something has of occurring (e.g. I will pull out a red card from a deck of cards 50% of the time). The gambler's fallacy is our minds ignoring the base rate due to us believing past individual events change future results the same individual event (e.g., the coin landed on heads 3 times in a row, it should be tails next). Due to the events being individual in nature, the base rate remains the same regardless of the previous result.
248
Name, and describe with an example, one issue with using the representativeness heuristic.
Insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes. Prior probability of outcomes does not affect how representative 'A' appears to be of 'B'. So when we judge the likelihood of something by its representativeness, we ignore how likely those things currently are/were. For example, if there are much more farmers than librarians in the population, it is more likely that any one person would be a farmer. However, if you have a personality description of Steve, you will judge he is likely to be a librarian if his description is similar to the stereotype of librarians.
249
In the adjustment and anchoring heuristic situations, people tend to ___ the probability of conjunctive events and ___ the probability of disjunctive events.
overestimate, underestimate
250
Stephen has seen his doctor to receive advice surrounding his lower back pain, frustrated that it has been disrupting his study schedule and sleep prior to the busy exam period. A few days later after completing his exams, Stephen concludes that his back pain had significantly reduced, so he should see his doctor if his back begins to hurt again. According to Tom Gilovich, what might Stephen’s recovery be an example of?
Regression to the mean.
251
What are the three heuristics utilized to make judments in uncertain circumstances?
1. Representiveness. 2. Availability of instances or scenarios. 3. Adjustment from anchor
252
Fill in the blank: The representativeness heuristic involves making decisions based on how well the situation matches a _______.
Answer: prototype or stereotype.
253
True or False: Confirmation bias occurs only for beliefs/topics that are salient, important, and personal to a given individual.
False. Confirmation bias is not exclusive to personally salient topics; even for beliefs in which an individual has no vested interest, there is a tendency to seek out evidence that's consistent with these prior beliefs.
254
What are heuristics?
Heuristics are mental shortcuts that people use to make decisions quickly.
255
Explain Phenomenon anchoring.
Different starting points yield different estimates, which are biased toward the initial values.
256
What is the Curse of Knowledge?
The Curse of Knowledge is the phenomenon where once we know something, it's really hard to take it away and see what the world was like before you knew it, which is why teaching is hard.
257
What is the ideal situation for storytelling and science writing according to Tom Gilovich?
To conduct empirical tests and embed the conclusions into stories that people can relate to.
258
What are some common heuristics that people use to make judgments and decisions under uncertainty?
representativeness heuristic (making judgments based on the similarity of an event to a prototype or stereotype), the availability heuristic (making judgments based on the ease with which examples come to mind), and the anchoring and adjustment heuristic (making judgments based on an initial value, or "anchor," and adjusting from that point)
259
True of False: We tend to see an order in things where there is none.
TRUE: Our brains have the tenency to organise random assortments into clusters when there is no order present.
260
What is regression to the mean, and what does it mean for judgment and decision-making?
Regression to the mean is the tendency for extreme values on a variable to move toward the average value on the next measurement. In judgment and decision-making, this can lead to errors if people assume that extreme values will persist over time or if they attribute extreme outcomes to causes that are unrelated to the variable being measured.
261
True or False: The best way to test whether a theory or hypothesis is true is to explicitly search for supporting evidence only.
False; you would be engaging in confirmation bias. Instead, you should always seek falsification/ non-supportive evidence as well.
