Class 3: Heuristics and biases Flashcards
Extraordinary Claims: Uncut conversation with Tom Gilovich and Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.
Which of the following is an example of the confirmation bias? a) Reading articles from both sides of a political debate to gain a balanced perspective b) Only reading articles that support your political views and ignoring articles that contradict them c) Reading articles that are neutral on a political issue and ignoring articles that take a stance d) Only reading articles that are easy to find and ignoring articles that are difficult to find
b) Only reading articles that support your political views and ignoring articles that contradict them
Why does hindsight and the curse of knowledge make it difficult for teachers to explain concepts?
It is difficult to put themselves into student’s shoes, as if they have no knowledge of the concept or know the outcome. The teacher must attempt change their perspective, and predict of the likelihood of themselves understanding the concept without the knowledge they currently have.
True or False: people tend to overestimate the validity of information when it is considered highly representative or consistent.
TRUE
Describe what an illusory correlation is and provide one example of a scenario where this bias may occur.
It is a bias in the judgment of the frequency with which two events co-occur. It involves perceiving an associative bond between two variables, when no such bond exists. E.g. A football fan always wears a specific jersey when watching his favorite team’s games. On a few occasions when he forgot to wear the jersey, his team lost. So, he believes him wearing the jersey leads to the team winning. This is an illusory correlation because his choice of clothing does not have any effect on the team’s performance.
Describe three heuristics that are used in making judgements under uncertainty
(I) Representativeness: is used when people are trying to evaluate the probability to which A resembles B. (II) Availability: is used when people try to assess the frequency of a class or a probability of an event by the ease to which these occurrences can be brought to mind. (III) Adjustment and Anchoring: is used when people try to make estimates, in which different starting points would lead to different estimates, with people tending to bias towards initial values.
What are the concerns with heuristics described in Tversky & Kahneman (1974) article?
This could point to systematic and predictable errors.
What is the importance of looking for evidence against a belief?
It is important to look for evidence against a belief in order to get a more balanced and accurate understanding of the situation.
How is the hindsight bias related/similar to the curse of knowledge?
in both instances once you have acquired key information its hard to take that knowledge away and then perceive the world as it was previously (whether it be falsely claiming to predict an outcome or no longer being able to explain a concept at a novice foundation).
What is confirmation bias?
If we want something to be true, we seek out evidence that is consistent with it and not against it
Choose the right option to fill in the blank : When someone evaluates the overall likeliness to - receive sufficient funding for a project - and have enough time to finish it - and gather sufficient knowledge about how to get it done as high because each of these events are very likely to happen individually, this person is ________ [underestimating/ overestimating] the probability of __________ [conjunctive/ disjunctive] events
Overestimating ; conjunctive
True or False: We tend to look for information in favour of an idea rather than against it, even if we don’t have a strong stake in an argument.
TRUE
True or False: People are generally sensitive to prior probability outcomes (base-rates) when using the representativeness heuristic.
FALSE
The gambler’s fallacy is the belief that…
the outcomes of an independent/random event are influenced by previous outcomes, suggesting that if an event has not happen for a while, it is bound/due to occur soon.
What is the confirmation bias mentioned in the article? a) The tendency to seek out information that supports our existing beliefs and ignore information that contradicts them b) The tendency to seek out information that contradicts our existing beliefs and ignore information that supports them c) The tendency to seek out information that is neutral and ignore both supportive and contradictory information d) The tendency to seek out information only when it is readily available and easy to find
a) The tendency to seek out information that supports our existing beliefs and ignore information that contradicts them
How does the belief in the “law of small numbers” impact scientists’ ability to conduct and draw conclusions from research?
Belief in the “law of small numbers” results in researchers selecting inadequate sample sizes and overinterpreting their findings.
True or False: Misconceptions of chance are limited to naive individuals. People who have been trained on statistics would not be affected by such bias.
False. In a study, a group of experienced psychology researchers (presumably familiar with the concept of misconception of chance) were also affected by the “Law of small numbers”.
What is the key difference between the availability heuristic (AH) and the representativeness heuristic (RH)?
AH = making judgements/decisions based on the availability & ease of accessing information. E.g., fear of flying after a plane crash. RH = making judgements/decisions based on how well an event, object or person matches a stereotype or category. E.g., assuming someone wearing glasses is intelligent.
TRUE/FALSE: Studies of choice among gamblers and of judgments of probability indicate that people tend to overestimate the probability of disjunctive events.
FALSE, they tend to underestimate the probability of disjunctive events, which is a result of anchoring. The probability of conjunctive events tend to be overestimated, not disjunctive.
What is the False Consensus Effect?
It is part of the phenomenon that we see more consensus for our beliefs than is the actual case. This can be due to our biases or different judgement & definitions of them.
Predictions made based off of representativeness, such as predicting the future stock worth of a company based of the companies description is called?
Insensitivity to predictability.
What are the three heuristics mentioned in the Tversky & Kahneman paper?
representativeness, availability, and adjustment from an anchor
True or False? Sometimes heuristics lead to errors in judgment.
True. Explanation: Heuristics are mental shortcuts that people use to make decisions and judgments quickly and efficiently. They can be very useful in many situations, but they can also lead to biases and errors in judgment. For example, the representativeness heuristic, which involves judging the probability of an event based on how similar it is to other events, can lead to errors if the person does not take into account the base rate of the event or other relevant factors. Therefore, it’s important to be aware of these biases and to use critical thinking and analysis when making decisions.
In relation to the H-T-H-T-T-H coin toss, what is a consequence of the belief in local representativeness?
The Gambler’s Fallacy
When is the heuristic ‘availability of instances or scenarios’ employed?
Availability of instances or scenarios is often employed when individuals are asked to evaluate the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development.
In Tom Gilovich’s conversation about extraordinary claims, what does he argue about the importance of evidence when evaluating such claims?
In Tom Gilovich’s conversation about extraordinary claims, he argues that when evaluating extraordinary claims, it’s important to have sufficient and reliable evidence to support them. He explains that people often have a tendency to accept extraordinary claims based on anecdotal evidence or personal experiences, rather than demanding scientific evidence and rigorous testing. Gilovich suggests that we should be more skeptical and critical of extraordinary claims and demand stronger evidence before accepting them as true.
TRUE OR FALSE: Based on the representativeness heuristic, when A is highly representative of B, the probability that A originates from B will be judged to be low.
FALSE - it will be judged to be high
True or False: Tom Gilovich suggests that we develop certain unfounded beliefs (for example, believing that natural disasters occur in sets of threes) due to the basic human instinct to find patterns in the world around us.
TRUE
Are participants more/less likely to consider the prior probability of a population when determining a subject’s job based on an unrelated personality description, and also what type of heuristics decision-making is potentially involved?
Less and Representativeness
How can a better understanding of heuristics and biases help us make more informed and effective decisions in uncertain situations?
A better understanding of heuristics and biases can help people make more informed and effective decisions in uncertain situations by providing them with tools to recognize and counteract their biases. For example, people can use deliberate strategies to avoid relying on heuristics when making important decisions.
What is the availability heuristic, and how does it impact our decision-making?
The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut where people make judgments based on how easily they can bring examples to mind. This can impact decision-making because people may overestimate the likelihood of events or scenarios that they have seen or heard about recently, while underestimating the likelihood of less salient events.
True or false? Kahnemann and Gilovich disagree about the fact that psychologists, being highly knowledgeable about biases and the scientific literature about it, are not as likely to be subject to biases in their practice.
FALSE : both recognize that despite advanced knowledge about biases, psychologists and scientists are still exposed to formulate some biased conclusions.
When is the adjusting and anchoring heuristic used?
This is usually used for decisions where a numerical decision is required based on the presence of a numerical value.
According to Tversky and Kahneman’s 1974 study ________ bias is a cognitive bias that occurs when people believe they are more likely to experience positive events and less likely to experience negative events compared to others.
Optimism.
David, a mature-age student, is convinced that the upcoming election will be a landslide in favour of the One Nation party, given the stress that his extended friends and family have experienced over the COVID-19 lockdowns and growing issues with immigration and refugees in a tight Australian job market. David is then shocked when the election result is a landslide in favour of the Greens, who directly oppose many of the One Nation policies. Which bias may David have succumbed to in this situation?
False consensus effect. David believes that most other Australians believe what he believes and will subsequently vote for One Nation as a result. This false belief is then challenged by the election’s actual outcome, where most individuals had voted for the Greens instead.
How can the representativeness heuristic lead to errors in decision-making?
This heuristic can influence judgement by leading people to ignore base rate information and focus on the similarity of the event to the prototype. The limitations of this heuristic are that it can lead to neglecting important information and overemphasising surface similarity, which can lead to errors in decision-making. m
True/False The representativeness heuristic leads to accurate judgments of probability.
False. The representativeness heuristic, in which probabilities are evaluated by the degree to which an object or event resembles a stereotype, often leads to errors in judgment because it does not take into account prior probabilities or other relevant factors.
True or false, for the concept of confirmation bias, normally, if a person believes in something, he will look for evidence to prove it, and at the same time, he will also look for evidence against it.
FALSE
What is the difference between the conformation bias and the hindsight bias?
Confirmation bias is based on the belief-alignment process (selected information that agrees with what we already think) while the hindsight bias is based on the belief-updating process (updated past thoughts because of new information).
Dan loves to to run and enjoys a good, tough competition. He has a muscular build, and loves using his small whiteboard to draw out game plays. From a list of sports (Rugby, Chess, Horse riding, or swimming), what sport is most likely to be associated with Dan? and what heuristic is commonly used to make this judgement?
’- Rugby - Representative heuristic - Dan is a guy, likes to run, enjoys competition, is muscular, and likes making game plays. However, none of those rule out that he can be a chess player. But using the representative heuristic, we are likely to go with rugby player as it is most similar to what we stereotype as representative of a rugby player.
Explain how judgments are all based on data of limited validity, which are processed according to heuristic rules.
The subjective assessment of probability resembles the subjective assessment of physical quantities such as distance or size.
Why would someone be more scared of sharks, than of driving in their car?
The availability heuristic! Shark attacks tend to receive greater emphasis in the media & elicit stronger emotional responses, whereas driving a car is a routine task that typically receives less attention in the media when accidents occur. Sharks are scarier, even though driving is actually more dangerous.
What is the Rational Reflective System? A) The mental process by which we identify patterns in the environment. B) The mental process by which we make decisions based on intuitive or “gut” feelings. C) The mental process by which we register associations that happen to go together in time or space as connected. D) The mental process by which we evaluate and correct our intuitive or automatic responses.
Answer: D
What is the Gambler’s Fallacy?
The idea that previous random events should predict future events, i.e.,” roulette wheel spun black 5 times, it has to be red next”
Identify and describe the two systems involved in thinking according to Tom Gilovich?
Intuitive System makes a bunch of associations about things that go together in space and time, causing us to think of those things as connected. Whereas the Rational reflective system allows you to inspect the information and question if it is true and what inferences can be drawn from it.
How does bias affect personality assessments?
There can be a tendency to answer questions in a socially or culturally desirable way
(T or F) Only laymen have a reliance on heuristics. Expert researchers are not prone to the same biases due to their years of experience, and can stop themselves from using any mental shortcuts.
F
What predictions is the adjustment and anchoring heuristic present in?
Numerical predictions where there is a relevant initial value present.
Fill in the blank. The tendency to think that other people believe what we believe is called the ‘ ‘ Consenus Effect. a) Confirmation b) Bias c) False d) True
c
Which phenomenon describes the tendency for people to rely too heavily on the first piece of information they receive when they are making a decisions.
Anchoring
Is the following statement true or false? Heuristics are often useful because they allow people to make quick decisions in complex situations. Heuristics can also lead to errors or biases in judgment, particularly in situations where they do not apply or when they are misapplied.
True
What is the availability heuristic?
The tendency to judge the probability of an event by how easily examples of the event come to mind.
What is the sunk cost fallacy?
The tendency to continue investing in a project or decision because of the resources already invested, even if those resources are now lost or unrecoverable.
Explain Base Rate Frequencies and in which heuristic are they often misunderstood/misrepresented?
Misrepresented in the Representativeness Heuristic. Base rate frequency refers to how often an event occurs in the general population, which has a higher impact on probability than the representativeness of such an event.
Define erroneous beliefs
An unfounded belief people create that often has little grounding or supporting evidence (if I swap from my slow line to a fast line at the grocery store, that line will begin to slow down making my decision pointless)
What is an example of a heuristic rule that people use to estimate distance?
An example of a heuristic rule that people use to estimate distance is the clarity of an object. The more sharply an object is seen, the closer it appears to be.
True or False: An individual will purposely seek out evidence to support their own beliefs, but if they have never considered a particular idea before and have no vested interest in it, they will seek out both evidence for and against the idea to compare if the new idea is true given the information.
False, an individual similar to their own beliefs will continue to only seek out evidence to support this new idea that they have been presented even if they have no vested interest rather than looking for evidence to disprove the new idea to avoid going against a belief and potentially experiencing cognitive dissonance.
What issues in judgment occur due to the adjustment and anchoring heuristic?
- Insufficient adjustment 2. Biases from anchoring, when evaluating conjunctive and distinctive occurrences, such as individuals overestimating the probability of conjunctive events, and underestimating how often disjunctive events occurred. 3. Anchoring judgment of subjective probability distributions beyond justified certainty, where one’s best estimate can not be an anchor. 3.
What is insensitivity to sample size?
A cognitive bias that happens where we disregard sample size when forming judgement and decision making in science. This occurs when the sample size isn’t in comparison to population being sampled.
If someone is attacked by a police officer and then attributives all police officers as violent is what form of bias?
Illusory correlation
True or False: Anchoring can be used in all kinds of situations.
False. The anchoring effect refers to when people evaluate a certain quantity, they are influenced by the information or figures obtained before, resulting in deviation.
Provide an example of an erroneous belief
’- a common belief that things happen in 3s (e.g. natural disasters)
True/False
FALSE
What is meant by “The subjective assessment of probability resembles the subjective assessment of physical quantities such as distance or size.” A. Probability is the exact same as measures like distance or size B. The way people estimate the likelihood of something happening (probability) is similar to how we estimate things like how far or big something is. C. Determining how big or how far something is, helps us when measuring the probability of something happening
B
T/F: If an individual selects from both X distribution and Y distribution (both are of same distribution), and the X score was k units away from the mean and it was not an extreme score, the Y score could be less than k units.
True. Regression towards the mean asserts that the second score would be random. The score could be less since the first score was not an extreme score, and thus there is a chance that the second score be less than k units.
What is the availability heuristic?
The availability heuristic is the tendency to judge the likelihood of an event based on how easily examples come to mind.
When people believe they have more control over situations than they actually do, leading to overconfidence in their judgments and decisions, what is this called
Illusionary thinking
Question: What is confirmation bias?
If we want to believe something, we will go and seek out evidence for it and we won’t eek out evidence against it
False consensus effect / consensus bias is
To see our own behaviour and jugdement as common and appropriet to existing circumstances.
The belief that pilots who receive verbal punishment increases flight landing success/learning is due to a failure to recognise and understand A gamblers fallacy, B regression to the mean, C post hoc ergo proper hoc, D illusions of validity
B regression to the mean
What is confirmation bias?
→ Confirmation bias is a cognitive process where individuals tend to seek out evidence that confirms their pre-existing beliefs, while ignoring or minimising evidence that is contradictory. New, ambiguous evidence is also often interpreted to align with one’s beliefs due to the process of confirmation bias.
What does the term “Curse of Knowledge” refer to?
The difficulty after learning something to see the world as it was before you learnt it
Is chance a self-correcting process?
No, despite being commonly viewed as a self-correcting process, the deviations are merely diluted as the process continues and hence appears as if it is self-correcting.
Define the belief of “law of numbers” ?
According to “law of numbers” even smaller samples are highly representative of the populations from which they are drawn.
Given the scenario below, which heuristic is being employed? Imagine that you are planning a trip to a foreign country and are trying to decide whether to purchase travel insurance. As you think about whether it’s worth the expense, you begin to recall stories you’ve heard from friends and family about their experiences traveling abroad. Some have had their luggage lost or stolen, others have become ill and needed medical attention, and a few have even been in accidents. As you consider these stories, you start to feel increasingly worried about the risks of traveling without insurance.
Availability Heuristic The availability heuristic causes you to rely on the most readily available information (in this case, the stories you’ve heard) to make judgments and decisions, rather than seeking out more comprehensive and accurate information about the risks of traveling. In this scenario, the availability heuristic may lead you to make the decision to purchase travel insurance based on a potentially exaggerated sense of risk, even if the actual risk of negative events happening is relatively low.
According to Tom Gilovich, ____ is the one of the most powerful cognitive mechanisms operating when we have our own beliefs or opinions.
Confirmation Bias
In Representativeness,why does assess the degree to which one person is representative of,or similar to the stereotype of a job will make serious errors.
Similarity or called representativeness, is not influenced by several factors that should affect judgments of probability.By another words,there are more factors than these two for people to judge the degree of representativeness but they have been ignored.
Why are psychics so successful in society?
Psychics predict many occurrences, which are often times very broad and up for interpretation by the subject. Even if, by chance, a prediction is confirmed, it often consumes the attention, and all of the predictions that did not come true are ignored. Confirmation bias is also in play here, where if the subject wants a prediction to be true, they will search for evidence that confirms it. This also happens in reverse, where if a prediction is not inline with their desires/beliefs, they will look for evidence to falsify it. It only takes a small amount of evidence for a person to confirm or deny a prediction in their head.
True or False: Researchers (especially psychologists) are not subject to bias.
False. Researchers might have more awareness about biases, but certainly also have „blind spots“.
Which of the following is not an example of regression to the mean? a) Nick goes to the doctor to have his blood pressure measured and it is high. The next week, he goes to the doctor to have his blood pressured measured, and it is now within normal range. b) Nick goes to the doctor to have his blood pressure measured and it is high. The doctor writes him a prescription for medication to reduce his blood pressure. Nick does not get the chance to fill his prescription the next week, and yet when he returns to the doctor, his measurements show is blood pressure is now within normal range. c) Nick has been feeling faint and his blood pressure is low. His doctor tells him to wear a blood pressure cuff for 24 hours to monitor his blood pressure over the course of the day. The results show that his average blood pressure over the 24 hours is much lower than is healthy. d) Nick is a good student, and got 5/5 for his first Judgment and Decision-Making quiz. The next week he also studies hard for the quiz, but only gets a 3 out of 5.
c
What is the False Consensus Effect?
The tendency to think other people have the same beliefs and opinions that we have.
If your employees produce terrible work one day, you yell at them, and then the next day they do better. Is it likely that you’re just excellent at motivating people?
No, regression to the mean suggests that after a deviation from the norm one day (i.e., terrible work) their performance is likely to be less extreme the second day due to statistical probability, and not because you yelled at them. You jerk.
TRUE OR FALSE? The false concensus effect is when we search for, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.
False. This is confirmation bias.
What is the representative heuristic?
It is when we estimate the probability of event A occurring based on its similarity to event B. In other words, it is when we use well know situations or stereotypes to make predictions about something that can be compared to the situation/stereotype.
What is the representativeness heuristic?
The representativeness heuristic is a cognitive bias that occurs when people judge the likelihood of an event based on how well it matches a particular prototype or stereotype.
Why are people often more compelled by (potentially false) examples of cause and effect, rather than solid data/evidence?
Humans are storytellers, and will often prefer receiving information through means of a relatable story, compared to data/evidence. To make data/evidence more compelling, it can be embedded into stories that people relate to.
Why do humans believe in superstitions with little to no evidence to support the idea?
Human brains are designed to find patterns and trends in the world, even when the occurrence is completely random, for example; mnm’s randomly poured in a bowl, the human brain will identify groups of colours
The ______ ______ is the erroneous belief that past independent events influence the likelihood of future events. It assumes that the probability of a specific outcome is affected by the outcome of previous events, despite the fact that each event is independent of the other.
Gambler’s fallacy
How does insensitivity to the prior probability of outcomes affect our decision-making ability?
If we are insensitive to the prior probability of outcomes, we ignore factors that don’t affect repressiveness but significantly affect the probability of an outcome.
What is Tom Gilovich’s reasoning behind the question “Why do we believe things in the absence of data or evidence to the contrary?”
Part of the job of the brain is to identify patterns, as it creates a feeling of security in knowing what to expect in order to avoid feelings of confusion or “the unknown.” He states, “It’s hard to get that job accomplished perfectly, so people look out there for patterns and they’re often going to see things that really aren’t there.”
When people believe that they can predict a sequence of outcomes based on laws of probability, such as predicting the results of of flipping a coin ten times leads to?
Misconceptions of Chance
What are the six mistakes that people often make in judgements of representativeness?
- Insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes 2. Insensitivity to sample size 3. Misconceptions of chance 4. Insensitivity to predictability 5. Illusion of validity 6. Misconceptions of regression
What are the differences between Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and Recurrent neural networks (RNNs)?
While CNNs are a type of deep learning algorithm that are commonly used for image recognition tasks, RNNs are a type of deep learning algorithm that are commonly used for natural language processing tasks.
Fill in the missing word: The hindsight bias is a cognitive bias in which individuals overestimate their ability to have predicted an event _________ it has occurred.
after
What happens when people fail to recognise the effect of regression?
People overestimate the effectiveness of punishment and underestimate the effectiveness of reward.
Considering the framing effect, would people be more likely to choose a surgery with a high survival rate, if it was described as having a: 90% chance of success; or a 10% chance of failure.
People would be more likely to choose the surgery if it was described as having a 90% chance of success, even though both descriptions convey the same statistical information.
Describe confirmation bias
If we’re familiar with the idea of something, we will seek out evidence which justifies our preconceived idea and we won’t look for ideas that are not in line with the idea
What is anchoring?
Anchoring is a phenomenon in which estimates are biased toward the initial values, or starting points, from which they are adjusted.
George is scared to go to the beach after watching a horror movie about a shark harming people around beaches. Although, the likelihood of this occurring is extremely low. What type of bias is this an example of?
Availability Bias
True or False: People tend to overestimate the chance of success and underestimate the level of risk
True. Due to the anchoring heuristic, we tend to overestimate the likelihood of multiple events occurring in succession (i.e., conjunctive events, which is often necessary for something to be successful), while underestimating the likelihood of a single event occurring (i.e., disjunctive events, which is usually the case when evaluating the risk of something complex failing or an adverse situation from happening).
Do intuitive judgments affect sample size?
No. Intuitive judgments are not affected by the sample size, they are dominated by the sample proportion.
True or False: In making judgements under uncertainty, people employed representativeness when they are trying to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to B
TRUE
You reward yourself for doing well on a quiz by getting a drink that you like and afterwards do worse the next time you take a quiz of equal difficulty. You notice a pattern and conclude that drinks you like make you do worse at your quizzes. If your judgement is wrong, what phenomenon could explain this instead?
Regression to the mean
Two teachers at a school are discussing their students’ exam performance. They noted that when students were praised highly for their performance, their performance on the following exam declined. Conversely, when students were harshly criticised, their following exam performance seemed to improve. The teachers erroneously concluded that positive feedback hindered exam performance and harsh feedback improved exam performance. The teachers may have reached this incorrect conclusion due to a lack of understanding of which phenomenon?
Regression towards the mean. This is a statistical phenomenon that occurs when repeated measurements are made on the same sample. It outlines that in any series with complex phenomena that are dependent on many variables, where chance is involved, extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more moderate ones. If a sample performed well on a task on occasion 1, when tested again, average performance will most likely be found to have decreased, while the opposite is found for a poorer-performing group. Thus, in this situation, the failure to understand the effect of regression lead the teachers to overestimate the effectiveness of punishment and to underestimate the effectiveness of reward.
True/False Experts are often required to express their beliefs about a quantity in the form of a probability distribution in decision analysis
TRUE
