class 10: the Sigmund curve Flashcards
the paradox of time
by the time you know where you ought to go, it is too late to go there
it is easy to explain looking at the past, but it won’t predict the future (especially in economics)
reason: the world changes continuously
sigmoid curve
explains our present discontents and confusions
first of the three devices to finding balance between contradictions
S shaped curve with units of time that become smaller and smaller as the world continuously changes
story of life itself
it can represent the story of empires, corporations’ lives, love relationships, etc
what is the key to constant growth
there is life beyond the curve
start new sigmoid curve at point A, when everything is going fine, before it starts to fall
many believe that it is dumb to change the current successful recipes
what happens when theres disaster on the curve
when it starts sloping down
it is at point B
here it is hard to pick yourself back up, in fact, you should be in the new curve
leaders are discredited and blamed, ressources are ded and energy is low
ex of point B: employee is fired
what are the characteristics of the new curve
the new curve is going to be noticeably different from the old, people also have to be different
new leaders
new ideas and new people must coexist with old curve to establish the new curve
what does the author sense in society in general
he senses that many institutions, societies, and individuals are in the shaded area
it creates times of confusion, uncertainty and fear
the first curve has been peaking everywhere
he believes capitalism has to reinvent itself
now, necessity if economic growth bears qualifications
we thought we knew how to run organizations, but we have to find new ways
we have to keep first curve going to understand what is happening
how to move on to the second curve?
discipline of the second curve
know where you are in the first curve (according to you)
always assume youre near point A and start preparing for second curve
organizations have to assume that their product life cycles are shorter
keeping both curves going should be a habit
what is the four stage cycle of discovery of the second curve
(discipline of the 2d curve)
- Questions
- give ideas, possibilities, and hypotheses
- the best of these must be tested out
- review
what does moving on require
discipline of the 2 curve
letting go of your past
if one is too attached to it, they will never change
requires the curvilinear logic
curvilinear logic
conviction that everything is a sigmoid curve
life has its ups and downs and that nothing lasts forever
not too obvious if still ascending first curve
it means starting life all over again, which gets harder as you get older
“Kaizen”
kaizen
Japanese word for continuous improvement
is it hard for a company to know where it is on the curve?
yeyeyeyeyeye
they don’t usually know and it depends on the industry
what is meant by the discipline of the second curve?
they way things are and function
the differences between this curve and the past
is includes the new generations and the new leaders or the “revamped” leaders that had to adapt
the discipline of the second curve requires us to have a certain discipline
what is included in such discipline?
How do we know where we are on the 1st curve?
Keeping the 2 curves going should be a habit
Benefits of the discipline of devising the 2nd curve.
The traditional four-stage of discovery: Questions; Ideas; Test; Review
Essential: Let go of your past
how do the original leaders react when its time to move on to a new curve
original leaders are those in charge of keeping first curve successful long enough
they won’t take the change very well
