CHP. 12 - Judgement & Reasoning

Question 1

Judgement

Answer 1

process through which people draw conclusions from the evidence they encounter

starts with frequency estimates - what are the chances it happens again?

Question 2

Damage to orbitofrontal cortex = ?

Answer 2

problems with decision-making!
* don’t respond to choices with emotion

Question 3

Availability heuristic

Answer 3

relying on availabilty as a substitute for frequency
* ease with which examples come to mind
* a form of attribute substitution

ex. people over-estimate # of shark attacks

Question 4

Representiveness heuristic

Answer 4

relying on resemblence instead of probability

ex. assume someone dressed strangely is a poet rather than an accountant

Question 5

Range of availability effects

Hint: think of examples

Answer 5

people tend to overestimate the frequency of rare events
* ex. doctors overestimate the likelihood of rare diseases (“think horses, not zebras”)

other ex. not showering during a thunderstorm

Question 6

Gambler’s fallacy

Answer 6

predicting a random event based on previous random events

ex. coin toss

Question 7

Affect heuristic

Answer 7

relying upon positive/negative emotions to quickly solve a problem

ex. debating whether to use roller skates or a bike

Question 8

Anchoring effect

Answer 8

tendency to rely on an initial piece of info when making judgements

ex. fake “deals” (hiked up price “marked down” to MSRP)

Question 9

Covariation

Answer 9

X & Y “covary” if the presence of X can be preducted by the presence of Y

Question 10

Confirmation bias

Answer 10

tendency to be more alert to evidence that confirms one’s beliefs than those that challenge them

Question 11

Base-rate info

Answer 11

info about how frequently something generally occurs

Question 12

Diagnostic info

Answer 12

Does an individual case belong to a category?

Question 13

Base rate fallacy

Answer 13

when people underemphasize/ignore the base rates of an event to favor specific, individualizing info

ex. engineer and lawyer question

Question 14

Type 1 thinking

Answer 14

fast & automatic thinking
* reliance on heuristics (vibes)

time pressure

Question 15

Type 2 thinking

Answer 15

slower, effortful thinking
* more likely to be correct
* more detailed

use for important decisions -> big consequences

Question 16

Induction

Answer 16

process through which you forecast about new cases based on observed cases

Question 17

Deduction

Answer 17

process through which you start with “givens” & ask what follows from these premises

Question 18

Belief preserverence

Answer 18

phenomenon in which an individual maintains their belief/attitude even when faced with conflicting evidence/new data

Question 19

Confirmation bias vs. belief preserverence

Answer 19

bias: not bothering to seek out contradicting info
preserverence: actively rejecting contradicting info

Question 20

Categorical syllogisms

Answer 20

logical arguments containing 2 premises & a conclusion

ex. All X are Y. Some A are X. Therefore, some A are Y.

Question 21

Belief bias

Answer 21

if a syllogism’s conclusion happens to be something people believe to be true anyhow, they’re likely to judge the conclusion as flowing logically from the premises
* if the conclusion happens to be something they believe to be false, they’re likely to reject the conclusion as invalid

Question 22

Conditional statements

Answer 22

“If X, then Y.”

ex. Wason’s 4-card tasks

Question 23

Utility maximization

Answer 23

choosing the option with the greatest expected value
* balance of costs & benefits

problems: sometimes we have too many options

Question 24

Framing effect

Answer 24

people react differently to something depending on the framing (positive or negative)

ex. 80% lean beef vs. 20% fat beef

From 3900! Avoid losses, guarantee gains

Question 25

Reason-based choice

Answer 25

make decisions that we feel good about b/c we feel they’re reasonable & justified

Question 26

Affective forecasting

Answer 26

your predictions about your own future emotions

ex. “How would you feel after breaking up with your partner?”

People’s predictions are often inaccurate in terms of duration