CHP. 12 - Judgement & Reasoning Flashcards
Judgement
process through which people draw conclusions from the evidence they encounter
starts with frequency estimates - what are the chances it happens again?
Damage to orbitofrontal cortex = ?
problems with decision-making!
* don’t respond to choices with emotion
Availability heuristic
relying on availabilty as a substitute for frequency
* ease with which examples come to mind
* a form of attribute substitution
ex. people over-estimate # of shark attacks
Representiveness heuristic
relying on resemblence instead of probability
ex. assume someone dressed strangely is a poet rather than an accountant
Range of availability effects
Hint: think of examples
people tend to overestimate the frequency of rare events
* ex. doctors overestimate the likelihood of rare diseases (“think horses, not zebras”)
other ex. not showering during a thunderstorm
Gambler’s fallacy
predicting a random event based on previous random events
ex. coin toss
Affect heuristic
relying upon positive/negative emotions to quickly solve a problem
ex. debating whether to use roller skates or a bike
Anchoring effect
tendency to rely on an initial piece of info when making judgements
ex. fake “deals” (hiked up price “marked down” to MSRP)
Covariation
X & Y “covary” if the presence of X can be preducted by the presence of Y
Confirmation bias
tendency to be more alert to evidence that confirms one’s beliefs than those that challenge them
Base-rate info
info about how frequently something generally occurs
Diagnostic info
Does an individual case belong to a category?
Base rate fallacy
when people underemphasize/ignore the base rates of an event to favor specific, individualizing info
ex. engineer and lawyer question
Type 1 thinking
fast & automatic thinking
* reliance on heuristics (vibes)
time pressure
Type 2 thinking
slower, effortful thinking
* more likely to be correct
* more detailed
use for important decisions -> big consequences
Induction
process through which you forecast about new cases based on observed cases
Deduction
process through which you start with “givens” & ask what follows from these premises
Belief preserverence
phenomenon in which an individual maintains their belief/attitude even when faced with conflicting evidence/new data
Confirmation bias vs. belief preserverence
bias: not bothering to seek out contradicting info
preserverence: actively rejecting contradicting info
Categorical syllogisms
logical arguments containing 2 premises & a conclusion
ex. All X are Y. Some A are X. Therefore, some A are Y.
Belief bias
if a syllogism’s conclusion happens to be something people believe to be true anyhow, they’re likely to judge the conclusion as flowing logically from the premises
* if the conclusion happens to be something they believe to be false, they’re likely to reject the conclusion as invalid
Conditional statements
“If X, then Y.”
ex. Wason’s 4-card tasks
Utility maximization
choosing the option with the greatest expected value
* balance of costs & benefits
problems: sometimes we have too many options
Framing effect
people react differently to something depending on the framing (positive or negative)
ex. 80% lean beef vs. 20% fat beef
From 3900! Avoid losses, guarantee gains
Reason-based choice
make decisions that we feel good about b/c we feel they’re reasonable & justified
Affective forecasting
your predictions about your own future emotions
ex. “How would you feel after breaking up with your partner?”
People’s predictions are often inaccurate in terms of duration
