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PDG 2017 E-8-2s > Chapter 23 > Flashcards

Chapter 23 Flashcards

1
Q

What is cognitive bias

A

The influence of factors that shape how we interpret informant, weigh its relevance and ultimately decide upon a course of action or inaction

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2
Q

Cognitive bias plays a role in the ___- thinking and decisions making process

A

Critical

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3
Q

What term do psychologists use to describe the actual operating state of the human mind

A

Bounded rationality

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4
Q

Cognitive bias in the decision making process results in eight common traps. Four of them are 1. overconfidence bias, 2. sunk cost effect, 3. availability bias, 4. confirmation bias, name the other four

A

Anchoring bias
Illusory bias
Hindsight bias
Egocentrism

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5
Q

In terms of cognitive bias, what does sunk cost effect mean

A

Escalating the commitment to a course of action simply because of the cost of resource already invested, despite poorer performance

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6
Q

In terms of cognitive bias, what does availability bias mean

A

Placing too much emphasis on information already available versus information needed

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7
Q

Which cognitive bias is most prevalent

A

Confirmation bias

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8
Q

Which cognitive bias allows an initial reference point to distort estimates, even when the initial reference point is completely arbitrary

A

Anchoring bias

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9
Q

Which cognitive bias tends to jump to conclusions about the relationship between two variable when no correlation exists

A

Illusionary bias

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10
Q

What is hindsight bias

A

the tendency to judge past events as easily predictable when they weren’t foreseeable

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11
Q

Which cognitive bias occurs when we attribute e more credit to ourselves for the group or collaborative outcome than an outside unbiased party would

A

Egocentrism

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12
Q

As decision makers, what three techniques may airmen use to counter cognitive biases

A

After action reviews
Seeking unbiased outside expert input
Creating a decision environment that encourages candid dialogue and vigorous debate

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13
Q

Which of the three techniques AMN use to counter cognitive biases is thought to be the most effective method

A

Creating a decision environment that encourages candid dialogue and vigorous debate

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14
Q

How do mental frameworks and shortcut help simplify our understanding of a complex world

A

They help us process information quickly and efficiently

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15
Q

Mental frameworks contribute to cognitive bias T/F

A

True

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16
Q

Mental frameworks consist of our ___ about how things are related and work

A

Assumptions

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17
Q

How we frame a problem influences the decision we make. When is this effect particularly noticeable

A

When we frame a challenge as either a risk or an opportunity

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18
Q

What is the Prospect theory

A

The belief that framing a situation as a potential gain causes decision makers to act differently than framing the same situation as a potential loss

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19
Q

According to the Prospect theory, are people willing to take greater risks when faced with potential losses or when faced with potential gains

A

When faced with potential loses

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20
Q

At the org level, how are threats to our comfortable framework of assumptions often met

A

With rigid resistance

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21
Q

At the organizational level, how are changes seen as opportunities usually met

A

With flexible and adaptable approaches

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22
Q

When confronting change at the Org level, AMN are subject to their initial frameworks. How do those frameworks limit them

A

They Limit the information taken in, the willingness to assess information fairly and without bias, and ultimately restrict the solution sets that are created

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23
Q

What is the drawback when decision makers choose a course of actin based on intuition alone

A

It often means a whole series of alternatives are not considered or objectively analyzed

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24
Q

In decision making, what is intuition based upon

A

Previous experience and matching patterns from those experiences to cues picked up in the current environment

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25
Q

For decision makers intuition is both a powerful guide and a potential decision trap T/F

A

True

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26
Q

In challenging or ambiguous situations why is the intuition of even highly experience professionals risky

A

The complexity involved can obscure pattern recognitions that are relied on with intuition. As a result even eeriness AMN can mistakenly apply incorrect or outdated models that result in poorer decision making

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27
Q

Why should AMN especially leaders within an org hold back personal opinions and avoid imposing mental frames on themselves and their team

A

To create an environment where critical thinking can be exercised. This will widen the range of advice and alternatives that will be offered

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28
Q

There is a natural tendency to view change as threating T/F

A

True

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29
Q

Name on way Amn in a position of responsibility can avoid the human tendency to continue a course of action due to sunk costs

A

By properly using a commination of intuitive judgment and formal analysis

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30
Q

Formal ____ can check intuition and ensure you challenge your intuitive judgment rather than confirm it

A

Analysis

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31
Q

Which is more critical: recognizing the value of intuition or guarding against a lack of analysis in the decision making process

A

Both are equally critical

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32
Q

Intuition can be replace with rules and procedures T/F

A

False

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33
Q

When communication intuitive decision, seeing feedback and conveying intent, what five step process should you sue to address decision teams

A

Step 1 - Hers what I think we face
Step 2 - Here’s what I think we should do
Step 3 - Hers why
Step 4 - Here’s what we should keep our eye on
Step 5 - Now talk to me

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34
Q

In critical thinking when does reasoning by analogy occur

A

When we assess a situation and match it to similar experiences we have encountered assuming that they are alike

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35
Q

At the conscious level, AMN can deliberately us analogies to frame a decision making process. What purpose does this serve

A

It saves time and provides clues about possible courses of action and implications

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36
Q

at an unconscious level, analogies play a large role in intuition T/F

A

True

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37
Q

What critical thinking trap is inherent in the use of analogies

A

They can lead us to focus on similarities between events and downplay important differences

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38
Q

To avoid the critical thinking trap inherent when using analogies, what techniques can help you clearly separate fact from assumption

A

Make to lists- one describing similarities and the others describing differences
Write down and clearly define what you know, what is unknown and what you presume about the situation you are analyzing

39
Q

What action is at the heart of how we apply the baits of mind necessary for good critical thought

A

The act of questioning our assumptions in any decision process

40
Q

Conventional wisdom holds that groups make better decisions than individuals. Yet may groups fail to make good decisions why?

A

Failure to merge diverse ideas and recognize potential synergies. As a result they fail to capitalize on the teams divers talents

41
Q

To consciously structure the groups decision making process to encourage critical thinking, what four things must leaders decide

A

Who should be involved in the decision process
In what sort of environment the decision takes place
How the participants will communicate
How the leader will control the decisions process

42
Q

Name several common reason why leaders often fail to decide how to decide when faced with group decisions

A

Bias, lack of time, framing, personnel shortages and outside pressures

43
Q

When it comes to critical thinking, why do some argue that groups are more intelligent than individual experts

A

Because the aggregation of their judgment leads to a better answer, even though they are not a group of experts

44
Q

To be effective decision makers, groups of non experts must be divers and represent many different disciplines, perspective and areas of expertise. What else is required

A

They must be decentralized, able to effectively aggregate all the individual judgments and most importantly they must contain members who are independent

45
Q

Because AMN share a heritage and commitment to teamwork, what trap must they guard against to ensure critical thinking in the group environment

A

The trap of ignoring information in an effort to find common ground

46
Q

With group decisions, why is it important not to over filter the data as it moves up the decision chain

A

It can prevent decision makers from having access to the nuances of discussions that occur during the decision process

47
Q

When forming a decision making team, it is important to remember that individuals must be able to sway others in the crowd and that the interdependence and hierarchy of group members can neutralize the benefits of group decision. Name three more things you should be aware of

A

Pressure to conform and fractionalization of groups into subgroups can prevent honest analysis
Letting individuals dominate discussions can inhibit less aggressive member s of the group
Make sure all group members feel personally accountable for the groups outcome

48
Q

What well known decision trap is a major reason groups make flawed decisions

A

Groupthink

49
Q

When does groupthink occur

A

When tremendous pressures within the team for conformity and a desire for unanimity drive decision making at the expense of true critical thinking

50
Q

When candid dialogue between team members and real assessment of options is missing from group decision making, where do groups tend to misspend most of their time

A

Tweaking proposed solutions rather than examining evidence and the assumptions necessary to create new options

51
Q

Groupthink is affected by the ___ of the group, reporting and supervisory chains, and the permanent versus long term natures of the group involved

A

Homogeneity

52
Q

Within groups, especially long standing groups, individuals often self sensor in an effort to avoid being ostracized and marginalized. What fallacy develops with the team when this occurs

A

Each member erroneously believes the other team member unanimously support a decision or course of action, which makes it harder to present dissenting options

53
Q

Amn must be aware of what six symptoms of groupthink

A

Feels it is invulnerable and cannot fail
Has an inherent belief that they are better than their rivals
Reutilizes disconfirming data and warning signs away
Feels it is unanimous in its support for particular views
Majority pressures dissenting views
Members self sensor rather than challenge the majority perspective

54
Q

For some group decisions, ____ consultation may be the only way to avoid groupthink

A

Outside

55
Q

Name five ways AMN can minimize structural barriers to candid dialogue and reduce groupthink tendencies within their organization

A

Reduce structural complexity and information filtering
Define roles within the decision making teams
Reduce homogeneity of the teams composition
Reduce status differences and rating chain conflicts
Invite disagreement during the analysis process

56
Q

Disagreement in any decision process stimulates inquiry and analysis. Where lies the challenge

A

To create constructive conflict while retaining the teamwork and relationships necessary for future decision events

57
Q

What does cognitive conflict focus on in any decision making debate

A

The issues and ideas at hand

58
Q

What does affective conflict focus on in any decision making debate

A

Emotional and personal outburst

59
Q

Which type of conflict in a decisions making debate is constructive; Cognitive or affective

A

Cognitive

60
Q

Why is stimulating cognitive conflict a key aspect of managing the decision process

A

To advocate positions and analysis

61
Q

Name several ways leaders can help set the example to ensure constructive debate while minimizing conflict

A

Identify and articulate the mental models they apply
Encourage others to challenge these models
Avoid prematurely selecting courses of action before the debate is finished
Encourage others to make mistakes

62
Q

Name two suggested techniques that can encourage constructive debate and conflict

A

Assign members to act as adversaries

Advocate multiple scenarios to address the problem

63
Q

To encourage constructive debate and conflict, dissenters should be assigned to act as Devils advocates T/F

A

True

64
Q

The inability to decide epilogues many leaders and organizations. This indecision manifests as one of what three harmful org cultures

A

Culture of No
Culture of Yes
Culture of maybe

65
Q

In which Org Culture do lone dissenters effectively block organizational goals

A

The culture of No

66
Q

What do decision meetings focus on in the Org culture of No

A

They focus on dissecting proposals instead of true debate and analysis

67
Q

How are dissenters used in the organization culture of no

A

In a culture of no, dissenters try to tear down or block proposals and ideas versus critiquing a proposal with the intent of strengthening it

68
Q

In which Org culture do dissenters tend to stay silent, showing tactile endorsement of the proposal without the benefit of analysis and debate

A

The culture of yes

69
Q

The Org culture of yes develops when leadership devalues critical analysis. how can leaders overcome this cultural tendency

A

By creating constructive conflict within the decision process to surface an analyze concerns and alternative interpretations of evidence

70
Q

The Org culture of maybe often leads to analysis paralysis. What does this mean

A

Decision makers constantly delay action because they think more information and analysis will clarify their choice

71
Q

The culture of maybe tends to develop in orgs that face highly ambiguous situations, or in orgs where competing sections/leaders practice conflict avoidance as opposed to open analysis and debate. What should leaders do in this situation

A

Balance the benefit of gaining more information against the diminishing returns they provide. Intuitive judgment should serve as a cutoff for unnecessary delay

72
Q

When there is an inability to make decisions within an org, why should leaders avoid using shortcuts such as analogies, creating rules of thumb, copying competitors actions

A

To encourage using critical thinking skills in the decision process

73
Q

The process by which an Org decision is made significantly influences implementation and follow through of the solution T/F

A

True

74
Q

What is the key aspect to the outcome of critical Org decision

A

consensus among the team responsible for its enactment

75
Q

In an Orgs decision making process, does consensus mean unanimity

A

No

76
Q

Procedural ____ provides support to the Orgs decision makers

A

Fairness

77
Q

How do fair processes benefit the Org decision making process

A

build consensus
Aid implementation
Demonstrate genuine consideration of alternatives
Allow AMN to rally around the decision with confidence

78
Q

What six thing scan leaders to create an org culture of procedural legitimacy

A

Provide a process road map at the beginning of the process
Reinforce and demonstrate an open mindset
Engage in active listening and make sure others do too
Separate advocacy from analysis
Explain the decision rationale once made
Express appreciation for participation and alternate inputs

79
Q

Name two perspectives on decision making failure in the critical thinking process

A

Normal accident theory

Normalized deviance

80
Q

Which perspective on decision making failure rests upon the assumption that decision failures are unavoidable in any highly complex, high risk org structure

A

Normal accident

81
Q

Why are high risk systems that are intercity complex and tightly coupled vulnerable to even small mistakes

A

Because they often go unrecognized or uncorrected an increasingly skew outcomes as they work their way trough the system

82
Q

In Org decision making, which are harder to recognize: Linear or nonlinear processes

A

Nonlinear

83
Q

Why does leadership stress adherence to standard operating procedures and apply the habits of critical thinking before deviating from normal operations

A

To anticipate the impact that even minor deviations from the procedure or instructions can have

84
Q

What does normalizing deviance mean with regard to critical thinking and org culture

A

The gradual acceptance of unexpected events and risk as a normal part of the operating environment. Once viewed as a normal occurrence, we cease to identify causes and find solution, which leads to gradual acceptance of lower standards of performance

85
Q

What classic example does chapter 23 use to explain how the reoccurrence of seemingly minor but unpredictable anomalies in a system lead to catastrophic failure

A

The challenger space shuttle disaster, where members of the Org cam to accept the erosion of O rings outside acceptable tolerances, despite deviation from their engineering standards

86
Q

Normalization of deviance produces shortcuts in the way orgs act. These shortcuts become normal procedures and deviances are no longer even noticed. how can AMN guarded against this practice

A

Question the way business is done and dig into any failure to meet the standards that were set for performance

87
Q

when dealing with normal accidents and normalizing deviances, what four things must AMN do to help ensure good decision making

A

Be aware of the type of Org they operate within
Understand it complex interactions
Consciously identify the close calls and deviances from normal operations
Ensure deviations from standards are analyzed as part of the decision making process to understand how to improve programs and implement new decision

88
Q

Practical drift is similar to normalizing deviance. When does practical drift occur

A

When sub unit leaders at all levels in large Orgs decide to maximize efficiency be establishing localized rules and procedures that comply with the overall intent of the Org

89
Q

Within an Org culture, practical drift is always problematic T/F

A

False

90
Q

How can leaders control practical drift within their Orgs

A

Using their awareness of Org goals and standards to monitor practical drift in their areas of responsibility
Recognizing disciplined initiative, while maintaining standards consistent with outside expectations

91
Q

Ambiguous threats do not trigger Org responses. What may happen when critical thinking is not applied to these types of threats

A

The recovery window between the emergence of the threat and its occurrence as a catastrophic failure may narrow

92
Q

How can AMN temper practical drift and create a culture where critical thinking is applied to ambiguous threats

A

Developing processes for identifying and analyzing small problems and failures
Treating them as potential indicators of larger problems

93
Q

What steps should leaders take to minimize the problems associated with practical drift

A

Empower frontline troops and workers
Flatten hierarchies to reduce information filter
Create and encourage transparency in Org structures and systems
Avoid Band aid approaches to small problems
Create a climate of candid dialogue
Monitor seams where information is handed off between units and orgs
Conduct careful after action reviews focused on process improvement

PDG 2017 E-8-2s (19 decks)

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