CHAPTER 13 JUDGMENTS, DECISIONS, REASONING Flashcards
define judgement
making a decision or coming to a conclusion
define reasoning
the process of drawing conclusions
define a decision
the process of choosing between alternatives
what is inductive reasoning?
the process of drawing general conclusions based on specific observations and evidence
conclusions drawn from using inductive reasoning are _____ but not ____ true
probably true; definitely
what kind of arguments result in conclusions that are more likely to be true?
strong
what kind of arguments result in conclusions that are less likely to be true?
weak
what are the factors that contribute to the strength of an argument in inductive reasoning? (3)
- representation of observations
- number of observations
- quality of evidence
describe the representation of observations
how well an observation about a particular category represents all the members of the category
describe the number of observations
the greater the number of the same observation supports the argument
describe the quality of evidence
stronger evidence results in stronger conclusions
how is inductive reasoning used?
when making a prediction about what will happen based on our observations about what has happened
can inductive reasoning be implicit or explicit?
implicit
what are heurisitcs?
a rule of thumb that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem but are not foolproof
how do heuristics work?
provides us with shortcuts to help generalize from specific experiences to broader judgements/conclusions
what are the 2 kinds of heuristics?
availability heuristics
representativeness heuristics
what are availability heuristics?
states that events that come to mind more easily are judged as being more probable than those who are less easily recalled
why can availability heuristics mislead one to the wrong conclusions?
less frequently occurring events can stand out in memory
what are illusory correlations?
when a relationship between 2 events appears to exist but in reality there is not one or it is weak
why do illusory correlations occur?
people often associate things to be related like superstition
what are stereotypes?
an oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negative
what is representativeness heuristic?
states that the likelihood of something being apart of a larger category depends on how well it resembles the properties of that category
what are base rates?
the relative proportion of different classes in the population
who tested the judging occupations question “is it more likely that Robert is a librarian or a farmer?”
Amos Tverky and Daniel Kahneman