CHAPTER 13 JUDGMENTS, DECISIONS, REASONING Flashcards
define judgement
making a decision or coming to a conclusion
define reasoning
the process of drawing conclusions
define a decision
the process of choosing between alternatives
what is inductive reasoning?
the process of drawing general conclusions based on specific observations and evidence
conclusions drawn from using inductive reasoning are _____ but not ____ true
probably true; definitely
what kind of arguments result in conclusions that are more likely to be true?
strong
what kind of arguments result in conclusions that are less likely to be true?
weak
what are the factors that contribute to the strength of an argument in inductive reasoning? (3)
- representation of observations
- number of observations
- quality of evidence
describe the representation of observations
how well an observation about a particular category represents all the members of the category
describe the number of observations
the greater the number of the same observation supports the argument
describe the quality of evidence
stronger evidence results in stronger conclusions
how is inductive reasoning used?
when making a prediction about what will happen based on our observations about what has happened
can inductive reasoning be implicit or explicit?
implicit
what are heurisitcs?
a rule of thumb that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem but are not foolproof
how do heuristics work?
provides us with shortcuts to help generalize from specific experiences to broader judgements/conclusions
what are the 2 kinds of heuristics?
availability heuristics
representativeness heuristics
what are availability heuristics?
states that events that come to mind more easily are judged as being more probable than those who are less easily recalled
why can availability heuristics mislead one to the wrong conclusions?
less frequently occurring events can stand out in memory
what are illusory correlations?
when a relationship between 2 events appears to exist but in reality there is not one or it is weak
why do illusory correlations occur?
people often associate things to be related like superstition
what are stereotypes?
an oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negative
what is representativeness heuristic?
states that the likelihood of something being apart of a larger category depends on how well it resembles the properties of that category
what are base rates?
the relative proportion of different classes in the population
who tested the judging occupations question “is it more likely that Robert is a librarian or a farmer?”
Amos Tverky and Daniel Kahneman
why did people often classify Robert to be a librarian?
his description fit the category properties and they did not have access to base rates of farmers and librarians in the population
what is the conjunction rule?
states the probability of a conjunction of 2 events cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents
what is the law of large numbers?
states that the larger the number of individuals drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of an entire population
who demonstrated the effects of myside bias?
Charles Lord
what is myside bias?
when people evaluate evidence in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes
describe Charles Lord’s experiement
used a questionnaire to identify those who were in favor of capital punishment and those who aren’t
what could Charles Lord conclude about myside bias?
peoples prior beliefs may have caused them to attend to information that corresponded with their beliefs and disregard to information that did not
myside bias is a type of what other bias?
conformation bias
what is conformation bias?
when people look for information that conforms to their hypothesis and ignore the information that refutes it
why is conformation bias known to be more broader than myside bias?
it holds for any situation in which information is favored that confirms a hypothesis
who demonstrated how confirmation bias can affect how people approach problem solving
Peter Watson
describe Peter Watson’s confirmation bias experiement
- gave participants sets of 3 numbers that conform to a simple rule
- participants had to try and figure out the rule by writing down the sets of numbers together
what did Watson observe in his confirmation bias experiment? what was the actual rule
the most common initial hypothesis was numbers increasing in intervals of 2
the actual rule: 3 numbers that increase in order of magnitude
what did Watson conclude in his confirmation bias experiment?
people were only seeking evidence that confirmed their hypothesis
confirmation bias serves as a pair of blinders
what does it mean to use confirmation bias a pair of blinders?
seeing the world according to rules we think are correct and we do not part from this view because we only seek out evidence that confirms our rule
who assessed high school students’ ability to evaluate the information found online?
Sam Wineburg
what did Wineburg conclude from his experiment?
people are quick to believe information they read online or in the news because they may not have access to the resources that contain the needed information
who assessed that people sometimes trust information that they were told was wrong
Nyhan and Riefler
describe Nyhan and Riefler’s experiement
- used the misperception that Iraq was hiding weapons of mass destruction
- complete and semi liberals were used and were provided with a mock story about the weapons
- complete liberals were told there were no weapons ever found
what did Nyhan and Reifler observe?
the group informed that no weapons were found, disagreed that Iraq had weapons on hand but were able to hide them
what is the backfire effect?
when an individual’s support for a particular viewpoint could actually become stronger when faced with corrective facts opposing their viewpoint
