CHAPTER 13 JUDGMENTS, DECISIONS, REASONING Flashcards
define judgement
making a decision or coming to a conclusion
define reasoning
the process of drawing conclusions
define a decision
the process of choosing between alternatives
what is inductive reasoning?
the process of drawing general conclusions based on specific observations and evidence
conclusions drawn from using inductive reasoning are _____ but not ____ true
probably true; definitely
what kind of arguments result in conclusions that are more likely to be true?
strong
what kind of arguments result in conclusions that are less likely to be true?
weak
what are the factors that contribute to the strength of an argument in inductive reasoning? (3)
- representation of observations
- number of observations
- quality of evidence
describe the representation of observations
how well an observation about a particular category represents all the members of the category
describe the number of observations
the greater the number of the same observation supports the argument
describe the quality of evidence
stronger evidence results in stronger conclusions
how is inductive reasoning used?
when making a prediction about what will happen based on our observations about what has happened
can inductive reasoning be implicit or explicit?
implicit
what are heurisitcs?
a rule of thumb that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem but are not foolproof
how do heuristics work?
provides us with shortcuts to help generalize from specific experiences to broader judgements/conclusions
what are the 2 kinds of heuristics?
availability heuristics
representativeness heuristics
what are availability heuristics?
states that events that come to mind more easily are judged as being more probable than those who are less easily recalled
why can availability heuristics mislead one to the wrong conclusions?
less frequently occurring events can stand out in memory
what are illusory correlations?
when a relationship between 2 events appears to exist but in reality there is not one or it is weak
why do illusory correlations occur?
people often associate things to be related like superstition
what are stereotypes?
an oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negative
what is representativeness heuristic?
states that the likelihood of something being apart of a larger category depends on how well it resembles the properties of that category
what are base rates?
the relative proportion of different classes in the population
who tested the judging occupations question “is it more likely that Robert is a librarian or a farmer?”
Amos Tverky and Daniel Kahneman
why did people often classify Robert to be a librarian?
his description fit the category properties and they did not have access to base rates of farmers and librarians in the population
what is the conjunction rule?
states the probability of a conjunction of 2 events cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents
what is the law of large numbers?
states that the larger the number of individuals drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of an entire population
who demonstrated the effects of myside bias?
Charles Lord
what is myside bias?
when people evaluate evidence in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes
describe Charles Lord’s experiement
used a questionnaire to identify those who were in favor of capital punishment and those who aren’t
what could Charles Lord conclude about myside bias?
peoples prior beliefs may have caused them to attend to information that corresponded with their beliefs and disregard to information that did not
myside bias is a type of what other bias?
conformation bias
what is conformation bias?
when people look for information that conforms to their hypothesis and ignore the information that refutes it
why is conformation bias known to be more broader than myside bias?
it holds for any situation in which information is favored that confirms a hypothesis
who demonstrated how confirmation bias can affect how people approach problem solving
Peter Watson
describe Peter Watson’s confirmation bias experiement
- gave participants sets of 3 numbers that conform to a simple rule
- participants had to try and figure out the rule by writing down the sets of numbers together
what did Watson observe in his confirmation bias experiment? what was the actual rule
the most common initial hypothesis was numbers increasing in intervals of 2
the actual rule: 3 numbers that increase in order of magnitude
what did Watson conclude in his confirmation bias experiment?
people were only seeking evidence that confirmed their hypothesis
confirmation bias serves as a pair of blinders
what does it mean to use confirmation bias a pair of blinders?
seeing the world according to rules we think are correct and we do not part from this view because we only seek out evidence that confirms our rule
who assessed high school students’ ability to evaluate the information found online?
Sam Wineburg
what did Wineburg conclude from his experiment?
people are quick to believe information they read online or in the news because they may not have access to the resources that contain the needed information
who assessed that people sometimes trust information that they were told was wrong
Nyhan and Riefler
describe Nyhan and Riefler’s experiement
- used the misperception that Iraq was hiding weapons of mass destruction
- complete and semi liberals were used and were provided with a mock story about the weapons
- complete liberals were told there were no weapons ever found
what did Nyhan and Reifler observe?
the group informed that no weapons were found, disagreed that Iraq had weapons on hand but were able to hide them
what is the backfire effect?
when an individual’s support for a particular viewpoint could actually become stronger when faced with corrective facts opposing their viewpoint
what is deductive reasoning?
determining whether a conclusion logically follows from statements
how does deductive reasoning work?
starts with broad principles to male logical predictions about specific cases
who is the father of deductive reasoning and what did they introduce?
Aristotle; syllogism
what is syllogism?
2 broad statements/premises that are followed by a 3rd statement known as the conclusion
what is categorial syllogism?
premises and conclusion statements that begin with all, no, or some
what is categorial syllogism used for?
considering the difference between validity and truth in syllogisms
what is validity in terms of syllogisms?
when the form of the syllogism indicates that its conclusion follows logically from its 2 premises
what is special about validity in syllogisms?
does not focus on having a true conclusion
what is belief bias?
the tendency to think a syllogism is valid if the conclusion is believable
what is the mental model approach?
illustrates the mental model proposed by Philip Johnson-Laird
what is the mental model?
a specific situation represented in a person’s mind that can be used to help determine the validity of a syllogism in deductive reasoning
how does the mental model work?
- people create a model of the situation for a reasoning problem
- generates a tentative conclusion based on the model and looks for exceptions that might falsify the model
- finding 0 exceptions with a matching model to the conclusion means it is valid
what is the basic principle of the mental model?
a conclusion is only valid if it cannot be refuted by any model of the premises
what do critics argue when evaluating syllogisms?
people use a variety of different strategies in reasoning and that some people may just be better at solving them
what is conditional syllogism?
having 2 premises + conclusion but the 1st premise has an if, then format
what is modus ponens?
Latin for: the way that affirms by affirming
what is modus tollens?
Latin for: the way that denies by denying
what is the idea behind conditional reasoning?
people are better at judging the validity of syllogisms when real-world examples are substituted for abstract symbols
what is the Wason Four-Card problem?
each card has a letter on one side and a number on the other and the task is to indicate which cards you would need to turn over to test a rule
what was the rule used in the Wason Four-Card Problem?
if there is a vowel on one side of the card, then there is an even number on the other side
what is the idea behind the task for the Wason Four-Card problem?
involves looking for an example that does not work when testing any rule
what is the falsification principle?
to test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule
when does performance in testing a rule improve?
when the problem is stated in real-world terms
who used the idea of Wason Four-Card Problem but modified to for beer and drinking age?
Griggs and Cox
who suggested that people think in terms of schemas?
Patricia Cheng and Keith Holyoak
what are schemas?
knowledge about rules that govern people’s thoughts and actions
what is a permission schema?
states that if a person satisfies a specific condition, then they get to carry out an action
apply permission schemas to Griggs and Cox’s beer and age experiment
if someone is of the age 19, they can drink beer legally
what is the basic property of decision making?
decisions involve both benefits and costs
what is the expected utility theory?
if people have all the relevant information, they will make a decision that results in the maximum expected utility
what is an utility?
refers to the outcomes that achieve a person’s goal
what is an economist’s main focus in terms of decision making?
monetary value/payoff
what are expected emotions?
emotions that people predict they will feel for a particular outcome
what is risk aversion
the tendency to avoid taking risks
what influences risk aversion?
the tendency to predict that a particular loss will have a greater impact than a gain of the same size
what are identical emotions?
emotions that are not caused by having to decide something
what impacts an identical emotion?
a person’s general disposition - an event that occurred or the general environment
what are 2 context effects of decision making?
the addition of alternatives
being faced with a more difficult decision leading to no decision at all
within organ donation, what is an opt-in procedure?
requires someone actually taking action in the decision they made
within organ donation, what is an opt-out procedure?
everyone is a potential organ donor unless they request not to be
what is status quo bias?
the tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision
who showed forensic psychologists/psychiatrists a case of a mental patient and asked them to judge if the patient would commit an act of violence within 6 months of being released?
Paul Slovic
what was the key variable in Slovic’s mental case experiment
the nature of the statement that presented information about previous cases
what were the 2 kinds of statements that Slovic used?
- told them that 20/100 patients are estimated to commit an act of violence
- told them that those similar have a 20% chance of committing an act of violence
how did the psychologists/psychiatrists judge?
20/100 statement: 41% refused discharge
20% chance: 21% refused discharge
what is Slovic propose the reason was for his results?
the 20/100 statement lead to picturing 20 people being beaten and the 20% statement is a more abstract indication of a small chance
what is the framing effect?
decisions are influenced by how the choices are framed
Tvsersky and Kahneman said that in general when a choice is framed in terms of gains people use the ______ strategy
risk aversion
Tvsersky and Kahneman said that in general when a choice is framed in terms of losses people use the ______ strategy
risk-taking
what is neuroeconomics?
studies how brain activation is related to decisions that involve potential gains or losses
what 3 subjects are combined to form neuroeconomics?
psychology, neuroscience, economics
how does neuroeconomic research typically work?
identifies brain areas activated when people make decisions while playing economic games
what often influences decisions while playing these games?
emotions and the emotions associated with the specific activity in the specific areas in the brain
who measured people’s brain activity when playing the game ultimatum?
Alan Sanfey
what is the ultimatum game?
2 people: a proposer and a responder
proposer makes an offer about money splitting and responder decided if they/ll take the deal
what did Sanfey observe about the fair and unfair offers?
all responders accept the fair
most responders accept the semi-fair offer
half or more responders reject the unfair offers
what did Sanfey observe in his fMRI scans?
the right anterior insula was 3x more activated when a responder rejected an offer
where is the right anterior insula?
between the parietal and temporal lobes
what did Sanfey conclude about the right anterior insula?
it is the part of the brain that is associated with negative emotional states
what second structure was observed in Sanfey’s fMRI scans?
the prefrontal cortex
describe how the prefrontal cortex was affected?
activation was the same for rejection and acceptance of offers
what was the conclusion about the prefrontal cortex?
deals with the cognitive demands of the task by seeing which choice is better
might regulate and implement the best decision according to goals
who investigated what would happen when the prefrontal cortex would be deactivated while playing ultimatum?
Knoch
what did Knoch use to deactivate the prefrontal cortex?
transcranial magnetic stimulation
what did Knoch observe when deactivating the prefrontal cortex?
responders still rated offers as unfair but still accepted them
what is Knoch conclude about the prefrontal cortex’s role in decision making?
implements the cognitive decision to reject unfair/unpleasant offers
what is the dual systems approach?
the idea that there are 2 mental systems
Danieal Kahneman’s system 1 and system 2 involve what kind of processing, in each?
1: intuitive, fast, unconscious, automatic
2. reflective, slow, conscious, controlled
what were Keith Stanovitch and Richard West’s versions of Daniel Kahneman’s system 1 and system 2?
type 1 and type 2 processing
