Chapter 12 Flashcards
Judgment and Reasoning
Frequency Estimate
Assessment of how often various events have occurred in the past.
Attribute Substitution
Strategy in which you rely on easily assessed information as a proxy for the information you really need.
Availability Heuristic
Where a person needs to judge the frequency of a certain type of object or the likelihood of a certain type of event.
Representativeness Heuristic
Strategy used in making judgments about categories. Where the prototype will resemble each instance.
Heuristic
Efficient strategy that usually lead to the right answer.
Covariation
Relationship between two variables such that the presence of one variable can be predicted from the presence of the other.
Confirmation Bias
Tendency to be more responsive to evidence that confirms your beliefs rather than to evidence that might challenge your beliefs.
Base-Rate Information
Information about how frequently something occurs in general.
Dual-Process
Model of thinking that claims people have two distinct means of making judgments (Type 1 and Type 2).
Type 1
Judgment and reasoning strategy that is fast and effortless, but prone to error.
Type 2
Judgment and reasoning strategy that is slower and requires more effort than Type 1, but is less prone to error.
Induction
Process through which you make forecasts about new cases, based on the cases you’ve observed so far.
Deduction
Process in which you start with claims or assertions that you count as given and then ask what follows from these premises.
Belief Perseverance
Tendency to continue endorsing some assertion or claim, even when the clearly available evidence completely undermines that claim.
Categorical Syllogisms
Type of logical argument that begins with two assertions, each containing a statement about a category.
Premises
Proposition that is assumed to be true in a logic problem; problem asks what conclusion follows from its premises.
Valid Syllogisms
Conclusion does follow from the premises stated.
Invalid Syllogism
A syllogism in which the conclusion is not logically demanded by the premises.
Belief Bias
If a syllogism’s conclusion happens to be something people believe to be true anyhow, they’re likely to judge the conclusion as following logically from the premises.
Conditional Statements
Statements of the familiar “If X, then Y” format, with the first statement providing a condition under which the second statement is guaranteed to be true.
Selection Task (Four-Card Task)
Procedure used to study reasoning, in which a person is presented with four cards with certain information on either side of the card. Person is also given a rule that may describe the cards, and the person’s task is to decide which cards must be turned over to find out if the rule describes the cards or not.
Utility Maximization
Proposal that people make decisions by selecting the option that has the greatest utility.
Frame
Aspects of how a decision is phrased that are irrelevant to the decision but that influence people’s choices nonetheless.
Risk Seeking
Preference to gamble, presumably because they hope to avoid or reduce the loss.
Risk Aversion
Refusal to gamble, choosing instead to hold tight to what they already have.
Reason-Based Choice
To make decisions that we think are reasonable and justified.
Somatic Markers
Anticipated events can produce bodily arousal, they are a guide to decision-making.
Affective Forecasting
Ability to predict one’s own emotions, usually inaccurate.
Gambler’s Fallacy
Chance has a memory; “man who” anecdotes where a personal case is generalizing for a whole category.
Illusory Covariation
Perceived pattern such that one variable predicts another.
Diagnostic Information
Does an individual case belong to a category?
