wk 9 cog Flashcards
choices
riskless multiattribute choice
Intertemporal Choice - choose an option now or future option
Decisions under uncertainty
Decision under risk (do know probability)
expected value
sum of each possible outcome weighted by its probability
e.g. 80% chance of getting £4000 would be 0.8 x 4000 + 0.2 x £0
people are risk averse when it comes to
gains
expected utility theory
a rational … perception
FINISH
prospect theory
-there is an editing phase (rounding, processes number)
-reference point (how much money u have)
-Value
- Decision weights
endowment effect in
certainty effects and non - linear probabilities
problems with prospect theory: limited scope
1 example
two choices:
A 95% chance to win $2.50 and a 5% chance to lose $0.75
P-bet
A 40% chance to win $8.50 and a 60% chance to lose $1.50
$-bet
An hour later… You own a ticket for this bet. What is your minimum selling price?
Finish
problems with prospect theory: limited scope
Attraction effect
Option A. 40% chance of $25
Option B. 30% chance of $33
Option C. 40% chance of $20
(60% CHOOSE A)
Option A. 40% chance of $25
Option B. 30% chance of $33
Option C. 25% chance of $33
(75% CHOOSE B)
Prospect theory as purely descriptive
descision by sampling.
sampled bank accounts gains and loss.
Prospect theory doesn’t care waht teh processes are, just describes