WEEK 13: Judgment, Reasoning, and Decisions Flashcards
Bottom-up reasoning.
INDUCTIVE REASONING
Top-down Reasoning
DEDUCTIVE REASONING
Reasoning that begins from specific observations to broader generalizations and theories. Conclusions are probability, but not definite.
INDUCTIVE REASONING
Reasoning that begins from more general to the more specific.
DEDUCTIVE REASONING
Deductive Reasoning determines whether a conclusion logically follows from statements called ________.
Premises
STRENGTH OF INDUCTIVE ARGUMENT
How we do the observations about a particular category, representing all the members of that category.
Representativeness of Observation
STRENGTH OF INDUCTIVE ARGUMENT
The conclusion is very strong because of a number of these.
Number of Observations
STRENGTH OF INDUCTIVE ARGUMENT
Stronger evidence results in stronger conclusions.
Quality of Evidence
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Rules of thumb that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem but are not foolproof.
Heuristic
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Events that are more easily remembered are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily remembered.
Availability Heuristic
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Probability that A is a member of class B is determined by how well properties of A resemble properties usually associated with B.
Representativeness Heuristic
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Strong correlation between two events appears to exist, but doesn’t.
Illusory Correlation
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Relative proportions of different classes in the population.
Base Rate
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Probability of conjunction of two events (A and B) cannot be higher than the probability of single constituents.
Conjunction Rule
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Tendency for people to generate and evaluate evidence and test their hypothesis in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitude.
This is a type of conformation bias
Myside Bias
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Selectively looking for information that conforms to a hypothesis and overlooking information that argues against it.
Confirmation Bias
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
The larger the number of individuals drawn from a population, the more representative the group will be of the entire population.
Law of Large Numbers
ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: Easily remembered event is less probable
Availability Heuristic
ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: There is no correlation, or it is weaker than it appears to be.
Illusory Correlation
ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: Presence of similar properties doesn’t predict membership in Class B.
Representativeness Heuristic
ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: Base rate information is not taken into account
Base Rate
ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: Higher probability is assigned to the conjunction.
Conjunction Rule
ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: It is assumed that a small number of individuals accurately represent the entire population.
Law of Large Numbers
ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: People let their own opinions and attitudes influence how they evaluate evidence needed to make decisions.
Myside Bias
ERRORS IN JUDGEMENTS
Error: There is a narrow focus only on confirming information.
Confirmation Bias
The basis of deductive reasoning, introduced by Aristotle.
Syllogism
Syllogism consists of two premises followed by a third statement called the….?
Conclusion
SYLLOGISM
Premises and conclusions are statements that begin with ALL, NO, or SOME.
Categorical Syllogism
SYLLOGISM
First premise has the form IF… THEN. Common in everyday life.
Conditional Syllogism
TRUE OR FALSE
Syllogism is valid when the form of the syllogism indicates that its conclusion follows logically from its two premises.
TRUE
The tendency to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable.
Belief Bias
Method of determining whether a syllogism is valid or invalid.
Mental Model Approach
A specific situation represented in a person’s mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning.
Mental Model
A principle that states that to test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule.
Falsification Principle
DECISION MAKING
Decision making is based on the idea that people are basically rational, so when they have all of the relevant information - they will make decisions that result in outcomes that are in their best interest.
Utility Approach
DECISION MAKING
_______ can affect decisions, as people are not always accurate in predicting their ____ – leading to risk aversion as predicted by the prospect theory.
Emotions
DECISION MAKING
Depend on the context in which they are made, also depends on how choices are presented.
Decisions
DECISION MAKING
When a choice is framed in terms of gains, people tend to use a _____ ________ ________.
Risk Aversion Strategy
DECISION MAKING
When a choice is framed in terms of losses, people tend to use a ____-_______ _______.
Risk-taking Strategy
Studies decision making by combining approaches from Psychology, Neuroscience and Economics.
Neoroeconomics
People’s emotions can interfere with their ability to make ________ _______.
Rational Decisions
In a dual system approach, there are two mental systems.
Between Systems 1 and 2,which one is intuitive, fast, non-conscious and automatic and which one takes over when slower or more thoughtful thinking is necessary?
SYSTEM 1: Intuitive, fast, non-conscious and automatic
SYSTEM 2: Slower, more thoughtful thinking.
