Topics 69-71 Flashcards
Define, compare, and contrast VaR and tracking error as risk measures
- Tracking error is defined as the standard deviation of excess returns. Excess return is defined as the portfolio return less the benchmark return (i.e., alpha).
- VaR may be used to suggest the maximum dollar value of losses for a specific level of confidence over a specific time. From a portfolio management perspective, VaR could be determined for each asset class, and capital allocation decisions could be made amongst the asset classes depending on risk and return preferences. This will help to achieve targeted levels of dollar VaR. In contrast, tracking error may be used to determine the relative amount of discretion that can be taken by the portfolio manager (away from benchmark returns) in his or her attempts at active management.
Describe risk planning, including its objectives, effects, and the participants in its development
There are five risk planning objectives for any entity to consider.
- Setting expected return and expected volatility goals.
- Defining quantitative measures of success or failure.
- Generalizing how risk capital will be utilized to meet the entity’s objectives.
- Defining the difference between events that cause ordinary damage versus serious damage. Specific steps need to be formulated to counter any event that threatens the overall longterm existence of the entity, even if the likelihood of occurrence is remote. The choice between seeking external insurance (i.e., put options) versus self-insurance for downside portfolio risk has to be considered from a cost-benefit perspective, taking into account the potential severity of the losses.
- Identifying mission critical resources inside and outside the entity and discussing what should be done in case those resources are jeopardized.
Describe risk budgeting and the role of quantitative methods in risk budgeting
Quantitative methods (i.e., mathematical modeling) may be used in risk budgeting as follows:
- Set the minimum acceptable levels of RORC and ROE over various time periods. This is to determine if there is sufficient compensation for the risks taken (i.e., risk-adjusted profitability).
- Apply mean-variance optimization (or other quantitative methods) to determine the weights for each asset class.
- Simulate the portfolio performance based on the weights and for several time periods. Apply sensitivity analysis to the performance by considering changes in estimates of returns and covariances.
Describe risk monitoring and its role in an internal control environment
Within an entity’s internal control environment, risk monitoring attempts to seek and investigate any significant variances from budget. This is to ensure, for example, that there are no threats to meeting its ROE and RORC targets. Risk monitoring is useful in that it should detect and address any significant variances in a timely manner.
Identify sources of risk consciousness within an organization
The increasing sense of risk consciousness within and among organizations is mainly derived from the following three sources:
- Banks who lend funds to investors are concerned with where those funds are invested.
- Boards of investment clients, senior management, and plan sponsors have generally become more versed in risk management issues and more aware of the need for effective oversight over asset management activities.
- Investors have become more knowledgeable about their investment choices. For example, beneficiaries of a defined contribution plan are responsible for selecting their individual pension investments.
Describe the objectives and actions of a risk management unit in an investment management firm
A risk management unit (RMU) monitors an investment management entity’s portfolio risk exposure and ascertains that the exposures are authorized and consistent with the risk budgets previously set. To ensure proper segregation of duties, it is crucial that the risk management function has an independent reporting line to senior management.
The objectives of a RMU include:
- Gathering, monitoring, analyzing, and distributing risk data to managers, clients, and senior management. Accurate and relevant information must be provided to the appropriate person(s) at the appropriate time(s).
- Assisting the entity in formulating a systematic and rigorous method as to how risks are identified and dealt with. Promotion of the entity’s risk culture and best risk practices is crucial here.
- Going beyond merely providing information by taking the initiative to research relevant risk topics that will affect the firm.
- Monitoring trends in risk on a continual basis and promptly reporting unusual events to management before they become significant problems.
- Promoting discussion throughout the entity and developing a process as to how risk data and issues are discussed and implemented within the entity.
- Promoting a greater sense of risk awareness (culture) within the entity.
- Ensuring that transactions that are authorized are consistent with guidance provided to management and with client expectations.
- Identifying and developing risk measurement and performance attribution analytical tools.
- Gathering risk data to be analyzed in making portfolio manager assessments and market environment assessments.
- Providing the management team with information to better comprehend risk in individual portfolios as well as the source of performance.
- Measuring risk within an entity. In other words, measuring how consistent portfolio managers are with respect to product objectives, management expectations, and client objectives. Significant deviations are brought to the attention of appropriate management to provide a basis for correction.
Describe how risk monitoring can confirm that investment activities are consistent with expectations
Is the manager generating a forecasted level of tracking error that is consistent with the target?
Tracking error forecast reports should be produced for all accounts that are managed similarly in order to gauge the consistency in risk levels taken by the portfolio manager.
Is risk capital allocated to the expected areas?
Overall tracking risk is not sufficient as a measure on its own; it is important to break down the tracking risk into “subsections.” If the analysis of the risk taken per subsection does not suggest that risk is being incurred in accordance with expectations, then there may be style drift. Style drift may manifest itself in a value portfolio manager who attains the overall tracking error target but allocates most of the risk (and invests) in growth investments.
Therefore, by engaging in risk decomposition, the RMU may ensure that a portfolio manager’s investment activities are consistent with the predetermined expectations (i.e., stated policies and manager philosophy). Also, by running the report at various levels, unreasonably large concentrations of risk (that may jeopardize the portfolio) may be detected.
Explain the importance of liquidity considerations for a portfolio
Measuring portfolio liquidity is a priority in stress testing. One potential measure is liquidity duration. It is an approximation of the number of days necessary to dispose of a portfolio’s holdings without a significant market impact. For a given security, the liquidity duration could be calculated as follows:
LD = Q / (0.1 x V)
where:
- LD = liquidity duration for the security on the assumption that the desired maximum daily volume of any security is 10%
- Q = number of shares of the security
- V = daily volume of the security
Describe the objectives of performance measurement
Performance measurement seeks to determine whether a manager can consistently outperform (through excess returns) the benchmark on a risk-adjusted basis. Similarly, it seeks to determine whether a manager consistently outperforms its peer group on a risk-adjusted basis.
Performance measurement provides a basis for identifying managers who are able to generate consistent excess risk-adjusted returns.
Comparison of Performance with Expectations
- From a risk perspective (e.g., tracking error), portfolio managers should be assessed on the basis of being able to produce a portfolio with risk characteristics that are expected to approximate the target. In addition, they should also be assessed on their ability to actually achieve risk levels that are close to target.
- From a returns perspective (e.g., performance), portfolio managers could be assessed on their ability to earn excess returns.
Return Attribution
- The source of returns can be attributed to specific factors or securities. For example, it is important to ensure that returns result from decisions where the manager intended to take risk and not simply from sheer luck.
- Variance analysis is used to illustrate the contribution to overall portfolio performance by each security. The securities can be regrouped in various ways to conduct analysis by industry, sector, and country, for example.
- In performing return attribution, factor risk analysis and factor attribution could be used. Alternatively, risk forecasting and attribution at the security level could also be used.
Sharpe and Information Ratio
- Strengths of these metrics include the following: (1) easy to use as a measure of relative performance compared to a benchmark or peer group; (2) easy to determine if the manager has generated sufficient excess returns in relation to the amount of risk taken; and (3) easy to apply to industrial sectors and countries.
- Weaknesses of these metrics include the following: (1) insufficient data available to perform calculations; and (2) the use of realized risk (instead of potential risk) may result in overstated performance calculations.
Describe the use of alpha, benchmark, and peer group as inputs in performance measurement tools
- One could use linear regression analysis to regress the excess returns of the investment against the excess returns of the benchmark. One of the outputs from this regression is alpha, and it could be tested for statistical significance to determine whether the excess returns are attributable to manager skill or just pure luck. The other output is beta, and it relates to the amount of leverage used or underweighting/overweighting in the market compared to the benchmark.
- Furthermore, there is the ability to separate excess returns due to leverage and excess returns due to skill. One limitation to consider is that there may not be enough data available to make a reasonable conclusion as to the manager’s skill.
- One could also regress the excess returns of the manager against the excess returns of the manager’s peer group. The features of this regression are generally similar to that for the benchmark, except that the returns of the peer group suffer from survivorship bias, and there is usually a wide range of funds under management amongst the peers (that reduces the comparability).
Differentiate between time-weighted and dollar-weighted returns of a portfolio and describe their appropriate uses
The dollar-weighted rate of return is defined as the internal rate of return (IRR) on a portfolio, taking into account all cash inflows and outflows. The beginning value of the account is an inflow as are all deposits into the account.
Time-weighted rate of return measures compound growth. It is the rate at which $1.00 compounds over a specified time horizon. Time-weighting is the process of averaging a set of values over time. The annual time-weighted return for an investment may be computed by performing the following steps:
- Step 1: Value the portfolio immediately preceding significant addition or withdrawals. Form subperiods over the evaluation period that correspond to the dates of deposits and withdrawals.
- Step 2: Compute the holding period return (HPR) of the portfolio for each subperiod.
- Step 3: Compute the product of (1 + HPRt) for each subperiod t to obtain a total return for the entire measurement period [i.e., (1 + HPR1) x (1 + HPR2) … (1 + HPRn)]. If the total investment period is greater than one year, you must take the geometric mean of the measurement period return to find the annual time-weighted rate of return.
In the investment management industry, the time-weighted rate of return is the preferred method of performance measurement for a portfolio manager because it is not affected by the timing of cash inflows and outflows, which may be beyond the managers control.
If funds are contributed to an investment portfolio just before a period of relatively poor portfolio performance, the dollar-weighted rate of return will tend to be depressed. Conversely, if funds are contributed to a portfolio at a favorable time, the dollar-weighted rate of return will increase. The use of the time-weighted return removes these distortions, providing a better measure of a managers ability to select investments over the period. If a private investor has complete control over money flows into and out of an account, the dollar-weighted rate of return may be the more appropriate performance measure.
Universe Comparisons
Portfolio rankings based merely on returns ignore differences in risk across portfolios. A popular alternative is to use a comparison universe. This approach classifies portfolios according to investment style (e.g., small cap growth, small cap value, large cap growth, large cap value) and, then, ranks portfolios based on rate of return within the appropriate style universe.
The Treynor Measure
The Treynor measure is very similar to the Sharpe ratio except that it uses beta (systematic risk) as the measure of risk. It shows the excess return (over the risk-free rate) earned per unit of systematic risk.
The Treynor measure is defined as:
TA = (RA - RF)/ βA
where:
- RA = average account return
- RF = average risk-free return
- βA = average beta
Ideally, the Treynor measure should be calculated using the actual beta for the portfolio over the measurement period. Since beta is subject to change due to varying covariance with the market, using the premeasurement period beta may not yield reliable results. The beta for the measurement period is estimated by regressing the portfolio’s returns against the market returns.
For a well-diversified portfolio, the difference in risk measurement between the Sharpe ratio and the Treynor measure becomes irrelevant as the total risk and systematic risk will be very close. For a less than well-diversified portfolio, however, the difference in rankings based on the two measures is likely due to the amount of diversification in the portfolio. Used along with the Treynor measure, the Sharpe ratio provides additional information about the degree of diversification in a portfolio.
Sharpe vs. Treynor. If a portfolio was not well-diversified over the measurement period, it may be ranked relatively higher using Treynor than using Sharpe because Treynor considers only the beta (i.e., systematic risk) of the portfolio over the period. When the Sharpe ratio is calculated for the portfolio, the excess total risk (standard deviation) due to diversifiable risk will cause rankings to be lower. Although we do not get an absolute measure of the lack of diversification, the change in the rankings shows the presence of unsystematic risk, and the greater the difference in rankings, the less diversified the portfolio.
Jensens Alpha
Information Ratio
Length of the period, expressed in years, during which we observe the return IR with the set confidence level:
T= (tstat/IR)2
There are (from the FRM perspective) two valid ways to define information ratio: active or residual (aka, alpha) based.
- We can use an active return as the numerator, but then the denominator should be “active risk;” i.e., the standard deviation of the active return.
- If we want to use the more sophisticated IR, we can use residual return (aka, alpha = regression intercept) in the numerator and residual risk in the denominator (i.e., either standard deviation of the alpha or, more commonly, standard error of the regression).