Risk Assesment Flashcards
what is risk assessment?
prior to 2002 - dichotomy = either dangerous or not
now - range/degree - prediction (probability and risk factors) and management (treatments etc.)
Civil settings
- Civil commitment = if person poses danger to themselves or others can be hospitalized involuntarily
- Child Protection - remove child from home to protect from abuse
- Immigration laws - prohibit admission into can if believe will engage in violence or pose risk to social, cultural, economic functioning
- school and labour - prevent any act that would endanger others
- duty to warn/ common law - patient may commit violent act
- statutory law - mandatory reporting
Criminal setting
during pretrial, sentencing and release
adolescents - only committed to secure custody if high risk
smith v jones - public safety outweighs client privilege’s
long term offenders = high risk
parole needs assessment
- NCMD only released after assessment
Smith v. Jones
when defense did not head psychiatrists warnings on future violence, filed affidavit to judge
= when clear serious and imminent danger public safety outweighs solicitor-client privilege
parole board
use many sources including risk assessment to determine if get statutory release (2/3 sentence) or early release
- statutory release can be denied with high risk
prediction outcomes
true positive - predicted to be and is violent
true negative - predicted to not be and is not violent
false positive
false negative
Base Rate problem
Base rate = percentage of ppl within population that commit criminal or violent act
- low base rate = many false positives
- easier to predict frequent events than non frequent
Baxstrom v. Herald
detained beyond sentence and ordered to be released
- released more than 300 mentally ill offenders
Steadman and Cocozza
followed 98 patients relased after Baxstrom that considered too dangerous to be released - 7%violently reoffended
- 86% false positive rate
Thornberry and jacoby
followed 400 forensic patients released after dixon v. attorney general of common… of Pennsylvania
- 15% violently reoffended
- 85% false positive rate
Ennis and Litwack
clinical expertise like “flipping coins in courtroom”
Monahan
psychiatrists active in 1/3 of predictions
Barefoot v. Estelle
US supreme court ruled mental health professionals predictions admissible and “not always wrong only most of time”
R. Moore v. the Queen
supported the role of mental health professionals in
the prediction of violent behaviour
Monahan and Steadman
3 weaknesses in violence prediciton
- limited number of risk factors studied
- how criterion variable is measured - official records underestimates violenmce - not reported/ found
- when records combined with interviews, rates increase
- base rate increases from 4.5 - 27.5% (6 times higher) - how criterion variable defined - violent or not
- change to severity, type, target, location, and motivation
heuristics
shortcuts ppl use to make decisions. lead to inaccurate decisions
illusory correlation
Belief that a correlation exists between two events that in reality are either not correlated or correlated to a much lesser degree
Desmaris, Nicholls, Read, and Brink
association btw clinicians confidence and accuracy at predicting short term in patient violence
- minimal association = overconfident bias
Methods of Risk assessment
Unstructured clinical judgement, actuarial, structured professional judgement
Unstructured clinical judgement
professional discretion and lack of guidelines
- Grove and Meehl - “ informal in the head subjective…”
Pros: flexible, widely applicable, inform treatment and prevention
Cons: highly subjective and inconsistent, questionably relevant outcome, elude scrutiny
Actuarial Approach
Decisions are based on risk factors that are selected and combined based on their empirical or statistical association with a specific outcome. No clinical judgement
pros: demonstrated link btw risk factors and outcomes, reliability btw raters, consistency across time, transparency
limits:
estimates may not generalize to new samples, predictive properties may change in different contexts, constrained use, under samples risk
ex. Violence risk appraisal guide
Tarasoff v. Regents of university of California
common law duty to warn - expressed desire to kill individual in therapy - warned campus security but not police and person killed