Representative Heuristic & Monty Hall Problem - Chapter 8

Question 1

Conjunction Fallacy (Representative Heuristic)

Answer 1

Mistaken belief that finding a specific member in two overlapping categories is
more likely than finding any member of one of the
larger, general categories

Question 2

Representative Heuristic

Answer 2

• Making judgments of likelihood based on how well an example represents a specific category
  
  • Probability substituted
    for resemblance
• Law of small numbers
  
  1. T T T T T T
  2. T H H T T H
• Gambler’s fallacy

Question 3

Base-rate Neglect

Answer 3

• Participants asked if someone is chosen at random from 70 lawyers and 30 engineers, what is their likely profession?
• However, if given descriptions of certain individuals, participants ignored base rate information and chose based on the descriptions
• Decided based on whether the person resembles their conception of a lawyer or engineer, rather than using base-rate likelihood

Question 4

Monty Hall Problem

Answer 4

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows
what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2 or stay with door No.1?”