lecture 1 Flashcards
Five sources of evidence
Well confirmed theories
Several lines of correlation evidence
Collection of many different types of data
Scientific models and computer simulations
Striking agreement
intellectually arrogant
people that consider themselves experts about everything without acknowledging genuine scientific expertise and their own limitations
an illusion of understanding
People feel they understand complex phennomena with far greater precision, coherence, and depth than they really do; they are subject to an illusion of explanatory depth
Experts
Have greater quantity of accurate information than most people doL
layover people (novices)
Have little information in the specified domain
Experts in a given field have
more true beliefs (and fewer false beliefs) in that field than most people do
The capacity to use their knowledge to answer new questions in that field
knowledge of the state of relevant evidence and of the opinions of other researchers in the field
The novice expert problem
How should novices recognize one putative expert as more credible or trustworthy than another
Possible strategies to address the novice experts problem
a) arguments presented
b) agreement with other experts
c) Appraisal by meta-experts
d) conflicts of interest
e) Past track record
Arguments presented (advantage/disadvantage)
Inform from putative experts is widespread and easily available
How can a novice make an accurate assessment of the putative experts arguments and technical language
Agreement with other experts
For any domain, there is typically more than one expert, and the great majority of experts agree on a certain view
Not always clear how to assess consensus
General agreement on a topic doesnt always signal reliability
Appraisal by meta experts (advantage/disadvantage)
Degree, prizes, work experience etc. reflect publicly available certifications by other experts of ones expertise
Novices are not always in a position to assess the significance of ones credentials
Conflicts of interest
A situation where I have multiple interests, and serving one interest could work against another interest
Conflicts of interest (advantage/disadvantage)
Sometimes, conflicts of interest are clear
In many contexts, novices cannot easily detect more subtle conflicts of interest
Past track record (advantage/disadvantage)
It seems easy to check how many times and in what situations a putative expert got it right
For complex phenomena, it may be beyond the novices capacit to check whether a putative expert got it right
