Investments Ch 8 Flashcards
VALUATION OF FIXED-INCOME SECURITIES
VALUATION OF FIXED-INCOME SECURITIES
- The value of a bond is equal to the present value of the expected
future cash flows. - To determine the present value of a bond, the expected cash flows
are discounted at an appropriate discount rate.
Cash Flows - The cash flows for a bond consist of periodic coupon payments and
the par value, or maturity value, of the bond. The coupon payments
can be made over any period but are usually paid on a semi-annual
or annual basis.
Discount Rate
* The discount rate, or the rate at which the cash flows are
discounted, is a critical factor in determining the value of a bond
RESENT VALUE: EXAMPLE
Assume a three-year, $1,000 face value bond that pays an 8 percent
coupon semiannually ($40 twice each year). What is the value of the
bond if comparable bonds are yielding 10 percent?
RESENT VALUE: EXAMPLE
Assume a three-year, $1,000 face value bond that pays an 8 percent
coupon semiannually ($40 twice each year). What is the value of the
bond if comparable bonds are yielding 10 percent?
VALUATION OF FIXED INCOME SECURITIES
Fixed Rate Bonds
Floating Rate Bonds
Zero-Coupon Bonds
VALUATION OF FIXED INCOME SECURITIES
Fixed Rate Bonds
* Bonds that make fixed coupon payments over the life of the bond
Floating Rate Bonds
* Bonds with a coupon rate that changes every year based on
changes in a reference interest rate
Zero-Coupon Bonds
* Bond that make no coupon payments and will sell at a significant
discount from par.
MEASURES OF BOND RETURNS – CURRENT YIELD
Current Yield (CY)
- The current yield of a bond is an indication of the return or income
(cash flow) an investor will receive based on the coupon payment
and the current price of the bond. - The formula for calculating the current yield is:
MEASURES OF BOND RETURNS – CURRENT YIELD
Current Yield (CY)
- The current yield of a bond is an indication of the return or income
(cash flow) an investor will receive based on the coupon payment
and the current price of the bond. - The formula for calculating the current yield is:
Annual coupon payments Current Yield = --------------------------------------- Current Price
CURRENT YIELD: EXAMPLE
A ten-year bond has a 10 percent coupon and is currently selling for
$850
CURRENT YIELD: EXAMPLE
A ten-year bond has a 10 percent coupon and is currently selling for
$850.
Annual coupon payments Current Yield = -------------------------------------- Current Price
= $1000 x 10% $100
——————– = ———– = 1176 x 100 = 11.76 %
$ 850 $850
MEASURES OF BOND RETURNS – YIELD TO MATURITY (YTM)
MEASURES OF BOND RETURNS – YIELD TO MATURITY (YTM)
- It is the interest rate that equates the market price of the bond to the discounted PV of the bond cash flows.
- YTM assumptions:
–the investor buys the bond, holds the bond until it matures
–cash flows are reinvested at the yield to maturity`
YIELD TO MATURITY: EXAMPLE
A 30-year bond that pays a 9% annual coupon, paid semi-annually
and selling for $1,249.45 has a yield to maturity of 7%, calculated as
follows:
Yield to maturity of a bond: EXAMPLE
PV = < $ 1,249.45 > Current bond price
N = 60 = ( 30 years x 2 ) for semi annual interest
PMT = $45 = ( $90 / 2 ) semi annual cash flow PMT
FV = $1,000 maturity par value
I = 3.5 x 2 = 7 % YTM ( annual )
MEASURES OF BOND RETURNS – RELATIONSHIPS
MEASURES OF BOND RETURNS – RELATIONSHIPS
Par = Coupon Rate= Current Yield = Yield to Maturity
Discount = Coupon Rate < Current Yield < Yield to Maturity
Premium = Coupon Rate > Current Yield > Yield to Maturity
MEASURES OF BOND RETURNS – YTC
MEASURES OF BOND RETURNS – YIELD TO CALL (YTC)
Yield to call (YTC) is that rate of return that equates the present value
of the bond (purchase price) to the expected cash flows, adjusted for
the call feature.
YIELD TO CALL (YTC): EXAMPLE
A 30-year bond ($1,000) that pays an annual coupon of 9%, paid
semiannually, is selling for $1,249.45. The YTM is 7%. The bond is
callable in 5 years at 104 (i.e., 104 percent of the par value). The yield
to call equals 4.15 percent.
YIELD TO CALL (YTC): EXAMPLE
A 30-year bond ($1,000) that pays an annual coupon of 9%, paid
semiannually, is selling for $1,249.45. The YTM is 7%. The bond is
callable in 5 years at 104 (i.e., 104 percent of the par value). The yield
to call equals 4.15 percent.
PV = < $ 1,249.45>
n = 10 = ( 5 years x 2 )
PMT = 45 = ( $ 90 / 2 ) semin annual payments
FV = $1040 = ( 104% call price x $1000 )
I = 2.076 x 2 = 4.152 %
COMPARING BOND RETURNS
COMPARING BOND RETURNS
- The taxable bond market consists of U.S. Treasury bonds, U.S.
government agency bonds, and corporate bonds. - The tax-exempt bond market consists of bonds issued by
municipalities, including states, counties, cities and parishes.
TAX EQUIVALENT YIELD (TEY) (1 OF 2)
An investor can convert a municipal bond yield to an equivalent
taxable yield using the following formula:
TAX EQUIVALENT YIELD (TEY)
An investor can convert a municipal bond yield to an equivalent
taxable yield using the following formula:
Tax- exempt yield TEY = ----------------------------------- 1- marginal tax rate
For an investor in the 40 percent income tax bracket, what is the TEY
of a municipal bond that is offering a five percent yield?
If comparable credit-worthy taxable corporate bonds are offering a
yield of 7.5 percent, which bond is preferred?
What is the after-tax yield on the corporate bond?
EXAMPLE TAX EQUIVALENT YIELD (TEY)
For an investor in the 40 percent income tax bracket, what is the TEY
of a municipal bond that is offering a five percent yield?
Tax- exempt yield .05 TEY = ------------------------------ = ------------- = .0833 = 8.33% 1- marginal tax rate 1 - .40
If comparable credit-worthy taxable corporate bonds are offering a
yield of 7.5 percent, which bond is preferred? the TAX FREE
What is the after-tax yield on the corporate bond?
after tax = taxable return x ( 1-marginal tax rate )
= 7.50 x ( 1 - .40 ) = 4.50%
RISKS OF FIXED-INCOME SECURITIES
Systematic Risk Unsystematic Risk
RISKS OF FIXED-INCOME SECURITIES
Systematic Risk Unsystematic Risk
_____________________________________________________
Interest rate risk Default Risk ( credit risk
Reinvestment Rate risk Cal Risk
Purchasing Power risk Liquidity Risk
Exchange Risk
RISKS OF FIXED-INCOME SECURITIES
Interest Rate Risk
RISKS OF FIXED-INCOME SECURITIES
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk is the risk that fluctuations in yields will adversely
impact the value of a security.
ADDITIONAL RISKS OF FIXED-INCOME SECURITIES
ADDITIONAL RISKS OF FIXED-INCOME SECURITIES
- Credit Risk
- Reinvestment Rate Risk
- Purchasing Power Risk
- Call Risk
- Exchange Rate Risk
- Liquidity Risk
TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES
Yield Curves
TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES
Yield Curves
* The Treasury yield curve reflects current market interest rates for
various bond maturities.
- The yield curve is generally upward sloping indicating that yields on
longer-term bonds are higher than yields on shorter-term bonds.
YIELD CURVES
YIELD CURVES
Normal Yield Curve
Flat Yield Curve
Inverted Yield Curve
Humped Yield Curve
YIELD CURVE THEORIES
YIELD CURVE THEORIES
* The Pure Expectations Theory
* The Liquidity Preference Theory
* The Preferred Habitat Theory
* The Market Segmentation Theory
BOND PRICE VOLATILITY
BOND PRICE VOLATILITY
- Bond prices move inversely to bond yields.
- For a given change in yield, longer-term bond price changes are
greater than changes for shorter-term bond prices. - A decrease in yields raises bond prices more than the same
increase in yields lowers prices. - Price movements resulting from equal absolute increases and
decreases in yield are asymmetric. - The higher the coupon, the smaller the percentage price fluctuation
for a given change in yield (except for one-year securities and
consols).
LONG-TERM VS . SHORT-TERM BONDS
LONG-TERM VS. SHORT-TERM BONDS
- Longer-term bonds are more volatile than shorter-term bonds.
- Lower coupon bonds are more volatile than higher coupon bonds.
BOND PRICE CONVERGENCE
BOND PRICE CONVERGENCE
- A bond’s price is subject to the relationship between the coupon
rate, YTM, and term for that particular bond. - Bonds with a coupon rate in excess of the YTM will sell at a
premium, while bonds with a coupon rate below the YTM will sell at
a discount. - All bonds, whether sold at a premium or a discount, will converge to
par value as the remaining term approaches zero.
BOND PRICE VOLATILITY
BOND PRICE VOLATILITY
DURATION
DURATION
Duration is a time-weighted measure of a fixed income security’s cash flows in terms of payback.
Three important uses for duration include:
* Providing a measure of a bond’s volatility;
* Estimating the change in the price of a bond based on changes in
interest rates; and
* Immunizing a bond or bond portfolio against interest rate risk.
CALCULATING DURATION
The following formula is one method for calculating Macaulay duration:
CALCULATING DURATION
The following formula is one method for calculating Macaulay duration:
n = Number of periods until maturity
Cf୲ = Cash flow that occurs in period t
k = Yield to maturity
t = Time period
MACAULAY DURATION
Another method of calculating Macaulay duration is to use the
following closed-end formula:
MACAULAY DURATION
Another method of calculating Macaulay duration is to use the
following closed-end formula:
C = Coupon rate (as a decimal)
k = Yield to maturity (as a decimal)
t = Time until maturity (in periods)
DURATION: EXAMPLE
Calculate the duration of a 10-year bond that pays an 8% coupon
annually. The bond is price to yield 9%
DURATION: EXAMPLE
Calculate the duration of a 10-year bond that pays an 8% coupon
annually. The bond is price to yield 9%
BOND DURATION
BOND DURATION
- Coupon Rate (inverse relationship)
- Maturity (direct relationship)
- Yield to Maturity (inverse relationship)
MODIFIED DURATION
MODIFIED DURATION
- Modified duration is used as an estimate of the percentage
change in the price of a bond based on its duration and the
change in market interest rates. - Modified duration is a linear approximation of the price-yield
relationshipMacaulay Duration Modified Duration = --------------------------------------- Current YTM 1 + ------------------------------- # PMT's in a year
PRICE CHANGE ESTIMATES
We can use Modified Duration to estimate price change.
PRICE CHANGE ESTIMATES
We can use Modified Duration to estimate price change.
change P - D
————- = —————— x change YTM
P 1 + YTM
Change P / P = percentage change in the price of the a bond
D = Macaulay Duration of the bond
YTM = Yield to maturity for the bond
change YTM = Change in the YTM as a decimal
MODIFIED DURATION EXAMPLE
The duration for a 10-year bond that pays a 10 percent coupon,
annually, and is yielding 10 percent is 6.76 years. How much will the
price of the bond change in value if interest rates decrease by 1
percent or 100 basis points to 9 percent?
MODIFIED DURATION EXAMPLE
The duration for a 10-year bond that pays a 10 percent coupon,
annually, and is yielding 10 percent is 6.76 years. How much will the
price of the bond change in value if interest rates decrease by 1
percent or 100 basis points to 9 percent?
change P - D
————- = —————— x change YTM
P 1 + YTM
change P - 6.76
———— = ———————– x ( .09 - .10)
p 1 + .10
change P
————- = .06145 = 6.145 %
p
EFFECTIVE DURATION
EFFECTIVE DURATION
- Direct measure of the sensitivity of a bond to changes in interest
rates. - Accommodates for changing cash flows.
(price if Yield declines ) - (price if Yield Increases) Effective Duration = ----------- ----------------------------------------------------------- ( 2) ( initial Price ) ( Decimal change in yield )