Investments Ch 11 Flashcards
VALUATION
An individual security (or market sector) is analyzed in terms of its
intrinsic value (based on fundamental analysis).
There are several valuation models. Most are based on the concept of discounted cash flows.
* Future dividends
* Future earnings
* Future cash flows
VALUATION MODELS
Two broad types of valuation models for common stocks:
- Absolute valuation models
- Relative valuation models
PRESENT VALUE MODELS
- Determine the value of assets that generate future cash flows, such
as bonds, common stocks, and preferred stocks. - Discount the future cash flows at appropriate discount rates to
determine the present value of the future cash flows.
BASIC PRESENT VALUE MODEL
BASIC PRESENT VALUE MODEL
EXAMPLE OF BASIC PRESENT VALUE
An investor estimates the value of Arc Industries (AI). AI pays an annual dividend of $4, and the investor believes that the shares will be worth $90 at the end of three years. The investor also believes that a risk-adjusted discount rate of 14% is appropriate.
The intrinsic value of AI based on the PV of the dividends plus the futureselling price can be computed as follows:
EXAMPLE OF BASIC PRESENT VALUE
An investor estimates the value of Arc Industries (AI). AI pays an annual dividend of $4, and the investor believes that the shares will be worth $90 at the end of three years. The investor also believes that a risk-adjusted discount rate of 14% is appropriate.
The intrinsic value of AI based on the PV of the dividends plus the future selling price can be computed as follows:
$ 4 $ 4 $94 PV= --------------+ ------------ +------------- = $70.03 ( 1+.14) ( 1+.14) ( 1+.14)
DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL
DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL
The dividend discount model uses dividends as the cash flow inputs
in the model.
- Constant Growth Dividend Model
- Zero Growth Model
- Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model
CONSTANT DIVIDEND GROWTH MODEL
CONSTANT DIVIDEND GROWTH MODEL
- Dividends grow at a constant rate.
- The required rate of return is greater than the growth rate.
Do ( 1 + g ) D1 V= --------------------- = -------------- ( k - g ) ( k - g )
V = value of the stock
Do = the current dividend per share
D1 = the dividend per share one period from today
k = required return of the investor
g = the dividend growth rate
CONSTANT GROWTH MODEL: EXAMPLE
An investor considers whether to buy Parker Inc (PI) stock, which is
currently trading at $72 per share. PI is currently paying a $3.00 per
share dividend. Assume that the growth rate of the dividend is 4% and the investor’s required return is 8%. According to the constant growth model, the intrinsic value can be computed as follows
CONSTANT GROWTH MODEL: EXAMPLE
An investor considers whether to buy Parker Inc (PI) stock, which is
currently trading at $72 per share. PI is currently paying a $3.00 per
share dividend. Assume that the growth rate of the dividend is 4% and the investor’s required return is 8%. According to the constant growth model, the intrinsic value can be computed as follows :
Do ( 1 + g ) 3 ( 1 + .04) V= --------------------- = ---------------------- = $ 78 ( k - g ) ( .08 - .04)
GROWTH OF DIVIDENDS
GROWTH OF DIVIDENDS
The growth rate of dividends and earnings used in the model can be
estimated. A firm’s sustainable growth rate is a function of:
- the percentage of earnings that is reinvested back into the firm
- firm’s return on equity
Retention Ratio = 1 - Dividend Payout Ratio
or
Net Income - Dividends
Retention Ratio = ————————————
Net Income
g = ROE x Retention Ratio
EXPECTED GROWTH RATE: EXAMPLE
Assume the dividend payout ratio is 20% and the firm’s ROE is 15%,
what is the growth rate of the dividends?
EXPECTED GROWTH RATE: EXAMPLE
Assume the dividend payout ratio is 20% and the firm’s ROE is 15%,
what is the growth rate of the dividends?
Retention Ratio = 1 - Dividend Payout Ratio
Retention Ratio = 1 - .20
Retention Ratio = .80
g = ROE x Retention Ratio
.15 x .80 = .12 = 12%
EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN
EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN
The dividend discount model can be used to derive the assumed
expected rate of return. The formula is rearranged algebraically to
solve for the rate of return.
D1 r = --------------- + g P
p = current price of the stock.
EXAMPLE EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN______________________
An investor determines the implicit expected rate of return for Boats
Incorporated (BI) stock. The current dividend of BI stock is $2, and the
dividend growth rate is 5%. The current price of the stock is $42. The
expected return on BI can be computed as follows:
2 ( 1.05) r = ----------------- + .05 = .10 = 10% $ 42
ZERO GROWTH MODEL
ZERO GROWTH MODEL
Preferred Stock & Perpetuities: Zero Growth
- The constant growth dividend model can be used to value stocks
with non-growing dividend streams (such as preferred stock).Do ( 1 + g ) v= ------------------- ( k - g )
If growth is assumed to be zero (g=0), then the formula becomes:
Do v = -------- K
ZERO GROWTH MODEL: EXAMPLE
Alpo Technology’s (AT) preferred shares paying an annual dividend of $4.00 per share. The required rate of return equals 10%. The intrinsic value of AT can be computed as follows:
ZERO GROWTH MODEL: EXAMPLE
Alpo Technology’s (AT) preferred shares paying an annual dividend of
$4.00 per share. The required rate of return equals 10%. The intrinsic
value of AT can be computed as follows:
Do 4 v = -------- = ----------- = $ 40 K .10
TWO-STAGE DIVIDEND GROWTH MODEL
TWO-STAGE DIVIDEND GROWTH MODEL
The two-stage dividend growth model allows for growth rates to
change.
Two components:
1. The cash flows during the initial growth period
2. The cash flows during the constant growth period (the value of
these constant growth cash flows is often referred to as the
terminal value)
TWO-STAGE DIVIDEND GROWTH MODEL: EXAMPLE
Stark, Inc. creates a new product and expects that its dividend will
increase significantly over the next few years
TWO-STAGE DIVIDEND GROWTH MODEL: EXAMPLE
Stark, Inc. creates a new product and expects that its dividend will
increase significantly over the next few years
TWO-STAGE DIVIDEND GROWTH MODEL: PART 1
The constant growth model can be used at year 4 (from year 4 on there will be constant dividend growth). The value at year 4 is $46.67:
Do $ 4.20 v= ------------------- = ----------------- = $ 46.67 ( k - g ) ( .14 - .05 )
TWO-STAGE DIVIDEND GROWTH MODEL: PART 2
FREE CASH FLOW VALUATION
FREE CASH FLOW VALUATION
- A dividend model may not be appropriate in the following cases:
- The company is not paying dividends.
- The company pays a dividend, but it is not representative of the
firm’s ability to pay dividends
FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY
Free cash flow to equity (FCFE)
FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY
Free cash flow to equity (FCFE)
* Cash flow available to the company’s common shareholders after
making necessary investments in current and long-term assets, and
after both debtholders and preferred stockholders have been paid.
- The dividend discount model is adjusted to reflect FCFE
FCFE 1 V= ------------------- ( k - g )
FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY FORMULA
FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY FORMULA
+ Net Income
+ Depreciation and Amortization ( add back non - cash expenses)
- Capital expenditures ( cash that reinvested back into the company)
- Change in net working capital(Working Cap = Curr ASS- Cur. Liability
+ New Bond Issues or Bank Loan
- Debt Repayments
__________________________________________________
= FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY
FREE CASH FLOW: EXAMPLE
A firm has a current FCFE per share of $9.00 and is expected to
increase at 3.5% for the foreseeable future. The required return is
12%. The value of the firm can be computed as follows:
FREE CASH FLOW: EXAMPLE
A firm has a current FCFE per share of $9.00 and is expected to
increase at 3.5% for the foreseeable future. The required return is
12%. The value of the firm can be computed as follows:
Do ( 1 + g ) $ 9.00 ( 1 + .035 ) v= ------------------- = ----------------------------------= $ 109.59 ( k - g ) ( .12 - .035 )
RELATIVE VALUATION
RELATIVE VALUATION
Relative valuation methods are generally referred to as price multiples and can provide insight into asset values.
- Price-to-earnings (PE) ratio
- Price-to-book ratio
- Price-to-sales ratio
- PEG ratio