Investments Ch 4 Flashcards
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Optimal portfolio is one designed to achieve a targeted rate of
return while minimizing risk.
Combining different sets of assets allows for the creation of a
portfolio that maximizes return for a given level of risk.
Understand that there are optimal risk-return trade-off portfolios
PORTFOLIO CONSIDERATIONS
PORTFOLIO CONSIDERATIONS
- Prior to portfolio construction, an investor needs to consider:
- Goals and objectives
- Time frame available
- Risk tolerance
- Asset classes available
- Risks those assets present
RISK TOLERANCE
RISK TOLERANCE
Investor’s ability and willingness to accept variability in returns
over the holding period of an asset Investment Risk
Associated with the variability of returns expected to be received on
an investment
TIME HORIZON
TIME HORIZON
- Once the investor’s time horizon is determined, investments suitable for achieving the investor’s goals can be chosen.
- Short-term goals should be funded with low-risk investments.
- Long-term goals can be funded with higher-risk investments
S&P 500 HISTORICAL ROLLING RETURNS 1930-2020
DIVERSIFICATION
DIVERSIFICATION
- Diversification reduces portfolio risk.
- Involves including a number of different investments in a portfolio to mitigate the risk presented.
- Each additional security added to a portfolio has the potential to
reduce the overall risk of the portfolio. - The incremental impact (on diversification) of each additional
security added the portfolio decreases.
CORRELATION
CORRELATION
- A statistical technique that measures the relationship of one asset
to another, ranges from +1 to -1. - Assets that move together = positively correlated
- Assets that move in opposite directions = negatively correlated
- As long as assets are not perfectly positively correlated, there are
diversification benefits. - To achieve the full benefit of diversification, an investor should
include assets that are negatively correlated
EXPECTED PORTFOLIO RETURN
EXPECTED PORTFOLIO RETURN
Calculating the expected return on a portfolio can be accomplished by weighting the expected returns of portfolio holdings by each security’s percentage of total portfolio value.
Example:
Jeremiah holds a portfolio of two assets:
* 50% in Stock A (expected return of 8%)
* 50% in Stock B (expected return of 6%)
The expected portfolio return is:
(50% x 8%)+(50% x 6%) = 7%
PORTFOLIO RISK
PORTFOLIO RISK
- Risk is the variability of returns compared to the expected return.
- Standard deviation measures all of the risk associated with price
variations in a security - systematic and unsystematic. - Standard deviation of a portfolio is NOT a simple weighted
average. The correlation between asset returns must be
incorporated into the equation
STANDARD DEVIATION
STANDARD DEVIATION
- The standard deviation of an asset is equal to the square root of
the variance in the asset’s returns. - The variance in the returns of a given asset is calculated by
taking the sum of the squared differences between the actual
return and expected return, and dividing that result by the
number of observations minus one - Unlike calculating portfolio expected return, a portfolio standard
deviation cannot be determined by a simple weighted average. The
correlation between asset returns must be incorporated into the
equation
VARIATION AROUND THE MEAN
VARIATION AROUND THE MEAN
PORTFOLIO RISK: STANDARD DEVIATION
PORTFOLIO RISK: STANDARD DEVIATION
- The standard deviation for a portfolio of securities is determined by:
–The individual standard deviation of each security
–The correlation between the securities within the portfolio
–The weightings of each security
PORTFOLIO RISK: TWO ASSET PORTFOLIO
The formula for calculating the standard deviation of a two-asset
portfolio:
PORTFOLIO RISK: TWO ASSET PORTFOLIO
The formula for calculating the standard deviation of a two-asset
portfolio:
PORTFOLIO RISK: EXAMPLE
Amount Standard Deviation Weighting Fund A $60,000 15% 60% Fund B $40,000 8% 40%
PORTFOLIO RISK: EXAMPLE
Amount Standard Deviation Weighting Fund A $60,000 15% 60% Fund B $40,000 8% 40%
THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER
THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER
Harry Markowitz created a model that identifies an efficient frontier
from all of the possible combinations of risky assets.
- For all possible investment portfolios, the expected return and
risk measures are calculated and plotted on a graph. - Coupled with the investor’s risk-indifference curve, the model
suggests the optimal investment portfolio.
An efficient portfolio is one with the highest return for a given amount of risk, or the lowest risk for a given amount of expected return.
THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER GRAPH
THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER GRAPH
OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO
OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO
The optimal portfolio for a client is the point of tangency between the investor’s highest indifference curve and the efficient frontier.
CAPITAL MARKET LINE
CAPITAL MARKET LINE
(CML) consists of all possible combinations of the risk-free asset and the market portfolio.
Uses = Standard Deviation as measure of risk
The point of tangent where the CML and efficient frontier meet is referred to as the market portfolio (M), which is a portfolio of all risky assets.
Portfolios to the left of point M are lending portfolios, and portfolios to the right of point M are borrowing portfolios.
The line fro the RISK FREE rate to the efficient Frontier , where it is tangent. This is the Market portfolio
You can get any portfolio along the Capital Market line, based on your level of risk
Only assets that plot on the Capital Market Line are well diversified Portfolios. that consist of investing in the Market portfolio and some of the risk free assets.
CAPITAL MARKET LINE: FORMULA
CAPITAL MARKET LINE: FORMULA
The formula for the CML is:
Rm - Rf Rp = R i + σp [ -------------------- ] σ m
R p = required portfolio rate of return
r f = risk-free rate of return
r m = return on the market
σ m = standard deviation of the market
σp = standard deviation of the portfolio
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY
MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY
- MPT takes the CML and efficient frontier strategy and creates a
more practical setting by incorporating a measure of systematic
risk, beta. - This combination of a risk-free asset, the market return, and beta
forms a new line called the Security Market Line (SML). The model
is called the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).
Modern Portfolio Theory assumes that investors are rational, that investors can borrow and lend at the risk-free rate, and that there are no taxes or transaction costs.
ri = rf + (r – rf) × 𝛃m
ri =The expected return on security I
rf = The risk-free return
rm = the expected return on the market portfolio
𝛃 = the beta of security I
SECURITY MARKET LINE GRAPHIC
SECURITY MARKET LINE GRAPHIC
graphical representation of expected return and beta
Security Market Line (CAPM): Uses Beta as a measure of risk
* This model determines the required rate of return on an
asset given its systematic risk
(SML) shows the relationship between the level of systematic risk, as measured by beta, and the expected return on an individual security. It is quite simply a picture of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM).
You can use the SML to determine the Required Rate of Return
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM)
CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM)
CAPM = Rf + B(Rm – Rf) = the expected return based on beta, the market premium and the risk-free rate of return
CAPM is designed to predict investor behavior.
(CAPM) is a single-factor model for pricing assets based on their level of systematic risk, as measured by beta
“CAPM gives us an expected or Required rate of return , given the riskiness of the assets. “
Ri = Rf + ( Rm - Rf ) Beta
R i = required rate of return
R f = risk free rate
rm = return on the market
βi = beta of asset i
( Rm -Rf ) = market risk premium
( Rm - Rf ) βi = risk premium on asset i
- Assumptions of the model:
—All investors are rational and have uniform expectations
concerning the risk-return relationships of available investment
alternatives.
—Investors can borrow and lend at the risk-free rate of return.
—The model assumes that taxes are zero and there are no
transactions costs
RISK PREMIUM
RISK PREMIUM
( Rm -Rf ) = market risk premium
The term (r - rf) is the market risk premium, which is them
incremental return provided by a market portfolio over the risk-free
rate of return.
Additional expected return over the risk-free rate of
return that an investor will require to invest in the market which
exposes them to risk.
Risk premium on asset i = ( Rm - Rf ) βi
PORTFOLIO BETA
PORTFOLIO BETA
- The non-diversifiable (systematic) risk of the portfolio.
- Weighted average of the betas of the assets in the portfolio.
- The beta of the market is 1.0
EXAMPLE
Ben owns a portfolio of stocks. The portfolio beta is 0.80. The expected market return is 11% and a risk-free security returns 4%. Using CAPM, the expected portfolio return is:
EXAMPLE
Ben owns a portfolio of stocks. The portfolio beta is 0.80. The expected market return is 11% and a risk-free security returns 4%.
Using CAPM, the expected portfolio return is:
rp = rf + β(rm - rf)
r = 4% + 0.80 (11% - 4%) = 4% + 5.6% = 9.6%p
What is the market risk premium?
What is the risk premium for this portfolio?
ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY
ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY
Asset-pricing model that measures the relationship between risk and expected return.
(APT) is a multi-factor asset-pricing model that is designed to overcome some of the limitations, such as unrealistic assumptions about investor rationality, in the CAPM.
Founded on the belief that there are other important factors that can explain asset returns.
Does not define these other factors but allows them to be any
variable that the analyst feels is important (ex: inflation and changes
in GDP).
ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY: FORMULA
APT is generally expressed as
RISK TOLERANCE MEASURE
RISK TOLERANCE MEASURE
A measure of an investor’s ability and willingness to expose themselves to risk (price fluctuation in investments) in order to seek higher investment returns.
- Factors affecting an investor’s risk tolerance include loss aversion and risk aversion; available liquidity, savings, and insurance programs; time horizon; goals; phase in the life cycle; and psychographics.
- Function of:_____________________________
- Loss aversion and risk aversion
- Available liquidity, savings, and insurance programs
- Time horizon
- Goals
- Phase in the life cycle
- Psycho-graphics
LIFE CYCLE
LIFE CYCLE
RISK TOLERANCE AND ASSET ALLOCATION
RISK TOLERANCE AND ASSET ALLOCATION
Asset allocation is the largest contributor to investment performance over time.
- Risk tolerance and time horizon are important in determining a
proper asset allocation. - Financial planners employ tools to assess the client’s willingness to
accept investment risk: Monte Carlo Simulations, Value at Risk (VaR),
Global Portfolio Allocation Scoring System (PASS).
RISK TOLERANCE TOOLS
RISK TOLERANCE TOOLS
PASS ASSET ALLOCATION RECOMMENDATIONS