Implicit decision making

Question 1

What is reasoning?

Answer 1

The process by which we transform/combine information in order to draw conclusions about the world

Question 2

What is decision making?

Answer 2

The process by which we select an action from a number of choices in order to generate a particular outcome

Question 3

What are the different conditions under which we make decisions?

Answer 3

> Under risk

> Under uncertainty

Question 4

What is rational decision making based on?

Answer 4

> The problem itself is unambiguous
> Single well-defined goal
> All alternatives and consequences are known
> Preferences can be clearly states
> Preferences are constant and stable
> No time/cost constraints
> We make choices that maximise payoff

Question 5

What are the features of intuitive decision making?

Answer 5

> Relies on unconscious, non-rational or non-linear processes
Based on experience
Integrates isolated information into a coherent whole
Relies on biases and heuristics

Question 6

What is the processing distinction?

Answer 6

Dissociation between explicit and implicit forms of decision making
> Analytic/normative = conscious
> Heuristic/intuitive = unconscious

Question 7

What are the different types of decision making tasks?

Answer 7

> Framing problems
Conjunction fallacy
Non-deliberate thinking task
Base rates

Question 8

What is the Asian disease task?

Answer 8

> Framing task
A disease expected to kill 600 people
Two ‘cure’ options
(One numerical, 200 saved, 400 die (either framed positively or negatively))
(One fraction 2/3 chance everyone will die, 1/3 chance everyone will live (framed inverse of previous))
Ppts decide which one to use

Question 9

What did Tversky and Kahneman (1981) find?

Answer 9

> Asian disease task
72% chose 200 will live over 2/3 will die
78% chose 1/3 chance everyone will live, 2/3 chance everyone will die

Question 10

What are the implications of Tversky and Kahneman (1981)?

Answer 10

People are risk averse if potential losses are described first, risk seeking if gains described first

Question 11

What did Tversky and Kahneman (1983) find?

Answer 11

> Conjunction fallacy
Judgement of likelihood of characteristics for a described character (Linda)
Understanding probability theory does not improve performance

Question 12

What is conjunction fallacy?

Answer 12

> Violating the extension law of probability (a conjunction cannot be more probable than its constituents)
Typically simultaneous with the representativeness bias

Question 13

What did Stanovich and West (1998) find?

Answer 13

Those who performed high on SATs (american version) don’t commit conjunction fallacies

Question 14

What did DeNeys, Vartanian and Goel (2008) find?

Answer 14

That the anterior cingulate cortex is activated when replicating Tversky and Kahneman (1983)

Question 15

What does DeNeys, Vartanian and Goel (2008) imply?

Answer 15

That during decision making there is a conflict between intuition and rational judgements

Question 16

What are the criticisms of Tversky and Kahneman (1983)?

Answer 16

> If the statement is changed to indicate that the second feature of the conjunction fallacy may or may not be true, the fallacy drops from 85% to 57%
May indicate that people are using social cues to make pragmatic inferences

Question 17

What is the non-deliberate thinking task?

Answer 17

> Ppts asked to choose the best car out of four
Given either simple case (4 features) or complex case (12 features
Spend 4 minutes making decision or solving complex anagrams
Those in complex task perform better when solving anagrams

Question 18

What is the base-rate task?

Answer 18

> Cab involved in a hit and run, blue or green
85% of cabs are green, rest blue
Witness identified blue
Witness 80% reliable
Ppt asked to determine likelihood car was blue

Question 19

What did Kahneman and Tversky (1973) find?

Answer 19

> Base-rate task
Most responded 80% (neglect base rate)
Demonstrates reliance on eronious information

Question 20

What is the baserate-updated task?

Answer 20

> Thumbnail descriptions of 1000 ppt
995 females, 5 males
Description (androgynous name; Jo) given to ppt, who has to judge gender
Jo has more stereotypically masculine features

Question 21

What did DeNeys et al (2010) find?

Answer 21

More likely to judge Jo as man

Question 22

What have the base-rate and baserate-updated tasks demonstrated?

Answer 22

> People make errors in decision making tasks
When told correct answer, continue to make wrong judgements
Don’t show insight
Highly contextualised experimental thinking
Difficulty adopting or implementing normative standards

Question 23

What are the different theories of decision making?

Answer 23

> Evolutionary theory
Prospect theory
Dual process theory

Question 24

What does the evolutionary theory of decision making propose?

Answer 24

> Reasoning and logic not designed to handle this sort of information
If decision making tasks are presented as frequency performance rises
People use heuristics

Question 25

What does the prospect theory of decision making propose?

Answer 25

> People assign value to each outcome
Probability of outcome is coded as decision weight
Values and weights combined into prospective values
Prospective values used to make decisions

Question 26

What does the dual process theory of decision making propose?

Answer 26

Two processes, analytic and intuitive

Question 27

According to dual process theory, what are the features of analytic thinking?

Answer 27

> Systematic thinking
Unbiased, evaluative
Time consuming

Question 28

According to dual process theory, what are the features of intuitive thinking?

Answer 28

> Heuristics
Biases
Self-evident and self-consistent

Question 29

What are the limitations of double dissociations?

Answer 29

> Difficult to demonstrate
Uses continuous data to find discrete differences
Intuitive/analytic conflicts hard to account for
People rarely use one form of reasoning