Causality Flashcards
What is contiguity?
That events happen in close proximity to one another
What is the constant conjunction?
The idea that every object (ie, a cause) always produces some object (an effect)
What is priority?
Temporal succession
What does Hume propose about causation?
Requires:
> Contiguity
> Priority
> Constant conjunction
What is the thought behind the problem of induction?
Causation is a psychological concept, not a concept about a real mechanism. Causality is an illusion
What is the problem of induction?
> Induction allows predictions based on prior information - unjustified assumptions
Induction relies on generalisations - extrapolation is not based in reality
What are regularities?
A description of events or states due to previous notions or observations
What are the problems with regularities?
Not accurate (ie, black swan effect)
What is the grue problem?
> Grue is true when all seen objects are green, all unseen are blue
‘All emeralds are green’
Leads to green hypothesis (all emeralds are green) or grue hypothesis (all emeralds are grue)
Both hypotheses make different predictions
No way to prove/disprove
What does the grue problem demonstrate?
> Indefinite number of ways to describe the same data
> Different and incompatible ways of extrapolating from data
What does the grue problem highlight?
The importance of induction in deductive reasoning and logical thinking
What did Hempel (1965) propose?
Inductive argument is governed by statistical generalisation
What are the problems with using probabilities, as proposed by Hempel (1965)?
> Not all events are spurious (ie, man-made disasters) - some need causal explanations
People often make inductive leaps with no basis in probability
