Föreläsningar del 2 Flashcards
How does trend projection work?
, It uses least squares regression to determine a trend line for future forecasts.
What are the steps in a multiplicative time series model?,
- Calculate centered moving averages (CMAs).
- Center CMAs on integer-valued periods.
- Determine seasonal and irregular factors.
- Compute average seasonal factors.
- Scale seasonal factors.
- Deseasonalize the data.
- Fit a trend line to deseasonalized data.
- Make deseasonalized predictions.
- Reapply seasonality to predictions.
At what point is profit maximized?,
Where marginal revenue (MR) equals marginal cost (MC).
What does the correlation coefficient r indicate?,
The strength and direction of a linear relationship between variables.
What do different values of r2r^2r2 indicate?
r^2 = 1: Perfectly correlated
r^2 = 0: No correlation
What do different values of r mean?,
R > 0 : Positive relationship
R < 0: Negative relationship
r = 1 :Perfect positive correlation
r = −1 Perfect negative correlation
r = 0: No linear relationship
What does the coefficient of determination r^2 represent?
The proportion of variance in the dependent variable explained by the independent variable.
What is the Delphi method?
A forecasting technique where experts provide anonymous responses to sequential questionnaires until consensus is reached. After each questionnaire the experts get to know the other people’s answers before answering again.
What is scenario writing?
Developing multiple conceptual future scenarios based on assumptions to aid decision-making.
What are subjective or interactive approaches?
Brainstorming and discussions used by committees or panels to develop new ideas.
