Föreläsningar del 13 Flashcards
Q: What is a payoff table?
A: A payoff table shows the payoffs for all combinations of decision alternatives and states of nature, where payoffs can be expressed in terms such as profit, cash, time, distance, or other measures.
Q: What are the two types of nodes in a decision tree?
A: Round nodes represent states of nature, and square nodes represent decision alternatives.
Q: What is the optimistic approach to decision-making?
A: The optimistic approach involves choosing the decision with the largest possible payoff, or the lowest cost if looking at costs.
Q: How does the conservative approach to decision-making differ from the optimistic approach?
A: The conservative approach involves choosing the decision with the maximum payoff of the minimum payoffs, or the lowest cost if looking at costs.
Q: What is the minimax regret approach?
A: The minimax regret approach involves calculating the regret (opportunity loss) for each decision, selecting the decision with the minimum of the maximum regrets.
Q: What is the expected value (EV) approach in decision-making with probabilities?
A: The EV approach calculates the expected return for each decision by summing the products of the payoff under each state of nature and the probability of that state occurring.
Q: What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?
A: EVPI is the increase in expected profit that would result if one knew with certainty which state of nature would occur.
Q: How is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) calculated?
A: EVPI is calculated by determining the optimal return for each state of nature, computing the expected value of these optimal returns, and subtracting the EV of the optimal decision.
Q: What are the steps to develop a scoring model for multicriteria decision-making?
A: The steps include listing decision-making criteria, assigning weights to each criterion, rating how well each alternative satisfies each criterion, and computing the score for each alternative.
Q: What is the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)?
A: AHP is a method for quantifying managerial judgments of the relative importance of several conflicting criteria used in decision-making.
Q: What is involved in the AHP steps?
A: Steps include developing a pairwise comparison matrix, creating a normalized matrix, calculating priority vectors, and determining a consistency ratio to ensure the judgments are reliable.
Q: What is the significance of the consistency ratio in AHP?
A: The consistency ratio ensures that the subjective input in pairwise comparisons is consistent. A ratio of less than 0.1 is considered good.
Q: How is the consistency ratio in AHP calculated?
A: The consistency ratio is calculated by determining the weighted sum of each row in the pairwise comparison matrix, dividing by the corresponding alternative’s priority, averaging the results, and then computing the consistency index and ratio.
Q: What is a payoff in decision analysis?
A: A payoff is the consequence resulting from a specific combination of a decision alternative and a state of nature.
Q: What does a decision tree represent in decision analysis?
A: A decision tree is a chronological representation of a decision problem, showing the sequence of decisions and states of nature.
Q: What do the branches leaving a round node in a decision tree represent?
A: The branches leaving a round node represent the different states of nature.
Q: What do the branches leaving a square node in a decision tree represent?
A: The branches leaving a round node represent the different states of nature.
Q: Where are the payoffs located in a decision tree?
A: The payoffs are located at the end of each limb of the tree, representing the outcomes from the series of decisions and states of nature.
