ELECTIONS - Incumbency and Inauguration Flashcards
INAUGURATION
What is it?
The president is elected in Nov - they are not sworn in and do not take office until mid January the following year.
Chief Justice of the Supreme Court does the Oath.
INAUGURATION 2020
What was Biden’s main message?
Biden - ‘the people, the will of the people has been heard’
‘Democracy has prevailed’
Trump didn’t attend, but Mike Pence VP was there instead.
INCUMBENCY
Who are incumbents?
Of the last 11 elections, 8 have featured an incumbent president seeking another term.
An incumbent is a candidate who is running to be re-elected to a position they hold (sitting candidate)
INCUMBENCY
What advantages do incumbents face in aiming for re-election?
Trying to win against an incumbent president is difficult to do unless he fails to have the support of his own party.
Americans tend to, by default vote for incumbent candidates which produces a knock-on effect… this discourages better known and stronger candidates.
Weaker candidates + less money? All becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Obama in 2012 - Obama was able to raise funds better than Romney. In March, he had over $50 million whilst Romney had $25 million.
Publicity too - in the final weeks of the election in 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit, and so Obama was given a reason to behave presidentially as he toured the disaster hit east coast. Romney was criticised because his policies suggested that the Federal Emergency Management Agency was to be shut.
INCUMBENCY
What are the limits associated with being a sitting president?
As a sitting president, you are criticised for what you’ve said, and what you’ve been able to fulfil… you are on trial.
A strong primary challenge for the President makes him damaged goods before the election itself.
E.g., Trump being confronted about the Proud Boys comments and for failing to denounce white supremacy in 2020.
INCUMBENCY
What are some commonalities that incumbents share?
There have been three modern day presidents that have been defeated for re-election.
Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and Bush in 1992, Trump 2020
They all faced hardships in the primaries, they were all damaged by the election time, they all lost due to failing economy too.
INCUMBENCY
Advantages for Trump 2020 - Weaponising federal government
He weaponised the Federal Government. The Mueller report highlights how Trump believes the federal government exists to serve him. An example of this is him using Attorney General William P. Barr to open an investigation to embarrass Biden.
INCUMBENCY
Advantages for Trump 2020 - Delivery
Trump delivered what he said he was going to - he delivered tax cuts.
The Republican tax plan passed in Dec 2017 and he brought corporation tax down from 35% to 21% after he promised to do so in 2016.
He also promised to reverse defence cuts brought in by Obama in 2013 and after 2016 he steadily increased investment in defence.
INCUMBENCY
Advantages for Trump 2020 - Media attention and the Right
Social media disinformation - the right, helped by troll farms, assisted in disinformation.
Fox News is also essentially a propaganda organ for the White House - it slandered Biden and amplified Trump’s lies. Nothing the left has compares to the magnitude of Fox News’ influence.
‘I love the poorly educated’
INCUMBENCY
Disadvantages for Trump 2020 - Impeachment
First time in Feb 2020 - stemmed from a phone call Trump made to the Ukraine president, encouraging him to dig up dirt on political rival Joe Biden and his son Hunter.
Second time in Jan 2021 - following Jan 6th and the storming of the Capitol where five people died. Trump was blamed because he initially incited the violence through his speech and he also refused to concede peacefully - he refused to accept the election results.
INCUMBENCY
Disadvantages for Trump 2020 - Reaction to BLM
‘Proud boys, stand by’
Didn’t reject white supremacism
Moved BLM Protestors away to have a photo op outside a church.
INCUMBENCY
Disadvantages for Trump 2020 - pardoning war criminals
Disregarded the rule of law by pardoning the Blackwater contractors who massacred the unarmed Iraqi civilians, including innocent women and children.
INCUMBENCY
Disadvantages for Trump 2020 - Threatening covid relief
After the Democrats refused multiple GOP offers since July, Congress finally approved an aid package. Trump refused to sign the bill for nearly a week, forcing millions of Americans into questioning whether they’d have to fend for themselves for the worst of the pandemic.
