ELECTIONS - Election Night and the Electoral College

Question 1

ELECTION DAY + NIGHT

How does the day work?

Answer 1

Most states have polling places open from 7am to 10 pm local time.

When you finish voting in New York, you still have five hours of voting in California.

Some states require photo ID.

You can organise a postal vote.

Question 2

ELECTION DAY + NIGHT

How does the night work?

Answer 2

On election night, TV networks begin ‘calling states’ as soon as the polls close in that individual state.

Networks employ political scientists to try and predict when to call the states.

2000 - Florida was called for Gore, but the scientists had it wrong.

Question 3

ELECTION NIGHT 2016

Background

Answer 3

This was the 58th Presidential election.

Jan 2017 - the US Intelligence Community concluded that the Russian Government had interfered in the 2016 Election process to undermine public faith in the U.S democratic process.

Why did Obama not run again - he couldn’t seek a third term because of the restrictions of the Presidential term limits, established by the 22nd Amendment.

Question 4

ELECTION NIGHT 2016

Feb-June 2016

Democrat primaries

Answer 4

Clinton became the first Democrat to formally launch a campaign for candidacy in April 2015.

She faced challenge from Sanders (Independent Senator from Vermont)

It was super close in certain states - Clinton won the Iowa caucus by a margin of 0.2 points over Sanders.

July 12th - Sanders formally endorsed Clinton at the New Hampshire rally where he appeared with her. He stated in June, his main goal was to work with Clinton to defeat Trump in the General Election.

Question 5

ELECTION NIGHT 2016

Feb-June 2016

Republican primaries

Answer 5

17 major candidates entered the race.

Ted Cruz was first… March 2015.

Between March and May 2016, only three candidates remained in the race… Ted Cruz, Trump, and John Kasich (Former US Rep).

Trump scored landslides in New York and five north eastern states in April 2016. He also had a successful victory in Indiana in May (where all 57 delegates were won). Cruz and Kasich suspended their campaigns.

In July 2016, Trump confirmed Pence was his running mate on Twitter. He made the formal announcement a day after/

Question 6

ELECTION NIGHT 2016

How much free media did Trump receive? How did this help him in the Primaries?

Answer 6

A 2018 study found that he nearly received $2 billion in free media, which is double any other candidate.

Question 7

ELECTION NIGHT 2016

Predictions and the News stations

Answer 7

Trump’s win at the Electoral College was surprising.

Betting firm, Spreadex had Clinton with a much higer ECV than Trump

Question 8

ELECTION NIGHT 2016

How the predictions quickly failed?

What Dem predicted states were won by Trump?

Answer 8

Trump performed well in all the battleground states, such as Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina.

Predicted Democrat states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan were won by Trump.

Question 9

ELECTION NIGHT 2016

Full results - who won and the popular vote!

Answer 9

Businessman Trump and Indiana Governor Mike Pence defeated former Sec of State Clinton and beat Clinton and Kaine.

The winning candidate lost the popular vote… this has only happened five times in History. T won 46% of popular vote, C won 48% of popular vote

Rust belt states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan were WON BY TRUMP!

Question 10

ELECTION NIGHT 2020

Rust belt states - what happened to these?

Answer 10

Rust belt states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan were expected to support Trump as the nominee as they did in 2016 BUT BIDEN WON THESE - he recaptured the traditional blue wall!

Why? Because they were part of a Blue Wall of Democratic-leaning states

Question 11

WHY DID TRUMP WIN 2016?

In the primaries? Media

Answer 11

Though Jeb Bush was initially a party fav because he had brand recognition and had the most cash, Trump was a media king. The soundbites created by Trump meant his coverage was immense.

Question 12

WHY DID TRUMP WIN 2016?

Clinton in the Primaries

Answer 12

Widely established as Clinton V Sanders.

Clinton had to, fire up the difficult-to-reach youth vote. Bernie swiped this - ‘feel the Bern’

The youth loyalty was fundamental because many viewed Clinton as the face of the Establishment with her ties to Wall Street and the lack of trustworthiness meant she had visible negatives.

Clinton knew she was not a natural campaigner and could never whip audiences into a frenzy the way Sanders could.

Question 13

WHY DID TRUMP WIN 2016?

Election Campaign

Answer 13

FBI director James Comey wrote a letter to Congress stating that the Bureau was investigating a new batch of Clinton e-mails from her time as the Secretary of State.

Pollsters then reported a tightening of the race…

Final poll round up before Election Day showed Clinton was ahead by 3.5%.

Question 14

WHY DID TRUMP WIN 2016?

Impact of him winning

Answer 14

Mexican peso fell by 13%.

Canada’s immigration website crashed because of users logging in.

Clinton was too upset to give a speech.

MONUMENTAL REPUDIATION of the status quo, Washington DC, the establishment, and the political elite.

Question 15

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Why

Answer 15

Established because of the continual fear of the tyranny of the mob (French Revolution).

USA was set up by the wealthy English - they didn’t want the. mob.

The Electoral College was set up to stop the election of a populist dictator. The irony of Trump winning was that he essentially outlined the flaws in the system.

It’s difficult to remove because it’s written into the Constitution - 2/3s of the Senate and House of Reps, and 3/4s of all state legislatures need to approve an amendment.

This means you need 67 in the Senate, 270 in the House of Reps, and 38 states to pass an amendment.

Question 16

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Strength: Preserves the voices of smaller states

Answer 16

The smaller-population states, as in 1787, worry that if the Electoral College were to be abolished, the votes of their inhabitants would become worthless.

States such as Florida, California, Texas. This is still a concern – in the first presidential election held in 1788, of the 13 states that took part, the smallest had 3 ECVs whilst Virginia had 12.

By 2016, however, California has 55 ECVs, which is 18 times more than states such as Wyoming and Alaska with 3 votes.

Federalism is maintained because each state can select its electoral procedures.

Question 17

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Strengths: Promotes a two horse race

Answer 17

The President is both Chief Executive, and Head of State = symbol of national unity.

In these two-horse races, the winner will receive more than 50% of the popular vote, which definitely unites the nation.

Between 1864-2016, of the 39 elections that took place, in 2/3s of them, the winner gained more than 50% of the popular vote.

In the last 7 elections, only 3 have seen the president win more than half of the votes.

Question 18

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Strength: No consensus on the alternative

Answer 18

In direct elections, you don’t need to gain an absolute majority, and so there would be a multiplicity of candidates.

The president would likely to be elected with less than 50% of the votes.

Only a constitutional amendment would put this in place… with small-population states wedded to the current system, the chances are slim.

The congressional district system, the direct election, and the proportional system all possess flaws in themselves.

Question 19

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Weakness: Smaller states have disproportionate ECVs

Answer 19

By 2016, California had 55 ECVs representing its 39.2 million people.

Wyoming had 3 ECVs representing its 500,000 + population.

California gets one ECV for every 713,000 people. Wyoming received one ECV for every 195,000 people.

Question 20

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Weakness: Winner-takes-all system distortions

Answer 20

In 2016, Clinton beat Trump with a popular vote of 48% to 46%. She won nearly 3 million more votes than Trump. Trump won.

In 2000, Democrat candidate Al Gore won 48% of the popular vote compared to Bush’s 47%. Bush won.

Question 21

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Weakness: Unfair to national third parties

Answer 21

1992 - Independent Ross Perot won 19% of the popular vote.

Perot failed to get a single ECV - he received only 30% of the popular vote in Maine. He failed to get 10% of the popular vote in only one state.

Regional third-party candidates do better.

Question 22

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Weakness: Rogue electors

Answer 22

Lots of states have laws that require their electors to cast their ballots for the state-wide popular vote winner.

Faithless electors are people who cast their ballot for a candidate other than the one who won the popular vote in their state.

In 2016, we saw multiple rogue electors - 5 Clinton and 2 Trump electors didn’t vote for who they were supposed to.

It SHOULD HAVE BEEN: 306 ECVs for Trump and 232 for Clinton

Instead it was: 304 ECVs for Trump and 227 for Clinton

Question 23

REFORMS TO THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Direct Election

Answer 23

NYT editorial following the 2016 election:

Time to End the Electoral College

‘Americans would prefer to elect the president by direct popular vote, not filtered through the antiquated mechanism of the Electoral College’

They also used a Washington Post poll - in 2007, 72% of the poll participants supported a popular vote election, with only 23% opposed.

Question 24

REFORMS TO THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Flaws of the Direct Election

Answer 24

You don’t need to gain an absolute majority, so there would be a multiplicity of candidates.

The president would likely be elected with less than 50% of the vote.

Only a constitutional amendment could put this in place, with small-population states wedded to the current system, the likelihood the system would change is slim.

Question 25

REFORMS TO THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Congressional District System

Answer 25

MOST ADVOCATED FOR

This indicates that the other 48 states would adopt the system used in Maine and Nebraska. This would involve giving one E.C to a candidate from each congressional district.

You then award two E.Cs to a candidate who is the state-wide winner.

Question 26

REFORMS TO THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Congressional District System example

Answer 26

In 2008, Nebraska split its five ECVs. John McCain won the state but Obama won the presidential vote in the second congressional district, so he won one ECV.

McCain won the other 4 ECVs - he won 2 for winning two other districts, and he won the other two for winning the state-wide vote.

Question 27

REFORMS TO THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Congressional District System flaws

Answer 27

This would lead to the results being marginally different.

In 2004, if used, it would have exaggerated Bush’s winning margin fundamentally.

Had the system been used in 2012, Mitt Romney would have won the election despite losing to President Obama by 5 million votes.

Question 28

REFORMS TO THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Congressional District System flaws

Answer 28

This would lead to the results being marginally different.

In 2004, if used, it would have exaggerated Bush’s winning margin fundamentally.

Had the system been used in 2012, Mitt Romney would have won the election despite losing to President Obama by 5 million votes.

Question 29

ELECTORAL COLLEGE REFORM

Proportional system

Answer 29

This would entail allocating ECVs in each state proportional to the popular vote in that state.

Consequently, electors would not be required.

The result would be determined by maths and not the electors.

In reality, this system would abolish the Electoral College System, which would encourage more voters to vote for national third parties.

Question 30

ELECTORAL COLLEGE REFORM

Proportional system flaws

Answer 30

This would mean that no candidate would gain an absolute majority of ECVs

Question 31

ELECTORAL COLLEGE REFORM

Why the future looks bleak

Answer 31

It requires a constitutional amendment which needs 2/3s in both the Houses of Representatives and the Senate.

It also requires 3/4s of all the state’s support.

Constitutional amendments are incredibly difficult to pass, especially as there is no consensus as to what would replace the system.