ELECTIONS - 2020 Election Research Flashcards
Who were the main contenders for the Democratic Nomination?
JOE BIDEN
Former V.P
Led the polls in 2019
Was also in the Senate
Poor performance in Iowa and New Hampshire though made a significant comeback in the South Carolina primary which he won. This was pushed forward by the strong support from A.A community.
Several candidates dropped out following the South Carolina performance.
He is the Party’s moderate wing.
During Super Tuesday, Biden won 10/15 contests. He faced challenges from Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Michale Bloomberg.
Early June, he passed threshold for delegates needed to win the nomination.
Works for the establishment, is a white old man, very moderate democrat.
Why did Biden win the Democratic nomination?
Super Tuesday + South Carolina
Though Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada were humbling losses for Biden, the dominating victories in South Carolina (help from the AA voters), he was back on track.
South Carolina’s Feb 29th Primary gave Biden a much-needed comeback.
It was the first heavily AA state to have a say – 64% of AA voters supported Biden. They wanted to restore the Obama era, in comparison with the voters of Iowa and New Hampshire. More than half were not white, whereas in Iowa and New Hampshire, 9/10 voters were white.
Super Tuesday!! On March 3rd, he won 10 states. Biden expanded his coalition among liberals, the college grads, and the younger voters. African American voters helped this significantly.
As the more moderate candidates dropped out, and endorsed Biden, his campaign re-energized him.
Why did Biden win the Democratic nomination?
BLM
George Floyd’s death and the coronavirus impact on employment meant that: Biden was the only said suitable candidate. According to Vote Cast, 39% believed he would be the best Democrat to address the issue of racial matters… he then effectively gave a speech in Philadelphia, claiming that the moment has come for our nation to deal with systemic racism.
‘To deal with the growing economic inequality in our nation’
RESULT OF THE ELECTION
Biden’s results
Biden won - he received 306 ECVs and a popular vote of 52%
RESULT OF THE ELECTION
Trump’s failure
Incumbent lost - he received 232 ECVs and a popular vote of 47%
RESULT OF THE ELECTION
Overall analysis - In comparison with 2016 and the Rust Belt
Though the Democrats were scared when Biden lost Florida by such a large margin, he quickly recovered. Biden actually also lost votes in Miami compared with Clinton in 2016 because he didn’t appeal to the Cuban American voters.
Rust belt results eased the Democrat’s urban fears – Biden secured a large margin in suburbs compared to 2016. This is because of BLM protests that were sparked by the murder of Jacob Blake in August. Black voters turned out in such large numbers that the state was flipped – the Democrats had lost by fewer than 23,000 votes in the last election.
RESULT OF THE ELECTION
Overall analysis - rural/metropolitan counties
Whilst Trump gained votes in rural counties, Biden gained votes in larger metropolitan areas – Democratic swing in Philadelphia and Detroit suburbs outweighed Trump’s gains in rural counties.
Biden won the rust belt that Trump won in 2016 - Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Dems gained in suburban areas too - 33% rural for Biden and 65% rural for Trump
RESULT OF THE ELECTION
Overall analysis - education
Diploma Divide:
54% of high school grads supported Trump (NFE)
non-college votes shifted 1% to Biden.
terrifying stat: 44% of all voters in 2020 were non-college voters.
RESULT OF THE ELECTION
Overall analysis - age
In counties where over 25% of the population were aged 18-34, there was a 71% swing to the Democrats.
WHY BIDEN WON THE ELECTION
Blue Wall
Biden rebuilt the blue wall that crumbled in 2016 - he won Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. This hurt Trump, as he had won all these states in 2016.
The margins were super close yet he still flipped the five states - Georgia even had a recount.
He also won more votes than any presidential candidate in American history.
WHY BIDEN WON THE ELECTION
BLM
Trump called the anti-racist protestors thugs, and stated that ‘when the looting starts, the shooting starts’
Biden, consoled Floyd’s family and visited protestors in Delaware and attended a community meeting at a local Black church.
WHY BIDEN WON THE ELECTION
Fundraising
Democrat groups out-fundraised the Republicans… $6.9 billion to $3.8 billion.
Smaller donors consisted of 22% of the money raised, whilst 42% came from larger individual donations.
AFTER ELECTION
Blue shift
Trump claimed that mail-in ballots were suspicious as they leaned towards Biden - this is a common phenomenon where more Democrats than Republicans vote by mail.
Mail ballots are counted after election day in many states - Trump’s attack on the mail in voting also reduced the number of Republicans using the mail ballots.
RESULT OF THE ELECTION
Overall analysis: race
black women: 9% REP
white women: 55% REP
only 41% of white folk OVERALL voted for Biden.
RESULT OF THE ELECTION
Overall analysis: gender
Trump made a 4% gain with women since 2016.
