decision making Flashcards
making conclusions from observations is what type of reasoning?
inductive
testing a hypothesis is what type of reasoning?
deductive reasoning
what is the belief that logical reasoning is human nature?
logicism
what the fuck is a syllogism?
statements with premises and conclusions
what are the three types of syllogisms
all statements (all a are b), negative statements (no a is b), some statements (some a are b)
how do we measure the validity of a syllogism?
it depends on if the conclusion is true given the premises’ structure. NOT based on actual truth
believing that not doing something is not as bad as doing describes what?
omission bias
what is the belief bias
we use prior knowledge (schemas, heuristics) when solving syllogisms
if P then Q describes what
conditional reasoning
Watson’s four card task where you must verify if a an even number is paired with a vowel on the other side illustrates what ?
confirmation bias
what does confirmation bias state
we seek evidence that confirms our hypothesis and ignore information that may refute it
conditional reasoning requires _____ which states we need to look for statements that would ____ a rule
falsification, falsify
people’s moral obligations are dependent on a societal agreement describes what
social contract theory
an over application of heuristics leads to ____
biases
the probability that something is a member of a category because it resembles that category describes what?
representativeness bias
the alan example leads to ____ ___ _____ which states we….
base rate neglect: we ignore important information (there are more farmers than librarians) when reasoning
the linda example is an example of _____ _____ which states….
conjunctive fallacy: false assumption that more specific facts are more likely than a single fact
describe the availability bias
we think how likely something is to occur based on how fast an example of that event comes to mind
someone who watches many crime shows thinking crime is on the rise is an example of…
availability bias
assuming there is a correlation or causation between two co-occuring events describes what?
illusory correlations
describe the anchoring and adjustment heuristic
using known information as a starting point to anchor our judgement
What is the gambler’s fallacy
the false belief that if an event happens more than normal, it is less likely to happen in the future
give an example of the gamblers fallacy
betting on red after 10 consecutive blacks because its due for a red in roulette
thinking that something a successful streak will keep experiencing success because of the streak describes what
hot-hand belief
what is the post-mortem technique for overcoming heuristics?
learning from failure
looking ahead to see what could fail describes what?
pre-mortem technique at overcoming heuristics
describe regression toward the mean
if one sample of a random variable is extreme, the next sampling is likely to be closer to the mean
having our rationality limited due to external factors describes what?
bounded rationality
what is it when we say people are satisfiers?
we look for solutions that are ‘good enough’
what is ecological rationality?
viewing heuristics as an optimal approach to problem solving
