Chapter 13: Judgment, Decisions, And Reasoning Flashcards
Judgement
Making decision or drawing a conclusion
Decisions
The process of making choices between alternatives
Reasoning
The process of drawing conclusion
- start with info and come to conclusions that go beyond that info
Inductive Reasoning
- Reasoning based on observation
- Reaching conclusions from evidence (probably true instead of definitely true)
- Strength of argument
Inductive Reasoning: Strength of argument
- Representativeness of observation: how well observation represents all numbers of that category
- Number of observations
- Quality of observatons
Heuristics
“Rules of thumb” that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem, but are not foolproof
- Availability heuristic - Representative heuristic
Availability Heuristic
Events that are more easily remembered are judged to be more probable than events that are less easily remembered
- Illusory correlations
Illusory correlations
Correlation that appears to exist between two events, but there is weak/no correlation
- ex. Stereotypes
Stereotypes
Oversimplified generalization about group/class of people that often focus on negative characteristics
Representative Heuristic
Probability that event A come from class B can be determined by how well A resembles properties of class B
- Use base rate information if it is all that is available - Use descriptive information if available and disregard base rate information - Conjunction rule
Base Rate
Relative proportions of different classes in population
Conjunction rule
Probability of conjunction two events cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents
Law of Large Numbers
The larger the number of individuals randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population
Myside Bias
Type of confirmation bias in which people generate and test hypothesis in way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes
Confirmation bias
Tendency to selectively look for information that conforms to out hypothesis and overlook information that argues against it
Backfire Effect
Occurs when individuals support for particular viewpoint becomes stronger when faced with corrective facts opposing their viewpoints
Deductive Reasoning
Reasoning that involves syllogisms in which conclusion logically follows from premises
- Syllogism
Syllogism
- Two statements called premise
- Third statement called conclusion
- Valid if conclusion follows logically from its two premises
- If two premises of a valid syllogism are true, the syllogism’s conclusion must be true
Categorical syllogism
Describe relation between two categories using all, no, or some
Validity
Quality of syllogism whose conclusion follows logically from its premises
Mental Model Approach
- Deductive reasoning
- Determining if syllogisms are valid by creating mental models of situations based on premises of syllogism
Mental model
Specific situation that is represented in a person’s mind
- Create model of situation - Generate tentative conclusion about model - Look for exceptions to falsify model - Determine validity of syllogism
Conditional Syllogisms
“If p, than q”
- Modus ponens - p therefore q - Modus tollens- not q, therefore not p
Wason Four-Card Problem
Conditional reasoning task developed by Wason that involves four cards
- Determine minimum number of cards to turn over to test: if there is a vowel on one side, then there is an even number on other side
Falsification Principle
Reasoning principle that to test a rule, it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule
- Most participants fail to do this - When problem is stated in concrete everyday terms, correct responses greatly increase
Permission Schema
If A is satisfied, B can be carried out
- Used in the concrete versions - People are familiar with rules
Cosmides and Tooby (1992)
- Created unfamiliar situations where cheating could occur
- Participants did well
- People may be more sensitive to situations involving permissions or regulation
- From evolutionary perspective, being on the lookout for cheaters is important to survival
Conditional Reasoning
- Context is important
- Familiarity is not always important
Expected Utility Theory
- People are rational
- If they have all relevant information, they will make a decision that results in the maximum expected utility (most beneficial results)
Utility
Outcomes that achieve a person’s goals
- Maximum monetary payoff
Decision Making: Utility Approach
Advantages:
- Specific procedures to determine the “best choice”
Problems
- Not necessarily money, people find value in other things - Many decision do not maximize the probability of the best outcome
Decision Making: Emotions affect decisions
- Expected emotions
- People inaccurately predict their emotions
- Overestimate negative emotion
Expected emotions
Emotions that people predict that they will feel concerning an outcome
Risk Avoidance
Anxious people tend to avoid decision making
Risk Aversion
Tendency to make decision that avoid risk
Incidental emotions
Emotions not directly caused by act of having to make a decision
- Can affect one’s overall decision-making processes
Decisions depend on how choices are presented
- Opt-In Procedure
- Opt-Out Procedure
- Status Quo Bias
Opt-In Procedure
Active step to be an organ donor
Opt-Out Procedure
Organ donor unless request not to be
Status Quo Bias
Tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision
Risky Decisions
- Risk aversion strategy used when problem is states in terms of gains
- Risk-taking strategy when problem is stated in terms of losses
Risk aversion strategy
Governed by idea of avoiding risk
Risk-taking strategy
Governed by idea of taking risks
Framing Effect
Decisions are influenced by how choices are stated
Framing effect can highlight one aspect of situation
- When situations are framed in terms of gains, people tend toward a risk aversion strategy
- When situations are framed in terms of losses, people tend toward a risk-taking strategy
Neuroeconomics
Approach to studying decision making that combined research from psych, neuro, and Econ
- One finding: decisions are influenced by emotions and those emotions are associated with activity in specific area of the brain
Sanfey and coworkers (2003)
- Measured brain activity
- Ultimatum game
- Often rejected low offers because they became angry that offers were unfair
- Less angry with an “unfair” computer
Ultimatum Game
Game in which proposer is given sum of money and makes offer to responder as to how many should be split between them
- Responder must choose to accept or reject offer
Sanfey and coworkers (2003) brain activity
- More activation of right anterior insula (connected with emotional states) participants more likely to reject more offers (3x stronger)
- Emotion is important in decision making
- PFC= implementing cognitively demanding decision to reject unfair offers
Right anterior insula
Social and individual decision-making
Dual Systems Approach to Thinking: Kahneman (2011)
- System 1: fast, automatic, intuitive, nonconscious
- Provides info for System 2
- Linked to many errors
- System 2: slower, deliberative, conscious, controlled
- monitors info and takes over when too tough
Dual Systems Approach to Thinking: Stanovich and West (2000)
- Favor terms Type 1 processing and Type 2 processing
- Similar characteristics as Kahneman’s System 1 and System 2
- Favored by many researchers because better reflects the interconnected, distributed processing that occurs in the brain
