chapter 13 judgement and decisions Flashcards
inductive reasoning
the process of drawing general conclusions based on specific observations and evidence
factors that contribute to inductive arguments
1 representativeness of observations, 2 number of observations 3 quality of the evidence
availability heuristic
events that are more easily come to mind are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily recalled
illusory correlations
a relationship between two events appears to exist but reality there is no relationship at all
stereotypes
an oversimplified generalization about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negative
representativeness heuristic
likelihood that an instance is a member of a larger category depends on how well that instance resembles properties we typically associate with that category
conjunction rule
the probability of the conjunction of two events cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents
Myside bias
people generate and test hypotheses in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes
confirmation bias
people look for info to conform to their hypothesis and ignore info that refutes it
potential sources of errors in judgements
backfire effect
A person’s support for a particular viewpoint becomes stoner when presented with facts opposing their viewpoint
deductive reasoning
determination of whether a conclusion logically follows from statements
difference between deductive and inductive reasoning
Inductive starts with specific cases and generalizes to broad statements. deductive starts with a broad principle and to make logical statements about a specific statement or instance
validity
quality of syllogism whose conclusions follow from its premise
belief bias
tendency to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable or that it is invalid if the conclusion is not believable
mental model approach
in deductive reasoning determining if syllogisms are valid by creating mental models of situations based on the premises of the syllogism
conditional syllogisms
have two premises and a conclusion like categorical syllogism but the first premise has the form if…then
wason four card problem
a conditional reasoning task that involves four cards. used to determine the outcomes of conditional reasoning tasks.
falsification principle
to test a rule it is necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule
expected utility theory
based the idea that people are basically rational
expected emotions
emotions people expect they will feel after a desired outcome is reached
risk aversion
tendency of avoiding taking risks.
incidental emotions
are emotions that are not caused by having to make a decision
difference between opt in or opt out
opt in you have to actively do something to get what you want, opt out you are subscribed to something unless you decide not to be enrolled in it.
status quo bias
the tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision
risk aversion strategy
a decision making strategy that is governed by the idea of avoiding risk
risk taking strategy
a decision making strategy governed by the idea of taking risks
dual system approach
idea that we have two mental states a fast automatic intuitive system and a slower more deliberative thoughtful system called system 2
