Chapter 13: Decision-Making Flashcards
reasoning
the act of drawing new conclusions from existing information
decision-making
the act of choosing a specific course of behavioural actions among multiple possibilities
Expected utility hypothesis (EUT)
a theory from economics that holds that people make a decision in accordance with maximizing expected value
criticisms of EUT
the theory was criticized by Kahneman and Tversky who demonstrated through many experiments that people are often irrational
neuroeconomics
a field of research that combines economics, neuroscience, and psychology to understand the choices that humans make
premises
an estimate about whether certain facts about the world are true
propositions
any statement that can be true or false and can refer to properties of the external world or about our experiments
two types of reasoning
deduction & induction
deduction
a kind of reasoning process where the conclusion logically follows from the initial premises. it involves using general theories to reason about specific observations
induction
a kind of reasoning process which relies on generalizing from a certain set of information and extending it to make an informed guess
logic
concerned with determining what kinds of inferences can be made with certainty from a given set of statements
who is credited with deduction
artistotle
who is credited with logic
artistotle
syllogism
a kind of reasoning that involves drawing a conclusion from two or more propositional statements
categorical syllogism
a kind of syllogism consisting of three statements: two premises and one conclusion
perfect syllogism
a kind of syllogism that is obviously true
valid syllogism
the conclusion follows directly from the premises
is a valid syllogism necessarily true?
no
the truth of a syllogism depends on ___
whether the initial premises are true
fallacies
an invalid syllogism
Piaget, 1970 on deductive reasoning
the ability to reason deductively is a critical step in psychological development underlying many cognitive functions
criticisms of Piaget’s account of deductive reasoning
humans often fail to reason deductively
Evans & Feeney, 2004 belief bias experiment
found that believable syllogisms were much more accepted, whereas invalid, unbelievable syllogisms were rarely accepted
belief bias
a tendency to rate conclusions that are more believable as more valid
when does belief bias decrease?
when people were given as much time as they wanted to think about the syllogism compared with when they were given only a few seconds to respond
atmosphere effect
a tendency to rate the conclusion as more valid as long as the qualifying words in the premises match those in the conclusion
mental models
people construct mental simulations of the world based on statements to judge logic and validity
who proposed mental models?
Phillip Johnson-Laird, 1983
conditional/ hypothetical syllogism
a kind of syllogism that states a rule that relates two propositions. If P, then Q statements
p
the antecedent
q
the consequent
Modus ponens/ affirming the antecedent
a rule in relation to conditional syllogisms in which the antecedent is observed to be true, then the consequent may be concluded to be true
Modus tollens/ denying the consequent
a rule in relation to conditional syllogisms when we observe that the consequent is false and conclude that the antecedent must be false as well
Affirming the consequent
an invalid conclusion from a conditional syllogism in which one concludes that the antecedent is true because the consequent is true
denying the antecedent
a kind of invalid reasoning from a conditional syllogism in which one concludes that the consequent is false based on the antecedent being false
accuracy of identifying modus ponens vs. tollens
People are nearly perfect at identifying modus ponens, but their performance drops dramatically for modus tollens
accuracy of identifying valid vs. invalid syllogisms
People are worse at correctly identifying syllogisms as invalid than they are at establishing them as valid
Wason, 1968 confirmation bias experiment procedure
presented participants with a set of four cards with letters printer on one side and numbers on the other, along with a simple rule that may or may not be true about each of these four cards. He asked participants to turn over all the cards that are relevant to determining whether the stated rule is true or not
Wason, 1968 confirmation bias experiment findings
The correct answer was E & 7. Most participants get this task wrong because they are more likely to look for confirming rather than disconfirming information
confirmation bias
the tendency for people to find supporting evidence for a hypothesis or belief
Griggs & Cox, 1982 confirmation bias experiment
used a logically identical version of the four-card task and found that participants performed much better than in Watson’s original task. They hypothesized it is because people perform logical reasoning more effectively when dealing with concrete, real-world examples
David Hume on induction
even things that we consider to be certain are really based on inferential guessing
induction involves
making more general assumptions
generalization
extrapolation from a limited number of observations to draw a conclusion about the broader population or category
statistical syllogism
a form of inductive reasoning in which observations about a group lead to inferences about an individual
argument from analogy
a form of inductive reasoning in which the observation that two things share some set of properties and conclude that they must share a different property
real-world implication of induction
induction underlies much of learning, including learning the meaning of words
one-shot learning
when a concept is learned from a single example
Bayesian inference
a mathematical model for updating existing beliefs called “a prior with new data”
heuristics
Mental shortcuts for drawing inferences based on limited information without slow deliberation
Daniel Kahneman on reasoning
we engage in two different reasoning systems under different conditions
slow system
engages in serial, logical analysis of information
fast system
relies on heuristic shortcuts and is more akin to pattern matching than logical thought
availability heuristic
a tendency to rely on information that quickly comes to mind when making a decision
Lichtenstein et al., 1978 cause of death experiment
found that peoples’ assessments of the prevalence of different causes of death were based on 1) whether they personally knew anyone who had experienced that cause of death & 2) the prevalence of stories about the causes of death in the media
Combs’ 1979 reporting different causes of death experiment
found that newspapers were much more likely to report on sensational causes of death
Riddle, 2010 violent media experiment
found that people who were exposed to violent media rated violence as being more prevalent
affect heuristic
the tendency for people to overestimate the risk of events that generate a strong emotional reaction, such as dread
dread and prevalence of events
the more a particular risk generated a sense of dread, the more prevalent it was rated
Availability and affect heuristics can lead to ___
distortions in our assessment of risk
anchoring heuristic
the tendency for people to focus on and rely on initial pieces of information
Tversky & Kahneman, 1974 anchoring heuristic experiment
had participants watch a roulette wheel that was fixed to land on a high or low number. Afterward, participants were asked to make an estimate about a question they were likely to have little knowledge of. They found that people who had seen higher roulette numbers had higher estimated
social security number and anchoring heuristic
asked participants to name the last two digits of their social security number. Found that the numbers correlated with the price people were willing to pay for items in an online auction
who is more susceptible to the anchoring heuristic
people whose personality is more prone to trusting others
representativeness heuristic
the tendency for people to rely on the fact that a person or object they are trying to make a decision about conforms to a specific category while neglecting other types of information or reasoning
conjunction fallacy
an error in logic in which people assume two specific conditions are more probable than a single, encompassing condition
base-rate fallacy
an error in reasoning in which people ignore the underlying probability of an event in favour of some present evidence
Ross et al., 1975 sucide notes experiment
presented participants with sets of suicide notes and had them guess which were real and which were fake. The participants were either told that they did really well or really poorly, but then they were debriefed and told that this wasn’t true, Participants then had to assess how well they thought they had actually done compared to average performance and those who had initially been told they did well guessed that they had done better than average and those who had initially been told they did poorly guessed that they had done worse than average
cultural cognition
a tendency for people to hold beliefs about the risk that is consistent with their broader social and moral values
Kahan et al., 2007 perception of risk experiment
ask participants about their views on several hot topic issues and certain cultural worldviews. Found a strong correlation between people’s values and their perceptions of risk
Kahan et al., 2010 consensus and worldviews experiment
asked participants to assess the scientific consensus on these issues rather than reporting their own views. Found that participants’ belief about consensus followed their own worldviews
Nyhan & Reifler, 2010 factual correction and news articles experiment
had participants read mock news articles that contained a misleading claim from a politician that conformed to their beliefs. They then compared this to a group that read the same claim followed by a factual correction. Found that those who had received the correction reported a higher belief than those who didn’t
optimism bias
people overestimate the likelihood of positive events such as job success or positive family outcomes
Wise et al., 2020 optimism and COVID-19 experiment
found that Americans tended to underestimate their likelihood of being infected with COVID-19 relative to the general population. Their assessment of how likely they were to be infected was predictive of how likely they were to take preventative measures
loss aversion
A tendency for people to prefer avoiding losing something as opposed to gaining something of equal value
endowment effect
the fact that people place a higher value on objects they already own over those that they don’t yet own
Knetsch, 1989 exchanging gifts experiment
found that participants who were initially given one kind of gift showed a strong preference to keep it rather than exchange it for the other gift choice
Ikea effect
the tendency for people to place a higher value on objects they built themselves rather than objects that others built
status quo bias
a tendency to leave things as they currently are rather than make a change
Samuelson & Zeckhauser, 1988 inheritance and status-quo experiment
presented participants with different versions of a scenario in which they had been left an inheritance by a great uncle. They found that participants had a strong tendency to maintain the investments they had inherited rather than to make other purchases with the funds
framing effects
The way questions and information are worded can affect people’s decision-making
what kinds of options do people favour?
those that are presented in a positive, rather than a negative fashion
Kahneman & Tversky, 1978 intervention programs and framing experiment
presented participants with the choice between two intervention programs. Found that participants were much more likely to choose the option described in terms of how many people will be saved rather than how many will die
Levin & Gaeath, 1988 meat and framing experiment
found that participants favoured 75% lean over 25% fat meat, despite them being the same thing. They also reported that the 75% lean meat tasted better
2 basic types of emotional factors in decision-making
integral & incidental emotions
integral emotions
those that are directly related to the decision
incidental emotions
emotions that are not directly related to the decision but that happen to be the state of the person at the time they are making the decision
Atalay & Meloy, 2011 retail therapy experiment
found that people who were in a more negative mood were more likely to engage in an unplanned purchase of a treat item. They also found that such a purchase had a lasting positive effect on the person’s mood afterwards.
purchasing behaviour of people who are disgusted vs. sad
found that people who were disgusted were more likely to sell and buy at a lower price overall, while those who were sad were willing to sell at a lower price
purchasing behaviour of people who are in a negative mood
when you’re in a negative mood, you’re motivated to change something
ultimatum game
an experimental paradigm in which two people, a proposer and a responder, split a pot of money
ultimatum game results
In the paradigm, the proposer is given first dibs on how to split the pot of money, while the responder can accept or reject the proposal. However, if it is rejected, no one gets any money. In most situations, responders will reject an offer below a 7:3 split, despite the fact that a little bit of money is better than none
what’s the main brain area involved in decision-making
The vmPFC
result of bilateral lesions to the vmPFC
the inability to take into account the long-term outcomes of a decision. They can reason about morally and socially appropriate behaviours but often do not select these behaviours when faced with a choice
gambling game and people with vmPFC damage
people with vmPFC damage who were playing a card gambling game often chose strategies that led to short-term gains but long-term overall loses
somatic marker hypotehsis
the vmPFC is involved in associating emotional reactions with certain behaviours. When people are faced with a complex decision, they recruit the vmPFC to elicit emotional responses that might occur based on the outcome of the decision
Stanford Marshmallow Experiment
presented children with the choice to either have one treat right now or two treats if they waited until the experimenter returned 15 minutes later. The researchers tracked down the original children as adolescents and found that their cognitive performance and ability to cope with frustration and stress were positively correlated with their ability to wait for the second marshmallow.
Stanford Marshmallow Experiment follow-up experiments in adults
Those who had been able to delay gratification as kids showed lower levels of aggression and rejection by peers as well as reduced drug use as adults. 40 years later, those who resisted the marshmallow had higher PFC activity on no-go trials
Watts et al., 2018 interpretation of the Stanford Marshmallow Experiment results
found that the original marshmallow experiments could mostly be accounted for by family background, intelligence, and home environment
nudge theory
an approach to behavioural modifications in which conditions of the environment are used to influence behaviour and decision-making
example of nudge theory
default or opt-out choice framing as opposed to opt-in
when do consumers choose renewable energy options more?
when it was the default choice
partisan nudge bias
people tended to favour the idea of nudges as long as they agreed with the policy or behaviour the nudge was meant to encourage
bilateral amygdala damage and loss aversion
Lacked loss aversion on gambling task (likely because it removes a fear of poor outcomes)
reasoning
a thought process that brings an individual to a conclusion
what happens when we are unaware of inductive reasoning?
it can become a heuristic
inductive reasoning involves
applying learned rules to new situations
inductive reasoning is the basis of
most learning
example of a valid syllogism
all A are B, all B are C, therefore all A are C
types of syllogisms
- all statements
- negative statements
- some statements
omission bias
Biased thought that withholding is not as bad as doing
example of omission bias
the trolley problem
falsification principle
you need to look for situations that would falsify a rule
familiarity effects
we are better at solving logical problems that involve our prior knowledge
familiarity effects experiment
If a person is drinking a beer (P), then the person is over 21 years old (Q). Cards have age on one side and beverage on the other side. Which cards do you need to flip to verify this statement?
75% of people can solve this task (significantly more than the more abstract version) demonstrating that we incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning
