Chapter 12: Judgement, Decision Making, and Reasoning Flashcards
what is judgement?
assumption made about a characteristic
“he isn’t athletic or good enough”
what is reasoning?
process of drawing a logical conclusions of the judgement
what is decision making?
the process of choosing between alternatives
what do we rely on to make quick judgements
experience
what is a representative heuristic
an instance that resembles a category is seen as a likely member of that category
what is a heuristic?
common guidelines that save us time when making decisions
used for quick decisions
ex. I don’t eat seafood at buffets
I always get gat at 1/4 of a tank
I always buy the generic medicine
what is an example of a representative heuristic
1: Are we talking about a librarian or a farmer?
a man wears glasses, speaks quietly, and reads a lot
we probably will interpret him as a librarian even though statistically it is more likely he is a farmer
2: A Centre student is wearing a Vermont hat, so we assume they are most likely from Vermont, even though statistically it’s more likely they’re from Kentucky
what are illusionary correlations
connections between two things that don’t really exist
representative heuristics rely on…
stereotypes
what is a base rate?
the numerical odds that something is X category
the actual proportion of the population
ex. -there are 20x more male farmers than male librarians
-a Centre student is 500x more likely to be from Kentucky than Vermont
what is the availability heuristic?
events that come to mind easier are judged as more probably
- if it comes to mind, we must have had exposure to it (see abt/hear abt)
- If we have exposure to it, it must be common
what is an illustrative example of the availability heuristic?
you ask two people is homelessness is an issue in the US. Person 1 is from North Dakota and Person 2 is from Washington D.C.
Person 1 is going t say no because there isn’t a very large homeless population in N.D. therefore they aren’t exposed to it, but Person 2 is going to think it’s a huge issue because they see it all the time.
Lichtenstein (1978)
Participants judged lethal events
-58% viewed tornados as mor dangerous than asthma even though asthma is 20x more deadly
-83% viewed pregnancy as more dangerous than appendicitis even though appendicitis is 2x more deadly
the biggest predictors of risk are:
-someone you knew died (r=.90)
-someone you heard of died (r=.85)
-someone you knew was injured (r=.52)
tornados and pregnancy are very news worthy events, asthma and appendicitis are not
when we add these events together :
have experience + know someone + heard of someone = very common
as a result we have a poor judgement of actual base rates
ex. YA cancer rates
what are the 4 main things we use to make decisions
- expected utility
- personality and emotions
- context
- presentation
expected utility in decision making
aka investment
if given all possible information, decisions should be rational
(the choice that results in gaining the most X)
but…people are not rational
(ex. gambling)
Denes-Raj (1994)
participants gambled $1 for a chance to win $7 if they pulled a red jellybean
(they could bet a total of 5 times)
choose 1 of 2 scenarios;
1. one red in a bowl of white
2. 7 red in a bowl of 93 white
1 red in a bowl of 9:
-10 in 100 (higher utility)
-only 15% choose this option every time
7 red in a bowl of 93
-7 in 100 (lower utility)
-85% chose this option at lease once
-75 chose this option everytime
shows that people do not always act rationally
personality and emotion in decision making
some people naturally take more risks
(optimistic v. pessimistic prediction of outcome)
influenced by current mood
(incidental emotions and expected emotions)
what are incidental emotions
current mood
what are expected emotions
future mood
Eren (2008)
study of incidental emotions
307 judges and 8,228 cases
found a relationship between LSU football outcomes and the length of sentences by Louisiana judges the week after
how do expected emotions influence our decision making
we make decisions based on how we feel about the outcome
-if I don’t at least try, Ill be mad at myself later (take risk)
-I’ll regret this in the morning (don’t take risk)
Kermer (2006)
study of expected emotions
participants performed a gambling task
-predicted how happy they would be winning or losing (p+ or p-)
-others rated how happy they actual were after the actual outcome (a+ or a-)
found we overinflate our expected emotions
Gilbert (1998)
asked professors how they would feel if they didn’t get tenured (aka fired)
on a 1-7 scale (4 being neutral)
-p+=5.9
-a+=5.24
a-=4.71
p-=3.42
explaining procrastination
negative valence weighting bias and poor self control
what is the valence weighting bias?
the extent to which we assume something will make us feel good or bad
if it is negative we procrastinate
self control and procrastination
if low, we are less likely to see past our initial negativity
Tversky (1991)
Predicting Outcomes
-50/50 bet: win $200 or lose $100
(high utility bet)
-participants would not take the bet
9losing seems disproportionately awful compared to winning
-we underestimate our ability to cope with loss
Risk Aversion
how does context impact our decision making?
our decisions depend on the other choices currently available
“you’ll be happy with chips but not if there if free pizza available”
what is overchoice?
aka choice paralysis
having more than 2 similar options makes choice difficult
requires compromise
ex. the cheesecake factor restaurant menu
Simonson (1992)
participants were asked to choose which camera they would purchase
-if only shown a low and mid camera: 50% chose low, 50% chose mid
-if shown low, mid, and high: 22% low, 57% mid, 21% high
why? Your perception changes from “this is baseline and this is an upgrade” to
this is the shitty cheap one and these two are the value choice and the nice choice”
what is the status quo bias?
the tendency to not change when given the option to
ex. organ donor registration
why is organ donor registration used as an example of the status quo bias?
countries (US) with opt IN to donate have a 60% donor rate
countries with an opt OUT of donation have a 99% donation rate
what is the framing effect (slovic 2000)
showed psychiatrists a case file and asked if they would discharge
-told: “20% of similar patients have been violent when discharged”
-result: 59% discharged
-told: “ total data suggests there is a 20% likelihood they will be violent”
-result: 79% discharged
what is an example of how presentation impacts decision making?
the ultimatum game:
2 participants need to split $10
-proposer: proposes how much money each should get
(maybe 50/50, could be 90/10)
-responder: chooses to accept or reject the proposition. if they reject it, neither participant gets any money
Highest utility is…
p-90/10 split
r-accept always
Sanfrey (2003)
participants played the responder in the ultimatum game while win fMRI
-played against human proposers and computer proposers
-rejected human offers more than computer offers
what is the anterior insula cortex?
the emotional processing and reasoning
-fairness, trust and resentment
shows activity during decision
-more insula activity when rejecting offer (inequity)
what is inequity aversion
-the insula responds to inequity
-human unfairness if processed as more inequitable
inequity led to a reprioritization of fairness over utility
-fairness impulse
Knoch (2006)
performed the ultimatum game during transcranial mental stimulation which limited right prefrontal cortex activity
-during unfair offers: (not 50/50)
participants accepted more unfair offers during tms, but the offers were still rated as unfair during tms use
the right PFC causes the fairness impulse
what is value judgement
functional value
monetary value
social value
psychological value
what is functional value?
ie. shoes
something that provides a function
what is monetary value
ie. gold
something that can be exchanged
what is social value
ie. fashionable items
something that gives social access
what is psychological value?
ie. something sentimental
something that allows for expression
