9.2 Portfolio Risk and Return: Part 2 Flashcards
A key principle of capital market theory is
in order to generate higher returns, investors must be willing to tolerate greater risk
Capital market theory assumes homogeneity of expectations
meaning that all investor have the same economic expectations about investment characteristics such as prices, cash flows, and discount rates for all assets.
If this assumption holds, all investors will conduct the same analysis, which should produce the same optimal portfolios of risky assets.
If a market is informationally efficient
prices reflect all publicly available information and provide unbiased estimates of future discounted cash flows.
Under such conditions, assets will earn their consensus required rate of return and investors have no incentive to seek excess returns.
Investors who believe in market efficiency will adopt a passive approach, simply buying and holding the market portfolio.
The market risk premium can be calculated as
the difference between the expected return on the market portfolio and a proxy for the risk-free rate, such as the yield on short-term US Treasury bills.
The capital market line (CML)
simply a capital allocation line with the risky portfolio being the market portfolio.
Graphically, it is the line tangent to the efficient frontier constructed from all available risky assets
Systematic risk (also called non-diversifiable risk or market risk)
It includes risks like interest rates and economic cycles that cannot be avoided
Nonsystematic risk
also called company-specific, industry-specific, or diversifiable risk.
Diversification can reduce or even eliminate nonsystematic risk.
total variance
systematic variance + nonsystematic variance
A return-generating model
estimates the expected return of a given security
Multi-factor models
allow for more than one variable.
The factors could be macroeconomic, fundamental, or statistical, although statistical variables that have no macroeconomic or fundamental meaning are usually discarded
The three-factor model
created by Fama and French
includes factors for sensitivity to market risk as well as for company size and style (growth vs. value)
Carhart’s four-factor model
includes the same factors that appear in the Fama and French model and adds a momentum factor.
A single-index model
generated return expectations using an asset’s sensitivity to a market index as the only factor.
Because of its simplicity, the single-index model can be used to create the capital market line (CML
The market model
the most common implementation of the single-index model.
It is similar to the single-index model, but it allows for an easier estimation of beta.
Beta
measures the sensitivity of an asset’s return to the market return
it is the covariance between the security return and the market return divided by the market variance.
A positive beta indicates the asset return will move with the market
The capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
simply the single-index model
It emphasizes beta as the primary determinant of a security’s expected return.
Assumptions of the CAPM
- Investors are risk-averse, utility-maximizing, and rational individuals
- Markets are frictionless – no taxes or transaction costs
- All investors plan for same single holding period
- Investors have homogeneous expectations
- Investments are infinitely divisible
- Investors are price takers
The security market line (SML)
constructed with beta on the horizontal axis and expected return on the vertical axis
The slope is the market risk premium
the SML applies to any security, not just efficient portfolios
The security market line also applies to a portfolio of securities
Theoretical Limitations of the CAPM
- It is a single-factor model that only includes beta risk.
- It is a single-period model that does not consider multi-period implications of decisions.