4. voting behaviour and the media

Question 1

what determines how people vote

Answer 1

• primacy factors
• recency factors

Question 2

primacy factors

Answer 2

• long term factors
• eg class, age, ethnicity, gender

Question 3

recency factors

Answer 3

• short term
• eg election campaign, policies, debates, party leaders

Question 4

core voter theory

Answer 4

people who vote the same in each election, after reflecting a strong allegiance towards a particular party
⬇️
sociological factors
⬇️
long term voting behaviour

Question 5

swing/floating voter theories

Answer 5

people who change each election, with few or no long term voting loyalties (partisan dealignment)
⬇️
rational choice theory
⬇️
short term behaviour

Question 6

voting behaviour theories

Answer 6

• sociological factors
• party alignment theory
• dominant ideology
• rational choice theory
• voter context

Question 7

party alignment theory

Answer 7

• people will vote according to a party loyalty
• this may be one they have inherited from their parents

Question 8

voter context

Answer 8

• current events and issues determine how people vote
• eg the response to covid, scandals, cost of living crisis

Question 9

rational choice theory

Answer 9

• can be either long term or short term
• what do they need at the moment: whose policies best in line with those ideas, this can be according to region or context
• people vote according to what will benefit them

Question 10

dominant ideology

Answer 10

• people will feel an affinity to an ideology
• this sways their voting behaviour or decision
• eg party leaders or media
• eg the brexit referendum and the right wing media bias

Question 11

which social class do the conservatives generally get support from

Answer 11

• the A, B and C1 classes
• ie upper and middle class
• in 1964, they won 78% of support from classes A and B

Question 12

which social classes do labour generally get support from

Answer 12

• social classes D and E
• ie the working class
• in 1964, they got 64% of support from classes D and E

Question 13

since the 1970s, class based voting has become more unpredictable

Answer 13

• partisan dealignment: voters are abandoning their party loyalties to vote more according to core issues, self interest and the competence of the government
• thatcher based her 1979 campaign to start in labour voting, working class Cardiff
• she promised to help ease economic issues and face strikers which swung 9% of support away from DE voters
• Blair also broadened the appeal of labour in 1997 as did Corbyn and May is subsequent elections
• therefore, arguably, class is less of a long term voting factor than it used to be

Question 14

traditionally labour voting areas

Answer 14

• cities and urban areas
• london
• the north (‘the red wall’)
• South Wales (old mining cities)
• Manchester
• Tyne and Wear
• typically industrial places

Question 15

traditionally conservative voting regions

Answer 15

• middle England
• south west
• coastal areas
• south east
• north east rural areas, eg Northumberland

Question 16

traditionally lib dem voting regions

Answer 16

• harder to pin point due to FPTP
• generally, rural wales
• some support in the south west
• Scotland (non conformist artisans)

Question 17

traditionally Green Party voting areas

Answer 17

Brighton

Question 18

Scotland

Answer 18

• traditionally labour territory
• in 1997, the conservatives didn’t win any seats in Scotland
• however, the rise of the SNP has changed the landscape
• in 2015, the SNP won 56/59 seats in Scotland
• Scottish conservatives are having a comeback under ruth davis and are now the second largest party there

Question 19

London

Answer 19

• the conservatives struggle in london due to the cost of housing, reducing the wealth of its inhabitants
• made worse since brexit as Londoners mostly voted to remain
• london is multi cultural and seen as progressive which is more in line with labour

Question 20

party dealignment in general means that geographical voting is less prominent

Answer 20

• eg the break up of the ‘red wall’ in 2019 due to support for Johnson’s brexit deal
• however, labour won Canterbury in 2019 after it had been conservative for 100 years

Question 21

age

Answer 21

• 63% of 18-24 year olds voted labour and 27% voted conservative
• 25% of 65+ year olds voted labour and 61% voted conservative
• traditionally, the conservatives get a lot of support from the older generations
• Conservative party represents strong, stable, traditional and safe taglines
• these are more appealing to older people with traditional views and who want economic security
• labour/lib dem/green: are more progressive, sharing wealth, optimism on climate change and global aid
• ‘for the many not the few’
• however, young people are still much less likely to vote even if a party appeals to them
• in 2017, turnout amongst 18-24 year olds was 54% and for 65+ it was 71%
• both parties are most successful when they reach beyond their core voters, in regards to age
• eg Blair 1997 and Thatcher 1979

Question 22

ethnicity

Answer 22

• immigrant communities were generally within C2, D and E social classes
• they were more likely to vote labour because of its high spending in the welfare state and its close association with the trade union movement
• labour introduced the first race relations acts in 1965, 1968 and 1976 to outlaw discrimination and their commitment to multiculturalism further provided a strong, historical connection with immigrant communities
• the influence of enoch powell’s ‘rivers of blood’ speech (1968) called for an end to commonwealth immigration
• on some element within the Conservative party, there has been hostility towards immigrant communities
• in the 2017 general election, corbyn’s empathy for immigrants contributed to labour winning 49/73 seats in Greater London, where 45% of the population in white british

Question 23

education

Answer 23

• those with higher educational qualifications comprise of the top social brackets and have traditionally been more likely to vote conservative
• however, in 2017, there was a change in voting patterns, with the conservatives increasingly gaining support among those in the lower social brackets with the fewest qualifications
• this could be anomalous or be part of a long term terms, in which the conservatives have aligned themselves with stricter controls on immigration thereby increasing their support among the white working class voters who felt threatened by globalisation (in the brexit referendum)
• labour’s more liberal approach to immigration and it’s more nuanced view in brexit have dramatically increased its support among the better educated cosmopolitan ‘remain’ voters
• in the 2017 general election, 48% of people with a degree or higher voted labour and 33% voted conservative
• 32% of people who voted labour had no qualifications and 52% voted conservative

Question 24

gender

Answer 24

• from 1945 to the 1980s, labour’s close association with male dominated trade unions and its reputation for allowing inflation to spiral, thus cutting family finances provided the conservatives with an opportunity to appeal to the housewives vote
• in the 1959 general election, Macmillan associated conservative prosperity and stability with a happy family life
• in 1980, heath defeated Wilson by pledging to reduce the cost living thereby winning significant support among housewives
• in 1979, thatcher similarly articulated women’s concerns that a labour government has allowed inflation to undermine family finances and that irresponsible trade unionism was pulling society apart
• in the 2017 general election,
  conservative ~ 44% male, 45% female; labour ~ 40% male, 42% female; Lib Dems ~ 7% male, 8% female

Question 25

how does political context affects how people vote

Answer 25

through governing competence and issue based voting

Question 26

rational choice theory

Answer 26

• rational choice begins with the assumption that humans are rational beings who are governed by self interest
• rational choice theory is founded on the belief that we all have specific/responsible goals and as individuals behave in a way it make decisions that best enables us to achieve these goals
• self unrest is egoistic as it assumes we don’t act for the benefit of others
• the specific interests of individual voters vary
• voters assess parties based on self intrest

Question 27

governing competency

Answer 27

• the extent to which the government is regarded as having been capable and competent
• if viewed negatively, the public will usually vote for change as a result
• this can be used positively to seek re election or negatively as a way of challenging the incumbent

Question 28

1958 general election (positive)

Answer 28

• competency can be used by a party to help win electoral success
• macmillan won a 100 hundred seat majority over Hugh gaitskill in the 1958 election using the tagline ‘you’ve never had it this good!’
• it was effective as it emphasised the economic prosperity of the current conservative government

Question 29

1983 general election

Answer 29

• unemployment remained high however thatcher brought inflation down, unified her cabinet and was deemed to be acting as a strong leader in the falklands conflict
• they used this reputation of competence to comfortably win re-election

Question 30

1964 general election

Answer 30

• Alec Douglas home had a short lived conservative government that had not distanced itself from the scandals of the previous one under macmillan
• eg the Profumo affair, macmillan sacking a third of his cabinet in one go in desperation (they were going to revolt)
• used by labour leader Wilson to claim the public had wasted with the the conservatives

Question 31

1979 general election

Answer 31

• the Labour Party were accused of letting strikes run out of hand and of the economy stalling
• high unemployment used by the Conservative party in the campaign
• Callaghan’s time as a labour PM was deemed as ‘the winter of discontent’

Question 32

issue based voting

Answer 32

• in 1983, housing was a very important issue as thatcher has allowed many people to buy their council homes which worked in her favour in terms of voting behaviour
• in 2015, immigration was the seen as the most topical issue with UKIP seeing a rise in fortune
• in 2017, brexit was the most important issue for many voters and in 2019, this helped explain the break up of the ‘red wall’
• in the 1997 election, Blair got an 11% swing in AB voters even though his windfall tax policy would affect them the most
• it seems that they were more angered by Major’s perceived incompetence that they were Blair’s tax

Question 33

short term influences, especially the person’s qualities and appeal of party leaders have become more important in shaping electoral outcomes

Answer 33

because of partisan dealignment and the personalisation of politics (emphasised by tv debates and political parties in their campaign)

Question 34

50 years ago, it didn’t matter how a party looked on tv, but in the present day it is important

Answer 34

• parties therefore choose leaders who can charm voters by appearing relaxed and genial on tv
• if a party leader lacks natural charm there must be something else for the voters to admire
• eg thatcher: remarkable qualities of leadership, tough, determined, focused and resilience
• absence of leadership quality worked against Micheal foot (who was seen as aloof and eccentric) when up against thatcher

Question 35

thatcher, blair and brown

Answer 35

• thatcher was deemed as the Iron Lady which gave her the persona of someone tough and decisive
• she lacked common touch and charisma of Blair but demonstrated strength and resilience
• on the flip side, Gordon brown was gaffe prime and seen as lacking Blair’s charisma

Question 36

leaders of the opposition can hinder the successs of a party

Answer 36

• eg Ed milliband, neil kinnock
• party leaders do have impact on how people vote to an extent, especially with the increasing importance of social media and tv
• however, a leader can have negative public approval ratings but actually be seen to developer the goods
• eg thatcher and arguably nigel farage for the brexit party
• yougov in 2017 found that 50% of the electorate thought may would make a better PM than Corbyn and yet Corbyn increased labour’s share of the vote by 4.6%

Question 37

examples that campaigns have a big impact on voting behaviour

Answer 37

• John major (1992) abandoned stage managed appearances and instead took his soapbox to the streets, kinnock looked less in touch with people and consequently major won an expected victory
• nick clegg (2010) had a strong tv presence which helped to create a hung parliament and gave the Lib Dems the opportunity to create a coalition government
• liberal leader Jeremy Thorpe (1974) explores the discontent for the two major parties and increased the liberal share of the vote by 11.8%
• Corbyn (2017) successfully connected with young voters by appearing at festivals/events and promising to scrap tuition fees which contrasted with may’s performance leading to more labour seats in parliament

Question 38

examples of how campaigns have limited influence

Answer 38

• Edward heath’s campaign (1970) was criticised by his on Conservative party for being uninspiring, they planned to sack him as leader after the election, except he ended up winning the election
• may’s campaign (2017) was heavily criticised but the conservatives increased their share of the vote by the same amount as thatcher had done in 1983
• Neil kinnock (1987) led the Labour Party with an energetic and modern campaign but still lost to thatcher
• Harold Wilson (1964) was supposed to be a British jfk with a great presence but he still failed to increase labour’s share of the vote by very much

Question 39

a successful campaign should

Answer 39

• present opportunities for a candidate to connect with as many people as possible
• show off the candidates charisma/personality in the best way
• use a variety of media platforms
• be well managed
• not be london centric
• have a catchy campaign slogan/song/advertising

Question 40

the manifesto

Answer 40

• the following examples led to defeat
• 1987 labour manifesto didn’t commit to a nuclear deterrent and was savaged by the conservatives for making Britain vulnerable
• 1992 labour manifesto committed to increasing public spending which the conservatives spun to mean more taxes
• in 2017, labour hugely boosted their votes through promising to get rid of tuition fees in their manifesto

Question 41

media influence on the outcome of elections

Answer 41

• the us has free press so newspapers can hold political positions and take sides
• in contrast, uk broadcasters, whether publicly or privately, owned are legally required to be impartial
• in the us, the 1st amendment rights to free speech allows broadcasters to be highly partisan
• conservative critics of the bbc argue that it is not impartial and controlled by a liberal metropolitan elite which is out of touch with the concerns of real people
• however, the electoral dominance of the Conservative party over the last century coupled with the leave victory in the 2016 referendum suggests that if the bbc does ha e a left wing bias, this has not had a dramatic impact on voting behaviour
• bias is not the same as influence

Question 42

votes by newspaper readership (2017 general election)

Answer 42

• telegraph: 79% voted conservative, 12% voted labour
• guardian: 8% voted conservative, 73% voted labour
• the times: 50% voted conservative, 14% voted Lib Dem, 24% voted labour

Question 43

is the British media unfair

Answer 43

• most newspapers are owned by wealthy individuals who are pro conservative and anti labour
• eg the sun, sky news and Fox News are owned by Rupert murdock
• all of those media outlets have a right wing bias

Question 44

‘it’s the sun wot won it’

Answer 44

• the sun’s influence on the 1992 election has often been quoted as benign proof of the media’s influence on electoral outcome
• polls had been suggesting a narrow labour victory or a hung parliament
• the sun relentlessly mocked kinnock and pushed for John major
• major won a surprise victory
• ‘if kinnock wins today will the last person to leave britan please turn out the lights’

Question 45

the sun is inconsistent in their support

Answer 45

• they seemingly back the candidate with the best chance of winning
• in the 1997 election, they backed labour
• ‘the sun backs Blair’
• however 12 years later, they go back to slandering labour when it becomes clear the brown will lose the next election
• ‘labour’s lost it’

Question 46

declining readership of newspapers

Answer 46

• can raise questions on how much influence they actually have
• the sun backed conservative in the 2015 election, in 1997 they had 3.9m readers and in 2016 they had 1.8m
• the express backed ukip in the 2015 election, they had 1.2m readers in 1997 and 0.41m in 2016

Question 47

there is no definitive answer to the question for does the media influence elections

Answer 47

• circulation has been in decline for years
• many people now read newspapers online
• tv and radio take up strikes that have broken in the papers and journalists are often interviewed in other media
• tv still dominates media for coverage elections
• 9.5m people watched the leaders debate in 2010 and 7m in the 2015 campaign

Question 48

the Overton window

Answer 48

the range of political ideas that are considered acceptable in general public discussion

Question 49

the role of social media

Answer 49

• 50% of 18-24 year olds claimed that social media had influences them, whereas only 28% had been influenced by newspapers and magazines
• the conservatives depend £1.2m in social media advertising in the 2015 campaign
• labour used more that 1,200 different social media adverts to micro target specific groups
• it’s campaign group momentum created viral content
• these may explain the surge in the youth vote with a high turnout of 58% and 63% of 18-29 year olds voting labour
• during the 2014 scottish independence referendum, the #indyref sparked thousands of discussions on twitter, contributing to the 85% turnout

Question 50

context for the 1979 election

Answer 50

• the economy has had a disastrous decade: inflation, cost of living crisis, fuel crisis
• big divide between what the youth and the old people were doing
• trade unions were running riot under the labour government
• there were strikes, power cuts and rubbish piled on the streets
• it was clear that the conservatives would win anyway as the strikes and discontent were too big of issues to ignore

Question 51

leadership in the 1979 election

Answer 51

• labour incumbent: James Callaghan
• he had been under fire for the ‘winter of discontent’
• it had been a minority government which had relied on support from other parties to survive
• Callaghan had failed to control the strikes, rubbish and bodies piled as a result
• conservative challenger: Margret Thatcher
• she was a promising politician who had risen up the ranks with a frank and practical style
• she appeared strong, sharply dressed and a polished speaking style

Question 52

the media in the 1979 election

Answer 52

• they played a significant role showing images of a miserable strike bound nation
• when Callaghan returned from an international summit, he dismissed questions from a journalist about issues at home
• the sun accused him of being out of touch with the headline ‘crisis, what crisis?’
• the election was triggered by a vote of no confidence in the government after the nationalist parties withdrew support for the government following referendums on Welsh and Scottish devolution
• this was used by the media against Callaghan

Question 53

manifestos in the 1979 election

Answer 53

• conservative manifesto: not as radical as later thatcher manifestos
• contained a pledge to cut inflation
• talked about some privatisation
• fairly safe bit more focused on dealing with the strikes
• labour manifesto: Callaghan was a centre right member of the Labour Party and a social democrat
• he was under pressure fo make the manifesto more ‘left’ by his own party
• he pledged to cut inflation which was then at 25%
• he didn’t mention what he was going to do about the strikes

Question 54

context for the 1997 election

Answer 54

• Brit pop was big
• ‘cool Britannia’ image of fashion and social circles
• economically, the country has been hit badly by ‘black Wednesday’ in 1992
• the conservatives had been in power since 1979 and the Labour Party had been struggling to compete until Blair was elected party leader in 1994

Question 55

leadership for the 1997 election

Answer 55

• John Major: incumbent and Conservative party leader
• steady, competent reputation but not charismatic, seen as grey
• corroded for badly handling the economic fallout of ‘black Wednesday’
• scandals and sleaze had engulfed the party affairs (major had also been a part of it)
• Tony Blair: young, visionary, not experienced in government
• good public speaker
• seen as new and exciting
• introduced with Gordon Brown (❤️) and Peter Mandelson the idea of ‘new labour’ which was a more moderate, all encompassing Labour Party
• had young family, enjoyed britpop and football - was in touch with the youth of Britain

Question 56

manifestos for the 1997 election

Answer 56

• abandoning the traditional labour focus on nationalisation, the new labour manifesto promised to balance socialism with progressivism and capitalism
• Blair promised to:
• reduce the size of primary school classes
• cut hospital waiting lists
• introduce constitutional reform, especially devolution (this made it easier for Lib Dem supporters to vote tactically for labour in marginal seats where their own candidates could not win, thought to have maybe added 30 seats to labour’s total)

Question 57

campaign for the 1997 election

Answer 57

• new labour’s campaign was slick, helped by Alistair Campbell and Peter Mandelson who both had experience in advertising and media
• the posters had the tagline ‘because Britain deserves better’
• labour had a very focused election campaign which targeted marginal seats
• however, it’s vote share increased by 12.5% on average in seats it targeted but by 13.4% in seats in neglected
• overall, the campaign didn’t need to be as good as it was as the conservatives were so unpopular and failed to energise a strong campaign
• they were mainly focused on making Blair’s new ideas look scary or dangerous

Question 58

the media in the 1997 election

Answer 58

• the sun threw its weight behind Blair despite traditionally supporting the Conservatives
• Blair and his team used the media to their advantage when campaigning
• Major was hammered on the program ’splitting image’ which didn’t help challenge his grey image

Question 59

result of the 1997 election

Answer 59

• biggest ever labour landslide
• 418 seats to labour
• 165 seats to conservative

Question 60

context for the 2017 election

Answer 60

• was a snap election held in June
• one year after the brexit referendum and pressure was on to secure a strong mandate to deliver a brexit deal
• the country is still divided and angry post referendum
• the young population feel angered by the weight of the decisions and the impact of older voters
• trump was recently elected in the us; a feeling that we were returning to traditional conservatism
• 2 serious terror attacks that year: one one London Bridge in march and one in the Manchester arena in May

Question 61

leadership for the 2017 election

Answer 61

• incumbent: Theresa May, Cameron’s successor
• she was an old school conservative with traditional family views and a steady approach to government
• she had extensive experience and was former Home Secretary
• labour challenger: Jeremy Corbyn
• unexpected leader of the party, he was very left, traditional socialist values and controversial track record in Europe
• he had previously stated sympathy for nationalist causes, such as Palestinian and Irish independence, which led to critics labelling him as a ‘terrorist sympathiser’
• very popular with younger voters

Question 62

manifesto for the 2017 election

Answer 62

labour:
- exciting, progressive and focused on change
- eg scrapping tuition fees, putting brexit to the people, making childcare more affordable and extensive
- delivered with panache and enthusiasm
conservative:
- the incredibly unpopular dementia tax was u turned with no real acknowledgment
- social care package outlined with no explanation on how it will be afforded
- delivery was monotonous and uninspired
- reintroduce fox hunting

Question 63

campaign for the 2017 election

Answer 63

• May’s campaign was a complete disaster
• it was presidential style, but with a candidate who hated media interviews
• with huge poll leads at the start of the campaign, it was quickly decided that May should not take part in anything as risky as a TV debate with her main challenger, Jeremy Corbyn
• that decision backfired when Corbyn decided to take part in a seven way debate with other party leaders
  – he did not make a big deal of her absence, but everybody else on the stage did, making him look respectable
• Caroline Lucas (of the green party) said: “you don’t say it’s the most important election of our lifetime and not be bothered to show up”

Question 64

the media in the 2017 election

Answer 64

• May was mocked and ridiculed by the media for her awkward persona and mis-judged photo opportunities
• vira memes were made of her on social media which undermined her influence making her seem as a less credible candidate
• the print media mocked her for the over use of the ‘strong and stable’ mantra
• Corbyn although not Blair-like in demeanour, appeared confident and comfortable in his approach
• he was incredibly popular on social media, especially with young people

Question 65

2017 election result

Answer 65

• conservative win
• minority government