11 Risk Flashcards

1
Q

Risk Management Processes

A
Plan -P
Identify -P
Qualitative Risk Analysis -P
Quantitative Risk Analysis -P
Plan Responses -P
Implement -E 
Monitor Risks -M
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2
Q

Risk Management Overview

A

Projects are always risky, should be controlled and intentional manner to create value

Balance risk and reward

1) Individual Project Risk
2) Overall Project Risk

Uncertain event or condition that has a positive or negative effect on objectives

Risk highest at the beginning (max uncertainty)

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3
Q

Risk: Trends and Emerging Practices

A

Taking care of all risks

Non-event risks: uncertain future events may occur

  • Variability Risk: above or below target, good/bad weather
  • Ambiguity Risk: what might happen in the future (tech advances, etc)

Project Resilience - unknowable unknowns

Integrated risk management - risk managed as an organization

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4
Q

Risk: Tailoring considerations

A
Project size ($, scope, duration)
Project complexity (innovation? outside dependencies?)
Project Importance (critical for org.?)
Development approach (waterfall (predictive) - linear or adaptive (agile) - iterations)
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5
Q

Plan Risk Management Process

A

Planning

define how to conduct risk management activities

Done once or at key points

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6
Q

Plan Risk Inputs

A
PC
PMP (all components)
Proj Doc
- Stakeholder register
EEF/OPA
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7
Q

Plan Risk Outputs

A

Risk Management Plan

  • risk strategy
  • methodology
  • roles and responsibility
  • funding
  • timing
  • risk categories
  • stakeholder risk appetite
  • definitions of risk probability and impacts
  • Prob and impact matrix
  • Reporting formats
  • Tracking
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8
Q

Identify Risks Process

A

Planning

identify individual and project risk and documenting characteristics

Source of risks?
Goal: document the risks and sources

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9
Q

Identify Risks Inputs

A
PMP
- requirements
- schedule
- cost 
-quality
- resource
- risk
-scope baseline
- cost baseline
Proj Docs
- assumption log
cost estimates
duration estimates 
issue log
LL
requirements documentation
Resource requirements
stakeholder register

Agreements
Procurement documentation
EEF/OPA

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10
Q

Identify Risks T/T

A
EJ
Data gathering
-brainstorming
-checklists
-interviews
Data Analysis
- RCA
- Assumption and constraint analysis
- SWOT analysis
- Document analysis
Interpersonal and team skills
- facilitation
Prompt lists
meeetings
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11
Q

Identify Risks Outputs

A
Risk Register *(key document)
Risk Report
Project doc updates
- Assumption log
- Issue log
- LL
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12
Q

Qualitative Risk Analysis Overview

A

prioritize individual project risks for further analysis or action. assess probability of occurrence and impact. What will be the impact?.
Focuses on high-priority risks

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13
Q

Qualitative Risk Analysis Inputs

A
PMP
- risk management plan
Proj Doc 
- Assumption log
- Risk register
- stakeholder register
EEF/OPA
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14
Q

Qualitative Risk Analysis T/T

A
EJ
Data gathering
- interviews
Data Analysis
- Risk data quality assessment
- Risk probability and impact assessment
- Assessment of other risk parameters
Interpersonal and team skills
- facilitation
Risk Categorization
Data Representation
- probability and impact matrix
- Hierarchical charts
Meetings
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15
Q

Qualitative Risk Analysis Outputs

A

Proj Doc update

  • assumption log
  • issue log
  • risk register
  • risk report
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16
Q

Quantitative Risk Analysis Overview

A

numerically analyzing the combined effect of identified individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty

Quantify the overall project risk exposure

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17
Q

Quantitative Risk Analysis Inputs

A
PMP
- risk management plan 
- scope baseline
- schedule baseline
- cost baseline
Project documents
- assumption log
- basis of estimates
- cost estimates
- cost forecasts
- duration estimates
- milestone list
- resource requirements
- risk register
- risk report
- schedule forecasts
EEF/OPA
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18
Q

Quantitative Risk Analysis T/T

A
EJ
Data gathering
- interviews
Interpersonal and team skills
- facilitation
Representations of uncertainty
Data analysis
- simulations
- sensitivity analysis (Tornado diagram)
- decision tree analysis
- influence diagrams
19
Q

Quantitative Risk Analysis Outputs

A

Proj Doc update

- risk report

20
Q

Plan Risk Responses Overview

A

developing options, selecting strategies and agreeing on actions to address risk exposure.

21
Q

Plan Risk Response Inputs

A
PMP
- resource management plan
- risk management plan
- cost baseline
documents
- LL
- schedule
- team assignments
- resource calendars
- risk register
- risk report
- stakeholder register
EEF/OPA
22
Q

Plan Risk Response T/T

A
EJ
Data gathering
- interviews
Interpersonal and team skills
- facilitation
Strategies for threats
Strategies for opportunities
Contingent response strategies
Strategies for overall project risk
Data analysis
- alternatives analysis
- cost-benefit analysis
Decision making
- multi criteria decision analysis
23
Q

Plan Risk Response Outputs

A
Change requests
PMP updates
- schedule
- cost
- quality
- resource
- procurement
- scope baseline
- schedule baseline
- cost baseline
document updates:
- assumption log
- cost forecasts
-LL
-schedule
-team assignments
-Risk register
-Risk report
24
Q

Implement risk responses Inputs

A
PMP
- risk management plan
Documents
- LL
- risk register
- risk report
OPA
25
Implement risk responses T/T
EJ Interpersonal and team skills - influencing PMIS
26
Implement risk responses Outputs
``` Change requests Doc updates - Issue - LL - Project team assignments - Risk register - Risk report ```
27
Monitor Risk inputs
``` PMP - Risk management plan Documents - Issue log - LL - risk register - risk report Work performance data Work performance reports ```
28
Monitor Risk T/T
``` Data analysis - technical performance analysis - reserve analysis Audits (how are you doing vs. The plan) Meetings ```
29
Monitor Risk Outputs
``` Work performance information change requests PMP updates document updates - assumption log - issue log - LL - risk register - risk report OPA ```
30
Risk management objectives
Increase the likelihood and impact of positive events Decrease likelihood and impact of negative events
31
Risk key concepts
Positive events = Opportunity, good risk Business risk = pos or neg risk Pure risk= just negative consequence Risk adverse= does not take risks Risk tolerance= degree of risk you’re willing to accept Risk threshold= level of risk that would need specific responses
32
Risk Categorization
External Internal Technical Project Management
33
Known risks (managed proactively)
Identified and analyzed Plan responses for the risks
34
Known Risk (unmanaged proactively)
Should be assigned a contingency reserve (money set aside)
35
Unknown risks
Assign a MANAGEMENT reserve Sponsor, upper management disperses (approves) not the PM
36
Issue
A risk that had come up ( it is now a risk!:
37
Key concepts
Uncertainties —> risks Constraints and assumptions Project creates value (balance risk and reward), avoid paralysis by analysis Risks of deviation —> project failure 2 levels 1. Individual 2. Overall project risk Negative -> avoid or mitigate Positive -> enhance chance
38
Output: Risk management plan
``` Risk strategy Methodology Roles and responsibilities Funding Timing Risk categories Stakeholder is appetite Definitions of risk probability and impacts Probability and impact matrix ```
39
RBS
Risk breakdown structure ``` Level 1: Technical risk Management risk Commercial risk External risk ``` Then breakdown to level 2
40
Prompt Lists
Predetermined Framework: PESTLE - political, economic, social, technology, legal, Environmental ....
41
Assessment of risk parameters
Pmbok 424
42
Strategies for threat
``` Escalate-outside of Scope/project, Avoid-0 Risk (ie change scope/strategy) Transfer- shift impact to a 3rd party Mitigate-reduce probability Accept- no proactive action taken (passive = document; active=est reserve) ```
43
Strategies for Opportunities
Escalate- outside scope or project Exploit- eliminate the uncertainty by making it happen (use new tech, good ppl) Share- some or all ownership to a 3rd party who can capture benefits Enhance- Identify and maximize key drivers to increase probability of it occurring Accept- take advantage, but not actively seeking it