1- Voting Behaviour And The Media Flashcards
Social/demographic long term factors
-age/generations
-social class/wealth
-job
-geographical region
-education
-gender
Political/rational short term
-media consumed
-echochamber- same type of news
-public image+ trust
-esp leaders
-past history
-major issues
Accountability
-politicians held to statements they have made or policies they have promised to the public or media
-helps to ensure politicians are honest
-eg. Partygae scandal involving boris johnson
pm held to account for breaking the covid lockdown rules he’d imposed
Coalition gov
-two or more parties work together in order to form a majority- therefore preventing a hung parliament
-Conservative-Liberal Democrats 2010-2015 under David Cameron and Nick Clegg
Constituency
-area of the country which holds one seat in parliment
-each constituency has one mp
-in uk 650 consttuences
-eg. Huntingdon- mp jonathon djanogly
Hung parliament
-party in power does not have a majority in parliament
-has less than 326MPs and doesnt form a coalition
-a hung parliamnt can lead to a minority gov being in control such as Theresa May’s gov in 2017 in which the conservatibes held 330 seats
Majority gov
-the winning party holds over half the majority of seats in parliament- 326 mps
-eg. Conservatives in 2019 had a majority of 80mps
-enables legislation to be passed more easily
Minority gov
-winning party has less than 326 mps
-resulting in hung parliament or a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement eg. Theresa may 2017-2019 who had c&a with DUPs
Mandate
-public gives permission for a party to govern thorugh that party winning an election
-gives gov right to itroduce policies stated in the manifesto as well as on issues that could not have been forseen or predictd when the manifesto was produced
eg. Covid lockdown rules not in manifesto but passed as had the mandate
Manifesto
-list of policies that a leadder or party had which they ‘promise’ to pass or try to pass if voted into power
-published before an election in order to clearly outline hwat an MP or party want to achieve and what they stand for.
-eg. In conservative’s 2019 manifesto- leave the eu in january, increase number of nurses in nhs to 50,000
Participation
-engagement of the public in the political process
-eg. Right to vote
-political participation levels can be measured by the number who vote in general elections
eg. In 2017 greater participation than in 2019 as 1.5% more of the popuation voted in 2019
Proportional representation
-electoral system in which the amount of seats awarded to a party is proportional to the number of votes cast for that party
-constituencies are irrelevant
-allow for smaller extremist parties to gain more power as more easy, eg NAZIs in Germany in the early 1930s- germany still uses PR
First-past-the-post
-uk system
-elect mps based on them winning the most votes within their respective constituencies
Representation
-role of MPs
-represent the views of their constituency
-eg. Central Devon- one of the most rural constuencies and so would want their MP to represnet views which reflect the wants of farmers for example
Social class turnout rates
2010
76% AB
57% DE
EXAMPLES of class less significant
1979- Margret Thatcher after ‘winter discontent’
Gained an additional
11% C2 voters 9% DE
2019 manual and non-manual labourers support labour both stoood at 30-35%
Stat for voters in north have strong preference for labour party
20017
53% labour
37% comservatiev
Why did conservatives win female vote 1979
-thatcher 1st female leader/candidate to become PM
-argued that high inflation under labour had damaged family finances
-fears that militant trade unionism was damaging the fabric of society
Why have female vote for conservatives diminished more recently
-labour greater focus on NHS and social carE
-Conservative party’s link to euroskepticism(men more likely to be- more vote brexit) and emphasis strong national defence
Why younger more likely to vote labour 2017
-‘for the. Many not he few’
Abolish tuition fees
Social justice and environment
Evidence of lack of influence of media
2017
Tabloids attacked corbyn but Labour still increased share of vote- increase seats by 30 from 2015
Class A
Upper middle class
Professional/higher managerial role
class b
Middle class
Professional—need degree
C1
Lower middle class
Skilled workers
C2
Sklled working classes
Electrician
Hairdresser
D
Working class
Unskilled
Factory worker
E
Unemployed or casual (Seasonal) worker
Traditional class voting
ABC1-conservatives
C2DE- labour
Example class alignment
1964 labour 64 DE
Conservatves 78 AB
Increase class dealignment- why
Clas dealignment- more middle class and affluent
-main parties adapt- thatcher working class, blair middle class
-other factors more important
Conservatives- geographical region
South east nd east anglia
Rural-farming
‘Posh’’ north eg. Cheshire
Labour- geographical region
London- young, more diverse and liberal
-northern cities, industrial
Working class eg. Manchester
Iib dem- geographical region
-lack concentrated support
-parts of north scotland and south west
Geographical region- important
Less so
2019- red wall
Red car never before voted. Conservtives
Gender and voting behavoir
-normally minimal diff
-often women esp older more conservative (eg. 1979 thatcher 47% c 35% l
-young women in 2017 vote lbour
18-24 73% labour
Education and voting behavoir
-traditionally higher qualifications more likely to be AB so vote conservatives
However less so -2017
Degree 48% labour
No qualifications 52% c
-linked to age and valence(brexit- more educated leave)
Age and votiing behavoir
-older more conservative- more about defence, law and order, want to conserve wealth
-younger-liberal and social jsutice- labour
Stat for age and voting
2017 62% labour 18-24
61% 65+ c
Age and education stat
1980 15% full time education post 18
2017-18 50.2% higher education
Age turnoit
71% 65+
54% 18-24
Ethniity and voting behavoir
BME vote labour
2017 65’% bme labour
21% c
-more likely to be low pay
-labour more likely to tackle unempkoyment
Turnoiut and ethnicity
2010
67%whute
51% BME
Rational choice theory
-individuals choose a course of action that is most in line with their personal preferences
-rather than beung staunchly committed to particular party or ideology
Valence
Linked to voters making decisions based on how well they think a particular party will perform in gov
Eg. Sucess or failure of gov policies
Instrumental voting
Voters want to vote focusing on issues that suit their narrow interests - often economic
-eg. Reducing tax
Expressive voting
Votes for whome good in the community is more important than own personal interests
Eg. Envirionmental concerns
Main short-term/valence issues considered
-competance of gov
-image and quality of party leadership
-quality of the campaign
-how united are the parties
-economy-how well run
-issues and manifesto promises
Competance of gov
More ‘swing voters’
Valence judgement used
How sucessful and competant before
Eg. 1979 winter of discontent led to to thatcher being bought in
Conservatives in 2019- appeared competant when got rid of may
Bring in boris- more charastmatic
Image and quality of party leadership
Esp. How media preset and how storng on tv debates
-eg. Public distrusted corbyn
Radical socialist-not for middle classes
1997-blair more charastmatic, youth, rolled up sleeves
Quality of the campaigns
-help to convince oters
-link to voters beliefs
-eg. Get brexut done
Memorable, travel around country, digger in wall
How unit ed are the parties
-voters trust united parties
1997- try party reputation blow as disjointed over europe- helped blair win new labour
Economy-how well run
Want gov with good economic policy
2010 after 2008- distrust in labour as inability to run economy
Issues and manifesto promises
Instrumental voting
Eg. Brexit deal, ‘leveling up’’
Corbyn controversial- private schools shut
What are opinion polls
Statistical research by asking a cross-section of people how they intend to vote in order to estimate levels of support for parties or issues
Examples when opinion polls inaccurate
2015 policy predicted both l and c 34% but instead c 37% and l 30%
Failure for 2017 hung parliament
Leave result in eu referendum
Why are opinion polls often inaccurate
-small sample size- 1,000-2,000
-may lie ‘shy tory’
-change mind
-diff to ask everyone- if in day- working person may not answer
Opinion polls should be controlled as they are too inaccurate- arguments for
-too big influence
-misleading when inaccrate
-should control in immediate run up to election day
Opinion polls should be cotrolled as too unreliable- against
-free wil
-people swing anyway -opinion poll may be minor factor
-education people on policies more than opinion polls
-responsibility of opinon poll companies to be more accurate
-still influential- regardlesswhen published
-otehr media sources are available
-limits freedom of speech if too controlling
Opinion polls should be controlled- too big influence
-shape rather than reflect how people vote
Errors in methods, representation
-eg. 2015- hung parliament
Led to conservative campaign focusing on the dangers of a labour/snp coalition at the expense of other issues
Opinion polls should be controlled-misleading when inaccurate
-remain preducted- some may vote leave as thought decision wouldn’t matter
-disincentivise people to vote at all-poor for democracy
Opinion polls shpild be controlled- in immediate run up to election
-at thhis time has esp high levels of influence
-media may sensationalise finding
-in other liberal democracies eg. Canada norway france- they have a leel of restrictions on publications of opinion poll data
1979 results
C majoiryty of 43 seats
C 339(up 62) 44%
L 269(down 50 37%
Liberals 11(down 2) 14%
Results 1997
L majority of 179 seats
L 418 (up145) 43%
C 165(down 178) 31%
Ld 46(up28) 17%
1979 campaign
-valence- l failure
Inability to control trade union power
Failure to control inflation
Control unemploywment
Positive press helped
Reasons for thatchers sucess in 1979- social
By 1979 class dealignment- siwng to conservatives
41% C2. 11%up
34% DE 9% up
Reasons for thatchers sucess in 1979-rational choice
More becoming floatng voters
Reasons for thatchers sucess in 1979-issues
-more popular policies esp economy
-both moderate manifestos
-buyt conservatives- return nationalised companies to private
-decreasei n rrade union power
Instrumental botung
Reasons for thatchers sucess in 1979- leader
1979- james callaghan ‘’sunny jim’
More popular
But thatcher seen as a more effective pm- despite declined invitation to participate in tv debate
Reasons for thatchers sucess in 1979-competant party
Labour
Increasingly divided, apeared lost contrl of events and economu
Callaghan had a minority gov- suggesting. More commons defeats
-election triggered by a vote of no confidence in his gov
Reasons for thatchers sucess in 1979- who best manage economy
1978+79- winter of discontent
Series of strikes
Toll on economic reputation of labour
Reasons for thatchers sucess in 1979- media
-thatcher and conservatives ran a more ‘modern’ campaign
Photoopertuism- holding cow when visit farm or holding shopping
-media presented depressed britain, paralysed by strikes
-sun front page ‘crisis?what crisis:’- suggesting that Callaghan was in denail about strikes
1997 campaign
-press secretary- alister campbell
-tony blair presented as young charasmatic leader with popular porgressuve centre-left policies
-campaign focused on contrast blair and major (weak and uninspiring reputation)
-‘plege card’ cut nhs waiting lists, reduced primary school class sizes- w/out increasing tax
-party election broadcast- positive and inspiring- sucessfully reached beyond labours typical core voters
Better than c/major - talked straight to screen
-press favourite- sun backing blair was significant
-conservatibes not serious ‘sleaze and disunity’
1997 reason for blair success- social
-blair effectively broadened the social appeal of new labour as class dealignment increased
-class: increase 10% from middle classes
-age: across all- even 65+ vote labour 41%L and 36%C
-gender: females vote more labour 44%l 32% c
More family minded policies- free nursery places
Growing proportion in workforce
1997 reason for blair success- - issues
-modernised labour
Moving away from nationalisation- abolish cluse iv ‘common ownership’
Emphasi on constitutional reform- same as lib dem
However l encourage lib dems to vote tactiaclly for labour
-tough on law and order
-highligted need to cut school class sizes and reduce hospital waiting lists
-many similar between l and c
1997 reason for blair success- leader
-major suffered reputation ‘bastards’- weak and unable to hold party together (europe)
-blair- young (44y/o) , charismatic leader ‘britain deserved better’
Modern, roll uo sleaves, presidentiala style- strong and decisive
1997 reason for blair success- competant party
-conservatives- sleaze and allegations of scadal
Damaged deep division over europe
Eu membership
1997 reason for blair success- economy
-black wedesday 1992- c lost reputation
Forced to take out of european exchange rate mechanism- economy plummeyed
-even though by 1997 economy start to recover
2017 results
-hung parliament- fell 9 short of majoruty- so had supply and ocnfidence with dup
C 317 (dwon 13) 42%
L 262 (up 30) 40%
Snp 35(diwn 21) 3%
Lib dem 12 (up4) 7.5%
DUP 10(up2)
Ni only out of 20 constituencies
2017 campaign
-journalist andrew rawnsly said that c 2017 campaign as ‘worst in living memory’
-tm appeared ‘robotic’’ in speeches
-didnt participate in tb debates
-labour
For the many not the few- resonate with voters
Labour manifesto- increase public spending in all sectors
Reasons for mays sucess in 2017- social factors
-class less important - labour only 4% behind than c in abc1
-gender- women equally split
-men favour c by small margin
-age -turnout 64% 18-24 increase (overrwhelming support l)
-84% trnout for over 70
-education wa significant
-low qualified- c 22%+ than l
- high- l 17%+ than c- due to tuition fees being abolished
Reasons for mays sucess in 2017- issues
-brexit- may called it ‘brexit election’’
C harsher- ex-ukip voters for c
L soft brexit-more support from remainers in lib dem and green
-ipsos mori poll voters preferred c over l on 5?7 issues that are important
-brexit, econmy, education, tax, immigaration
But labour won on nhs and housing
Reasons for mays sucess in 2017- leader
May more popular than corbyn
Corbyn seen as untrustworthy
Reasons for mays sucess in 2017-competant party
-skinner- head political reasercher at ipsos mori said the election- ‘the conservatives lead on competance issues is one of the best we have recorded in many years’
Reasons for mays sucess in 2017-economy
-voters mistrust labours proposed economic agenda
-c 55% support than 18% on economy
Reasons for mays sucess in 2017- media
-2017 highest uk circulating papers- sun and daily mail-v conservative
-social media- corbyn stornger as spent more
Cobyn facebook 2x likes than may
Hashtag for the many on twitter- apeal younger voters
2019 results
C 80 seat majority
L worst election since 1931
C 365(up 38) 44%
L 203 (down 59) 32%
SNP 48(up 13) 4%
Ld 11(down 1) 11.5%
2019 campaign
‘Get brexit done’
Jcb through wall labelled gridlock
-labour- ambitious and expensive- skeptical- eg. Free broadband for all
Reasons for boris suceess 2019 - social
-regional- fall of the red wal’ - contributed that many voted leave
-c attract more working class voters
6%up DE
20% up C2
-age- v accurate
56% 18-24 l
57% 60-69 c
Reasons for boris suceess 2019- rational choice
Opinion pols suggest that 25% of voters decided just days before election
Reasons for boris suceess 2019-issues
-get brexit resolved
C ‘get brexit done’’
L second referendum
-brexit party not putting candidateas against leave supporting c mps
-nhs important
C promise significant increase in health
Reasons for boris suceess 2019- most united party
- c as boris removed th whip from tory mps who voted to settle with a no deal Brexit
-l divided over corbyn more radical and new labour
Reasons for boris suceess 2019- economy
-many didnt trust l
An independant institute for fiscal studies- declared labours spending plans underfunded/unrealistic
Reasons for boris suceess 2019- trust in leader
-corbyn lost due to failure to tackle anti-semitism within party
-many found his policies to far left wing and radical- eg. Spending and nationalizqtion- especially for moderate, floating voters
-corbyns satisifaction in ratings in election lower than any opposition leader since the 1970s
-opinion poll after election said that 43% stated poor leadership as reason for note voting labour
Reasons for boris suceess 2019-media
-newspaper coverage of corbyn- generally negative
-boris in leadership debates- the first one in 2017 got 7 mil views with 1 mill under 30s, age group who mostly abndoned tradtitional news
-johnon- more pm like and more likeable
-c more in socal media- facebook tragetted adds for older voters in amrginal constituencies esp about brexit
Turnout across years
1979- 76%
1997- 71%
2017- 69% (up 3% from 2015)
2019- 67%
Total percentage for 2 main parties
1979- 81%
1997- 74%
2017- 82% (highest since 1976)
Plan-evaluate the view that media plays a significant role in influenicng voting behavoir in uk elections
Broadcast nedia
Print media
Social media
-explain what is before content
Broadcast media
Tv
Radio
Bbc
Print media
Newspapers,
Journals
Magazines
Sun
Social media
Websites and apps
Instagrams, facebooks and twitteer
Broadcast media- significant role in influencing behavoir yes
-coverage of leaders- visual images- corbyn
-party political broadcast- new labour
-televised debates
-theresa may- not tv debate 2017- looked weak
-2010 first one- 9 milll views
-clegg- strong- lib-dem 28% votes, 2019 11.6% votes
-opinion polls- often commissioned by bbc and channel 4 news in elections
-more older people consume
Broadcast media- not significant role in influencing voting behavoir
-less biased- bbc charter- legal
-no advertising time- only party political broadcast (but could say sensationsalise)
-good tb performance not = election sucess
Clegg did well but 2 parties dominate- loyalty
Print media- significant role in influencing voting behavoir in uk elections
-influcence of major paper important- esp switches
Murdoch backed blair 1997
Indicated to many,eg middle class, labour viable option
-utalised by politicians- thatcher and calf appeal to agriculture
-read online- despite print decreasing
-can be biased
Unlike bbc- despite regulations from independant press standards organisation- after levenson inquiry
-add to echochamber0 read newspapers which agree with views
Print media- NOT significant role in influencing voting behavoir
-circulation most newspapers declined
Feb 2022- daily mail print circulation fall below 900,000 for first time in over 100 years
-read newspapers that already agree with view
Sun readers tory
Media not most significant impact- long term demographic more
Social media- signifcant role in influencing votiing behaboir
-echochamber- mild political views may be taken deeoer
-partes can advertise and publicise chapelu, mps websites
Eg,. Bojo verified insta- may seem for viewers that his info is more reliable
-twitter posts often used in news- eg. Criticisms
Cancel culture- boris ‘party gate’ lots of anger online 2020 and 2021
-targeted ads
Vote leave- £2.7 mill facebook ads- 2016
-influce especially younger voters
Yougov 2017 said that 18-24y/o influenced by
50% social media
28% newspapers
-attack ads
Tory accused SNP and sinn fein proppiing up ed miliband causing ‘chaos for britain’
Social media- NOT influencing voting behavoir significantly
-not seen as reliable-fake news
Other sources more trustworthy- broadcat
2019 labour claimed leaked tory documents suggested nhs ‘up for sale’ completely rather than just drugs
-not all voters use social media
Example of opinion poll senationalised
2016 daily express
98% say no to brexit deal- want to leave now rather than after brussels talk
Acc phone survey of daily express readers only, and only 1% of those readers participated- disproportionate to populatoin
Thatcher and econ
Greatly influenced hayek and regularly quotes him in cabinet
Iea- institue econ affair clsoely associated with hehr too
