XII - Currency Exchange-5 Flashcards
real exchange rate
equation
FX market participants
sell / buy side
Sell side: 大型国际银行/地区性银行
1. corporate accounts
2. investment accounts (real money, leveraged-professional traders)
3. gov accounts (gov, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, SWF)
4. retail accounts
FX: direct quote/indirect quote
及进一步
direct: local currency as price CNY/USD
indirect: local as base USD/CNY
容易产生混淆,故引入currency pair货币对概念
外汇市场中:
- 最多的交易方式是
- 交易量最大的参与者是
- 交易量最高的货币对是
- 交易目的最多的是
- swap transaction
- financial clients
- USD/EUR
- 境外投资组合及投机交易(国际贸易相关交易只占少数)
外汇市场的四种工具
spot
forward
swap
option
spot transaction
2特点
- T+2 到账
- 只占外汇交易中的一小部分
forward contract
日期确定规则
eg. 3-month contract
today Oct 18 →T+2 = Oct 20
↓
Jan 20
↓
closest business day
FX swap
definition
外汇掉期
simoutaneous
offsetting spot
+
new forward
FX option
definition
外汇期权
with a premium or fee,
purchaser have the right, but not obligation
to do FX transaction in the future
FX quote convention
two-sided price
bid: price that bank buy
offer: price that the bank sell
bid always lower than offer
arbitrage/ triangular arbitrage
套汇/三角套汇
- forward premium
- forward discount
- 表现为
远期升水
远期贴水
forward points 点差
1 point = 1/10000
Interest Rate Parity (IRP)理论等式
推导、形式,及结论
推导:(1+id) = Sf/d (1+if) (1/Ff/d)
结论:the currency with the higher interest rate will always trade at a discount in the forward market
Interest Rate Parity (IRP)理论
另一种演变:
计算远期汇率增长率
约等于if - id
两国利率差
Interest Rate Parity (IRP)理论
含maturity的演变
及含义
含义:forward rate points随时间变长,绝对值变大
ideal currency regime
3原则
及推论
3原则:汇率严格钉住;货币自由兑换;国内货币政策独立
三者不可能同时实现,因此没有完美的汇率管理体制。(不可能三角)
examples of No Legal Tender
currency regime
- dollarization: a country can share dollar’s currency credibility, but doesn’t share the same credit worthiness
- EMU - Euro.
seigniorage
铸币税
9 exchange rate regimes
- no own currency: dollarization, Euro
- have own currency: currency board system, fixed peg, target zone, crawling pegs, fixed peg with crawling bands, managed float, independentlt floating
currency board
2 特点
- 央行不发钞,其他商业银行发钞
- 汇率完全钉住
fixed peg
2特点
1。正负1%
target zone特点
正负2%
crawling peg
特点
- 分为passive/ active crawling
- passive: 阶段后调整
active: 阶段前调整,因此有能力影响未来通胀预期