IX-employment,inflation,indicator-5

Question 1

labor force

Answer 1

number of people either have a job or

actively looking for a job

Question 2

Activity ratio/participation ratio

Answer 2

labor force/total population of working age

Question 3

举一些working age但又不在work force

的人群例子

Answer 3

full-time student

voluntarilly unemployed

Question 4

types of unemployment

Answer 4

• long-term:3-4月，but still looking
• frictional暂时性，looking for better
• structural：worker don’t have the skill to match the jobs available
• cyclinical

Question 5

unemployment rate

Answer 5

unemployment/labor force

Question 6

discouraged worker

两点

Answer 6

• person who stops looking for a job
• not in labor force,但经济复苏之初又出来找工作，进入labor force,导致失业率上升

Question 7

NAIRU ./ NARU

Answer 7

non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment

natural rate of unemployment

由于结构性失业造成的自然失业率，在此失业率下不会造成wage pushed inflation

Question 8

disinflation

Answer 8

反通货膨胀

still inflation, but down to slower speed

Question 9

Hyperinflation两特点

Answer 9

1. increased velocity of money
2. increased supply of money

Question 10

headline inflation/

core inflation

Answer 10

headline: 包含所有商品服务价格，波动较大

core : exclude food and energy (受进出口影响小，稳定反映国内经济)

Question 11

Passche index

与

Laspeyres index

区别

Answer 11

P index - current composition of basket (Q in current year)

L index - basket composition held constant (Q in base year)

Question 12

Laspayres index

1. 缺陷
2. bias direction
3. 解决方法

Answer 12

1. substitution bias, upward bias, 引入Paasche price index/ Fisher Index/ Chained index
2. quality bias, upward, 引入hedonic pricing 特征价格法
3. new product bias, upward bias, 在篮子中引入新产品

Question 13

Fisher Index

1. equation
2. 特点

Answer 13

2. 能最好地解决Laspayres Index的substitution bias

Question 14

cost-push inflation

demand-pull inflation

本质及诱因

Answer 14

cost-push:

总供给不足

诱因：wage, raw material

demand-pull：

总需求超量

诱因：与AD曲线平移因素相同

Question 15

an indicator

to predict

cost-push inflation

Answer 15

unit labor cost indicator

ULC = W / O

W= labor compensation per hour per worker

O=output per hour per worker

Question 16

cost-push inflation

两个前提

Answer 16

两个前提：

1. NAIRU/NARU, unemployment rate低于此值，才会发生
2. ULC=W/O, W涨幅快于O时，才会发生

Question 17

怎样理解NAIRU

Answer 17

当经济体中失业率小于自然失业率，工资存在上涨压力，引起cost-pull inflation

Question 18

an indicator

to predict

demand-pull inflation

Answer 18

ratio of nominal GDP/money supply

“velocity of money”

尤其当分母变化,money supply增量超过GDP时

产生通胀压力

Question 19

diffusion index

Answer 19

扩散指数

某指数各成分变动的一致性情况

Question 20

10 examples of

leading economic indicators

Answer 20

1. work hours
2. initial claims for unemployment insurance
3. producers’ new orders for consumer/capital
4. vender delivery time
5. new house building permit
6. stock market - S&P 500
7. money supply - M2
8. interest rate spread, 10年比隔夜 (越大越好)
9. consumer expectations
10. credit index

Question 21

3 examples of

coincident economic indicators

Answer 21

real personal income

sales

industrial production index

Question 22

6 examples of

lagging economic indicators

Answer 22

1. average duration of unemployment
2. inventory-sales ratio
3. change in unit labor cost
4. bank prime lending rate
5. CPI/inflation
6. consumer debt/commercial and industrial outstanding loan

Question 23

in a recession, companies are most likely to adjust their stock of physical capital

by:

Answer 23

not maintaining equipment

Question 24

A central bank will most likely allow the economy to self-correct in periods of:

Answer 24

Stagflation.

because no short-term economic policy is thought to be effective

Question 25

in which inflation senario does SRAS decrease

due to increasing wage demands?

Answer 25

both cost-push and demand-pull