IX-employment,inflation,indicator-5 Flashcards
labor force
number of people either have a job or
actively looking for a job
Activity ratio/participation ratio
labor force/total population of working age
举一些working age但又不在work force
的人群例子
full-time student
voluntarilly unemployed
types of unemployment
- long-term:3-4月，but still looking
- frictional暂时性，looking for better
- structural：worker don’t have the skill to match the jobs available
- cyclinical
unemployment rate
unemployment/labor force
discouraged worker
两点
- person who stops looking for a job
- not in labor force,但经济复苏之初又出来找工作，进入labor force,导致失业率上升
NAIRU ./ NARU
non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment
natural rate of unemployment
由于结构性失业造成的自然失业率，在此失业率下不会造成wage pushed inflation
disinflation
反通货膨胀
still inflation, but down to slower speed
Hyperinflation两特点
- increased velocity of money
- increased supply of money
headline inflation/
core inflation
headline: 包含所有商品服务价格，波动较大
core : exclude food and energy (受进出口影响小，稳定反映国内经济)
Passche index
与
Laspeyres index
区别
P index - current composition of basket (Q in current year)
L index - basket composition held constant (Q in base year)
Laspayres index
- 缺陷
- bias direction
- 解决方法
- substitution bias, upward bias, 引入Paasche price index/ Fisher Index/ Chained index
- quality bias, upward, 引入hedonic pricing 特征价格法
- new product bias, upward bias, 在篮子中引入新产品
Fisher Index
- equation
- 特点
- 能最好地解决Laspayres Index的substitution bias
cost-push inflation
demand-pull inflation
本质及诱因
cost-push:
总供给不足
诱因：wage, raw material
demand-pull：
总需求超量
诱因：与AD曲线平移因素相同
an indicator
to predict
cost-push inflation
unit labor cost indicator
ULC = W / O
W= labor compensation per hour per worker
O=output per hour per worker
cost-push inflation
两个前提
两个前提：
- NAIRU/NARU, unemployment rate低于此值，才会发生
- ULC=W/O, W涨幅快于O时，才会发生
怎样理解NAIRU
当经济体中失业率小于自然失业率，工资存在上涨压力，引起cost-pull inflation
an indicator
to predict
demand-pull inflation
ratio of nominal GDP/money supply
“velocity of money”
尤其当分母变化,money supply增量超过GDP时
产生通胀压力
diffusion index
扩散指数
某指数各成分变动的一致性情况
10 examples of
leading economic indicators
- work hours
- initial claims for unemployment insurance
- producers’ new orders for consumer/capital
- vender delivery time
- new house building permit
- stock market - S&P 500
- money supply - M2
- interest rate spread, 10年比隔夜 (越大越好)
- consumer expectations
- credit index
3 examples of
coincident economic indicators
real personal income
sales
industrial production index
6 examples of
lagging economic indicators
- average duration of unemployment
- inventory-sales ratio
- change in unit labor cost
- bank prime lending rate
- CPI/inflation
- consumer debt/commercial and industrial outstanding loan
in a recession, companies are most likely to adjust their stock of physical capital
by:
not maintaining equipment
A central bank will most likely allow the economy to self-correct in periods of:
Stagflation.
because no short-term economic policy is thought to be effective
in which inflation senario does SRAS decrease
due to increasing wage demands?
both cost-push and demand-pull
