VIII-Production Function-Business cycle-5 Flashcards
how is economic growth measured?
- growth in real GDP
- per capita GDP - 生活水平，购买力
how is sustainable rate of economic growth measured?
increase in the economy’s productive capacity/
potential GDP
宏观经济学的production function
Cobb-Douglas production function
Y=AF(L,K)
Y = TKαL(1-α)
A: total factor productivity
Y = aggregate output
K = amount of capital available
L = size of labor force
TFP
及结论
total factor productivity
- TFP主要影响因素是科技进步
- like potential GDP, TFP is not directly observed, must be estimated
constant returns to scale:
definition
increasing all inputs by a fixed percentage
leads to the same percentage increase in output
宏观production function
体现的两个要点
- 同比增长 (constant returns to scale)
- 某一要素的diminishing marginal productivity
diminishing marginal productivity
可得到哪两个结论
- 经济发展不能全依赖于capital investment
- 发展中国家（由于更依赖投资）经济增速往往高于发达国家
Production Function 变形一
Robert Solow’s equation
for calculating
growth in potential GDP
Growth in potential GDP= growth in technology +WL(growth in labor) + WC (growth in capital)
Y = TKαL(1-α)
Δ%Y = Δ%T + WcΔ%K + WLΔ%L
WLWC: share of c, l in national income
Production Function 变形二
Solow’s equation
in per capita GDP
及结论
Growth in per capita GDP =Growth in technology+ Wc(growth in capital-to-labor ratio)
Y = TKαL(1-α)
两边除以L， y = T*(K/L)α
Δ%y = Δ%T * WcΔ%(K/L)
结论: 主要靠科技对人均GDP做贡献 (因只剩Wc)
capital-to-labor ratio
人均资本，capital deepening 资本深化
what are the main parameters to
observe
how sustainable growth is?
labor productivity
and
growth rate of labor productivity
labor productivity
equation
labor productivity
=
Real GDP/Aggregate hours
Potential GDP: a mesurable equation
Potential GDP = Aggregate hours worked + Labor productivity
Production Function 变形三
labor perspective
potential growth rate=long-term growth rate of labor supply+long-term labor productivity growth rate
Y = Y/L * L, Y/L=y=labor productivity
Δ%Y = Δ%y + Δ%L
four phases of business cycle
trough
expansion
peak
contraction
Durable goods
对经济周期的指示作用
because they have longer lives,
a weakeness in durables spending signals an economic weakness,
an increase signals a recovery
permenant income
与durable goods还是non-durable关系更大？
non-durables
durable goods 与 PDI关系大，无论其收入来源
in business cycle
productivity is most likely highest when
at the bottom of a recession
商业周期中，看capital spending的
一个重要/先行指标是
orders for equipment
(调整快)
商业周期中，
存货变化有什么特点
变动更剧烈，波动幅度大
商业周期中，
inventory-sales ratio 的变化情况
- approaching peak：上升，存货开始积压
- reaching the trough: 降低，销售增加
商业周期中，
Housing Sector有哪些特点
- Interest Rate：与house sale反向
- Income level: 与house sale 同向
- Investment: 往往overbuilding
- Demographics: 人口（家庭形成）是一个潜在长期驱动因素
商业周期中，
进出口部门有什么特点
- 进口反应国内需求（国内周期）
- 出口反应外部需求（外国周期）
- 汇率强弱将改变进出口
Business Cycle: Early Expansion
Economic Activity
Employment
Capital Spending
Inflation
- E.A.: stabbilize, begin to increase
- Employment: 未开始招新，失业率高，work overtime
- C.S.: 最先housing, durable, orders of light producer equipment
- inflation: remain moderate, may even fall
