VIII-Production Function-Business cycle-5 Flashcards
how is economic growth measured?
- growth in real GDP
- per capita GDP - 生活水平，购买力
how is sustainable rate of economic growth measured?
increase in the economy’s productive capacity/
potential GDP
宏观经济学的production function
Cobb-Douglas production function
Y=AF(L,K)
Y = TKαL(1-α)
A: total factor productivity
Y = aggregate output
K = amount of capital available
L = size of labor force
TFP
及结论
total factor productivity
- TFP主要影响因素是科技进步
- like potential GDP, TFP is not directly observed, must be estimated
constant returns to scale:
definition
increasing all inputs by a fixed percentage
leads to the same percentage increase in output
宏观production function
体现的两个要点
- 同比增长 (constant returns to scale)
- 某一要素的diminishing marginal productivity
diminishing marginal productivity
可得到哪两个结论
- 经济发展不能全依赖于capital investment
- 发展中国家（由于更依赖投资）经济增速往往高于发达国家
Production Function 变形一
Robert Solow’s equation
for calculating
growth in potential GDP
Growth in potential GDP= growth in technology +WL(growth in labor) + WC (growth in capital)
Y = TKαL(1-α)
Δ%Y = Δ%T + WcΔ%K + WLΔ%L
WLWC: share of c, l in national income
Production Function 变形二
Solow’s equation
in per capita GDP
及结论
Growth in per capita GDP =Growth in technology+ Wc(growth in capital-to-labor ratio)
Y = TKαL(1-α)
两边除以L， y = T*(K/L)α
Δ%y = Δ%T * WcΔ%(K/L)
结论: 主要靠科技对人均GDP做贡献 (因只剩Wc)
capital-to-labor ratio
人均资本，capital deepening 资本深化
what are the main parameters to
observe
how sustainable growth is?
labor productivity
and
growth rate of labor productivity
labor productivity
equation
labor productivity
=
Real GDP/Aggregate hours
Potential GDP: a mesurable equation
Potential GDP = Aggregate hours worked + Labor productivity
Production Function 变形三
labor perspective
potential growth rate=long-term growth rate of labor supply+long-term labor productivity growth rate
Y = Y/L * L, Y/L=y=labor productivity
Δ%Y = Δ%y + Δ%L
four phases of business cycle
trough
expansion
peak
contraction
Durable goods
对经济周期的指示作用
because they have longer lives,
a weakeness in durables spending signals an economic weakness,
an increase signals a recovery
permenant income
与durable goods还是non-durable关系更大？
non-durables
durable goods 与 PDI关系大，无论其收入来源
in business cycle
productivity is most likely highest when
at the bottom of a recession
商业周期中，看capital spending的
一个重要/先行指标是
orders for equipment
(调整快)
商业周期中，
存货变化有什么特点
变动更剧烈，波动幅度大
商业周期中，
inventory-sales ratio 的变化情况
- approaching peak：上升，存货开始积压
- reaching the trough: 降低，销售增加
商业周期中，
Housing Sector有哪些特点
- Interest Rate：与house sale反向
- Income level: 与house sale 同向
- Investment: 往往overbuilding
- Demographics: 人口（家庭形成）是一个潜在长期驱动因素
商业周期中，
进出口部门有什么特点
- 进口反应国内需求（国内周期）
- 出口反应外部需求（外国周期）
- 汇率强弱将改变进出口
Business Cycle: Early Expansion
Economic Activity
Employment
Capital Spending
Inflation
- E.A.: stabbilize, begin to increase
- Employment: 未开始招新，失业率高，work overtime
- C.S.: 最先housing, durable, orders of light producer equipment
- inflation: remain moderate, may even fall
Business Cycle: Late Expansion
Economic Activity
Employment
Capital Spending
Inflation
- E.A: accelerating
- Emp: 开始招人，失业率下降
- C.S.:开始购置heavy equipment
- inflation: pick up modestly
Business Cycle: Peak
Economic Activity
Employment
Capital Spending
Inflation
- E.A: decelerating rate of growth
- Emp:找人速度变慢，失业率仍降低，但速度变慢
- C.S:还在扩张，但slow down
- inflation: ACCELERATING
Business Cycle: Contraction
Economic Activity
Employment
Capital Spending
Inflation
- E.A: decline
- Emp: 开始失业，失业率上升
- C.S:最先表现在industrial production, housing, durable, new business equipment order
- inflation:decelerates but with a lag
Keynesian theory
1.认为什么产生了周期
2。对政府行为的主张
3。limitaitons
- AD的变动产生经济周期。
2。在衰退时扩大政府财政赤字，增加支出。虽承认市场调节的力量，但是太慢”in the long run, we’re all dead”
凯恩斯主义
limitations
- 政府赤字太大，易失控
- 也许短期有用，但长期易致经济过热，更大伤害
- 财政政策也存在滞后
Neo-Keynesians 理论要点
不仅有sticky wage (Kaynes)，而且所有price都有粘性
sticky prices/menu cost价格影响滞后性
↓
市场总会存在微小不均衡
↓
gov could always help
Monetarist School (Friedman)
1。认为什么产生经济周期
2。认为政府行为
- 反凯恩斯主义
- 央行无规律的货币供给导致经济周期
- 货币供给、财政政策都应一直适度，不要乱发货币
Neoclassical theory
1要点
2。认为什么导致经济周期
3。对政府看法
- 看不见的手，自由市场
- 技术进步（某一行业暂时）导致经济周期，拨动只存在行业内部，不存在全经济拨动
3。政府不应干预经济
奥地利学派（Haykek）
1。特点
2。认为什么产生经济周期
3。对政府看法
- 新古典主义分支
- 认为政府因素使得经济产生动荡
- 应限制政府作用，使市场尽快自身调节
New Classical School
1.学派名称
2。认为什么产生经济周期
3。政府主张
4。要点
- Real Business Cycle theory (RBC)
- external shock + technology影响经济周期
- 主张政府不要干预
- more focus on supply curve
Minsky moment
经济增长至顶峰，信贷扩大，资产泡沫
一旦有人对未来开始担心，市场遍崩塌
cartoon: walk over a cliff and walking on air
